Munaf Manji and SleepyJ break down NFL Week 17 player props. The guys also preview Monday Night Football and give out a best bet.
MVP Race Analysis
Munaf Manji (0:00 - 5:28) kicks off the show with a preview of the NFL MVP race between Lamar Jackson (+155) and Josh Allen (-200).
Key Quote: “Josh Allen has done more this season with less than Lamar Jackson.”
Insights: Lamar Jackson played a standout Thanksgiving game, and his stats now rival Josh Allen’s. However, Allen remains the favorite because of his ability to perform under tougher conditions and Buffalo’s push for the playoffs.
SleepyJ (2:49 - 5:28) adds that the MVP award is largely quarterback-focused and dismisses Saquon Barkley’s candidacy despite potentially breaking Eric Dickerson's rushing record.
Key Quote: "If Saquon Barkley breaks the record, I still don’t think he gets the MVP because it’s been a quarterback award for over a decade.”
Player Props Breakdown
Quarterback Props
Justin Herbert (Over 20.5 Completions):
SleepyJ (9:24 - 10:54): Herbert is expected to rely on short passes against a weak Patriots pass rush due to the Chargers' running back injuries.Key Stats: Patriots rank second-worst in sacks.
Jordan Love (Over 247.5 Passing Yards):
Munaf Manji (10:54 - 13:56): Love’s strong history against the Vikings and the Vikings’ elite rush defense forces the Packers to throw more.Key Stats: Vikings allow 269 passing yards per game; Love recorded 389 yards against them earlier this season.
Alexander Madison (Over 44.5 Rushing Yards) and Amir Abdullah (Over 25.5 Rushing Yards):
SleepyJ (15:34 - 17:25): The Saints’ weak rush defense (ranked 3rd worst) makes this a favorable matchup for Raiders’ backs.Key Quote: “This is a game where the Raiders just turn around and hand the ball off.”
Jonathan Taylor (Over 97.5 Rushing Yards):
Munaf Manji (17:25 - 20:49): Taylor has exceeded 96 yards in the last three games and faces a Giants defense allowing 115 rushing yards per game.Key Stats: Taylor ran for 218 yards against the Titans in Week 16.
Jerome Ford (Over 17.5 Receiving Yards):
SleepyJ (21:31 - 23:26): With Cleveland’s injuries, Ford becomes a key check-down option for Dorian Thompson-Robinson.Key Stats: Ford recorded 39 receiving yards last week on 5 catches.
Mike Evans (Over 78.5 Receiving Yards):
Munaf Manji (23:26 - 26:49): Evans thrives against the Panthers, and Tampa’s reliance on him increases in a must-win situation.Key Stats: Evans has averaged 114.5 yards per game against the Panthers in their last six matchups.
Jake Ferguson (Over 4.5 Receptions):
SleepyJ (28:22 - 30:19): With CeeDee Lamb out, Ferguson becomes a primary option for Dallas, especially against Philadelphia’s strong run defense.Key Quote: "Dallas will have to play it safe, and Ferguson is their safest bet."
Chigoziem Okonkwo (Over 36.5 Receiving Yards):
Munaf Manji (30:20 - 33:38): Okonkwo benefits from Mason Rudolph’s reliance on him, recording 81 yards last week.Key Stats: Jaguars allow 57 receiving yards per game to tight ends.
Monday Night Football Preview
