Bob and Charlie discuss why the loudest voices in the AI debate are the ones with the weakest hand, Larry Ellison's reversal on his Oracle stock sale, the fight over the Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery deal, and the return of San Pietro, plus S3 positioning data on shipping, oil and the Treasury curve.

• Shipping active longs up 94% on the year to $23.2B while short interest sat at 13-month lows. Shorts only started rebuilding in August.
• USO clears the top of its range with short interest 40% below peak. The trade is about supply now, not the conflict.
• Shorts piled into the belly of the curve in UST ETF products since June 12 while the long and short end stayed flat.

Hosted by Bob Sloan, founder & managing partner of S3 Partners, and Charlie Gasparino of Fox Business and the New York Post.Chapters00:00 Opening

02:00 AI hysteria

09:27 Home of the brave

10:44 A very well coordinated press event

14:46 Larry Ellison's Oracle stock sale

17:49 Paramount, Warner Bros. Discovery and the state AGs

21:31 San Pietro, Wall Street's cafeteria

24:45 S3 data: shipping's one-way bet

27:24 Oil: the trade is about supply now

30:59 Treasury ETFs and the belly of the curve

35:40 Iran, gas prices and the midterms

41:21 Wrap

Follow:

S3 Partners: https://x.com/S3Partners

Bob Sloan: https://x.com/BobSloanS3

Charlie Gasparino: https://x.com/CGasparino

Nothing in this episode should be considered investment advice. The hosts are not investment advisors.

On the 25th anniversary of 9/11, Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan set the data and headlines aside to share their firsthand accounts of that day. From the trading floor to Ground Zero, they reflect on the first responders, the lives lost, and why that morning still matters.

Regular Risk & Return episodes return Wednesday, September 16th at 4pm.

The U.S. national debt crossed $40 trillion — the alert literally hit mid-recording. So why aren't markets panicking? Bob Sloan breaks down the basis trade quietly keeping the debt machine running, the symbiosis between Wall Street and the Treasury, and the thing to watch as September funding pressure builds: banks starting to tell hedge fund clients "no."

Plus: the arbs are back in the Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) deal as the $7M-a-day ticking fee looms, short sellers are positioning for an MLB lockout through the only publicly traded team in baseball (BATRA), and shipping stocks have become a live proxy for how long the Iran conflict drags on.

Chapters:

0:00 Opening

2:20 Paramount–Warner Bros.: the arbs are back

9:33 Media consolidation & the future of CNN and CBS

13:59 $40 trillion in debt — why isn't the market panicking

18:54 The basis trade funding the deficit

22:09 Funding pressure: what banks are telling clients

24:25 Teamsters vs. Amazon

28:45 Braves short interest & the MLB lockout bet

30:36 Sports valuations & the gambling bid

31:31 Shipping stocks: a proxy for the Iran war

36:47 The Trump crypto debate

41:41 Closing

Risk & Return returns after Labor Day for Year 2!

Hosted by Bob Sloan, founder & managing partner of S3 Partners, and Charlie Gasparino of Fox Business and the New York Post.

Follow:

Bob Sloan: https://x.com/BobSloanS3

Charlie Gasparino: https://x.com/CGasparino

S3 Partners: https://x.com/S3Partners

Nothing in this episode should be considered investment advice. The hosts are not investment advisors.

Charlie Gasparino of Fox News and NY Post and S3's founder and managing partner Bob Sloan on the leverage fight behind the $110B Warner Bros. Discovery deal — and the short unwind in the biggest IPO on record.

Bob reveals SpaceX shorts have covered hard since the August 6 unlock — 40 million shares in two days, roughly a fifth of the position — after S3 called the print at 210M shares against an actual 206M. Bob breaks down potential boxed positions, why the average short is still in the money, and the 2 billion shares of unlock stacked up between now and November.

PLUS Charlie's Post reporting: David Ellison is weighing moving Paramount out of LA and CBS News out of New York, with Atlanta in the mix for the latter, as Rob Bonta and Letitia James lead a state AG coalition trying to block the Warner deal. With a per-day ticking fee running against him and the AGs pushing trial to March, Charlie explains why people close to Paramount think the exit threat is the strongest card they've got — and what a combined CBS-CNN newsroom would actually mean.

Then Bob takes it to the data. Plus two bullish short-interest setups into earnings and why space keeps pulling in retail capital the way nothing else does.

00:00 — Bob on CNBC, and why positioning drives direction

06:00 — Paramount, Ellison, and the threat to move CBS out of New York

09:22 — What CBS and CNN under one roof would do to the news business

10:44 — Why the AGs' antitrust case doesn't hold up

14:15 — Earnings setup: Cisco15:20 — Earnings setup: Dillard's

16:37 — SpaceX: the short covering after the unlock

18:41 — S3 called 210M shares. The print was 206M.

19:07 — 2 billion shares of unlock between now and November

20:16 — Starlink, launch, rare earths: the case for a $10T SpaceX

23:06 — Why space resonates — pure risk, pure America

25:10 — AOC, Mamdani, and the New York business climate

28:27 — Will anyone actually leave? Griffin, Ross, and empty threats

For more information on the data featured in the episode visit S3Partners.com

Nothing in this program is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. This program is offered for entertainment and information purposes only.

SpaceX broke to new lows this week and the shorts aren't going anywhere before Thursday's pre-IPO lockup expiry. S3's data told the story before the tape did: the highest short interest as a percentage of float in the Magnificent 8, and roughly $9 billion in short-seller profits — S3 numbers Elon Musk responded to on X.com!

Charlie Gasparino and S3 Partners founder & CEO Bob Sloan break down the week's biggest market stories using S3's proprietary positioning data — showing where institutional investors are actually leaning.

This week: Situational Awareness dropped 67% in a month after a massive two-year run — and the fund's letter pointed at short sellers. S3's data shows short interest across the long book was flat to falling, with convert hedging — not directional bets — doing representing a significant amount of the short book. Plus: the details lock-up overhang hanging over SpaceX, shipping shorts signal no peace priced into Hormuz or the Red Sea, and New York's gambling suit against Kalshi.

For more information about the data featured in the episode visit S3Partners.com

00:00 — S3's banner week: the SpaceX data heard around the Street — and Bob's NY Post op-ed on New York vs. Cleveland

03:20 — SpaceX (SPCX): new lows, shorts in control — the Mag 8's highest short % of float and ~$9B in short profits

08:45 — Situational Awareness: down 67% in a month — did short sellers really take the fund out? The data says no

14:57 — Margin calls, price discovery, and Ken Griffin's cleanup crew.

17:55 — El-Sayed's one-point Michigan shock: Fetterman watch, Van Jones' "Blockbuster vs. Netflix," and why the prediction markets overshot

23:50 — Silicon Valley vs. Wall Street: the story behind the Situational Awareness blowup

26:06 — New York sues Kalshi: bucket shops, court precedent, and 150 years of the gambling-vs.-speculation fight

32:42 — SpaceX's $18B CapEx that spooked the market

35:09 — In dollar terms, SpaceX short interest now tops Tesla — inside the short-seller mindset

36:53 — The geopolitical tell: betting on peace means shorting shipping — and nobody is

38:08 — Trump's war dilemma: the JD Vance faction, the generals, and the midterm clock

41:57 — The risk the market isn't pricing: political violence — Weimar parallels, the horseshoe, and the "normies"

49:16 — Closing thoughts: Charlie's message to New York's business leaders

The Fed held rates steady — and markets resumed the sell-off. The warning was already in the positioning data: Korea's single-stock ETF blowup and a crossing Korea–Hong Kong spread foreshadowed the move before it reached U.S. shores.

Charlie Gasparino and S3 Partners founder & CEO Bob Sloan break down the week's biggest market stories using S3's proprietary positioning and short-interest data — showing where institutional investors are actually leaning, before the headlines catch up.

This week: SpaceX short interest climbs to roughly $24 billion — larger than Tesla's in dollar terms — with a lock-up bigger than the entire public float arriving days after Q2 earnings. Plus: shorts doubled their Fair Isaac (FICO) position before the post-earnings slide, Treasury ETF shorts are nowhere to be found despite the rate scare, and this week's S3 earnings model setups.

For more information about the data behind the charts visit S3Partners.com

00:00 — Fed holds, markets sell off: the yield curve, the oil shock, and AI CapEx

08:35 — Warsh's balancing act; NYC's second-home tax list, munis and "jump risk"

17:35 — Anthony Fauci testimony and political fallout

25:10 — Paramount–Warner Bros. merger and the antitrust fight

28:30 — S3 Earnings Positioning Model Forecasts

30:35 — AI positioning: short interest +90% YoY, hedge funds still underweight

32:15 — Sector map: tech's wide long/short gap vs. healthcare's crowded long

35:50 — SpaceX (SPCX): $24B short — now bigger than Tesla's

42:55 — Fair Isaac (FICO): shorts doubled ahead of the drop

47:05 — South Korea's single-stock ETF blowup — and what it foreshadowed

50:30 — Closing thoughts

Microsoft is down 19% on the year while Alphabet is up 11% and Amazon is up 7% — big CapEx bets, different outcomes. Bob Sloan takes Charlie Gasparino through what S3's data shows underneath it: short interest up 68% to a ten-year high, and active hedge fund longs heading for the exits at the same time. Both sides of hedge fund positioning, one direction: Sell Microsoft. Bob explains why.

In the neo-clouds, Bob explains why a 50-60% jump in short interest overstates the bearishness — much of the sector's financing runs through convertible debt, and convert arb desks short the stock to hedge it. However, as prices fell, some of that hedge came off, leaving a larger share of the book directional.

Plus memory, where US shorts have covered but Taiwanese conviction hasn't budged, and the Hong Kong–Korea spread narrowing after weeks on the S3 radar.

Away from the data desk: Charlie on why 12 state AGs are suing to block Paramount Skydance–Warner Bros. Discovery hours after the EU approved it, the $7 million-a-day ticking fee, New York City muni yields popping two weeks running under Mayor Mamdani, and what a senior JPMorgan executive told him about the Wall Street Journal's story on IRS chief Frank Bisignano.

Risk & Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan. Data drives news. News drives markets.

For more information about the positioning data featured in the episode visit www.S3Partners.com

00:00 — Intro

02:17 — Paramount Skydance–Warner Bros. Discovery: 12 AGs, one EU approval

04:54 — The TRO, the preliminary injunction, and the $7M/day ticking fee

10:07 — New York City munis: yields popping under Mamdani

13:06 — Capital flight happens gradually, then suddenly

19:08 — No shorts left in the bond ETFs — the air pocket setup

21:26 — The Wall Street Journal, Frank Bisignano, and what JPMorgan actually found

31:26 — S3 picks: Roper (ROP) bullish, Nasdaq (NDAQ) bearish

32:38 — Microsoft down 19%: the OpenAI exposure problem

37:05 — Neo-cloud shorts: hedge unwind vs. directional conviction

38:02 — Memory: US shorts cover, Taiwan holds

39:18 — Hong Kong–South Korea: the spread narrows

41:22 — Space, the IPO break, and never catching the bottom

Media analyst Rich Greenfield joins Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan to break down California's lawsuit challenging the Paramount-Skydance merger and why timing—not necessarily the legal merits—could determine the deal's future. Charlie and Rich discuss Netflix's competitive position, the economics of theatrical films, AMC's ongoing challenges, and the future of media consolidation.At the data desk Bob Sloan, S3 Partners founder and managing partner walks through this week's biggest positioning shifts. Oracle (ORCL) sees short interest nearly double while credit markets flash caution around AI spending and leverage. CoreWeave (CRWV) remains one of the market's most important bellwether stocks as directional short sellers continue pressing the trade despite a significant pullback. Bob also highlights a notable divergence between Healthcare and Technology positioning, where active stock pickers are driving healthcare exposure while passive flows dominate technology even as short interest continues to build.Charlie closes with a discussion on SpaceX's post-IPO trading, oil markets, New York municipal bonds, media consolidation, and the political landscape heading toward the next presidential election.Risk & Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan. Data drives news. News drives markets.For more information about the positioning data featured in this episode visit www.S3Partners.com.Chapters00:00 — Intro00:45 — Rich Greenfield joins: Paramount vs. California06:20 — Netflix, media consolidation & theatrical power11:45 — AMC, movie theaters & The Odyssey19:50 — S3 Positioning: Oracle (ORCL) turns bearish23:20 — CoreWeave (CRWV): record shorts & AI infrastructure26:20 — Healthcare vs. Technology positioning28:15 — SpaceX after the IPO30:00 — Oil, Iran and market risk34:00 — Politics, media and the 2028 race39:30 — NYC bonds, Rockefeller & capital flight48:15 — Wrap-up

S3 Partners founder Bob Sloan flagged Strategy's (MSTR) funding problem months ago. With Bitcoin near $60K and Saylor's break-even around $70K, Bob and Charlie Gasparino break down the negative carry, the asset-liability mismatch, and the "holes in the boat": if his 4% of all Bitcoin starts hitting the tape, the ~$20K technical floor of the last crypto winter comes back into play.

On the S3 radar: Pepsi (PEP), the bullish pick of the week into earnings, short interest up 46% against a rising price; Hong Kong, a tinderbox with shorts up 49% as China nears a deflation exit; memory/DRAM, where US shorts press SanDisk (SNDK) and Micron (MU) at extreme Z-scores while Korean longs, up 200%, crush shorts out of the market; and Circle (CRCL), down 19% on passive selling even with active longs at 2.5x shorts — a crack in the stablecoin duopoly.

Away from the data desk, Charlie reports on the Sun Valley media gathering — knitting class included — where Ken Griffin rejects the class-warfare label and sources say the Comcast–Charter deal everyone expects isn't happening. Plus a live text brawl between AMC CEO Adam Aron and analyst Rich Greenfield over dilution math, and Jay Clayton's nod for Director of National Intelligence.

Risk & Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan. Data drives news. News drives markets.

For more information about the positioning data featured in the episode visit www.S3Partners.com

00:00 Intro

02:36 Breaking news from Sun Valley: the billionaires' knitting class

07:15 Ken Griffin, class warfare, and the mogul lineup

15:36 Strategy (MSTR): Saylor below break-even

19:38 "Holes in the boat" — why $20K is Bitcoin's technical floor

23:00 Why Brian Roberts looks glum: Comcast–Charter math doesn't work

26:27 S3 pick of the week: Pepsi (PEP) bullish into earnings

27:14 Hong Kong tinderbox: shorts +49% as China nears a deflation exit

29:13 China Vanke and the state backstop

31:26 Memory/DRAM: shorts press SanDisk & Micron at extreme Z-scores

32:32 South Korea's "dragon's mouth": Active long positioning

35:01 Circle (CRCL): a cracking stablecoin duopoly

37:19 AMC text brawl: Adam Aron vs. Rich Greenfield on dilution

44:33 Wrap-up

Bitcoin's been cut in half — is the crypto winter just getting started? Charlie Gasparino and S3 Partners founder Bob Sloan break down the data behind the selloff, and why S3's positioning numbers on Strategy (MSTR) signal more pain ahead: a dilution spiral where the company issued shares, converts and then preferred shares, forcing an endless hunt for funding to hold the price up. Bob ties it to David Einhorn's classic Allied Capital short — you can't fight a stock while the money keeps flowing, in either direction.

Away from the data desk, Charlie gets into why Europe is at war with air conditioning, Comcast's NBCUniversal spinoff and the failure of the media-conglomerate model, and why independent media is eating legacy TV's lunch.

On the S3 side, four names are on the radar: Wendy's (WEN), a meme and battleground stock on ten-year-high short interest and a Reddit-fueled surge; the memory/DRAM sector, where shorts and passive money pile in as active investors flee; healthcare, the most crowded hedge-fund long. All capped with a July 4th case for American optimism!

Risk & Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan. Data drives news. News drives markets.

00:00 Intro — Bob Sloan, S3, and the "data drives news" ethos

04:57 Crypto winter: Bitcoin halves from $120K

09:23 Crypto infrastructure and the long-term bull case

10:15 MSTR: dilution death spiral?

16:13 Einhorn's Allied Capital — you can't short the funding

18:09 IBIT short interest: watching for the bottom

19:35 Europe's war on air conditioning

25:59 Comcast spins off NBCUniversal

30:41 Why the media-conglomerate model keeps failing

35:20 Independent media is winning — a million views on positioning

40:20 Wendy's (WEN): meme stock & battleground setup

43:26 Memory/DRAM sector: shorts and passive money surge

44:44 Healthcare: the most crowded hedge-fund long since 2021

53:33 July 4th sign-off: the case for American optimism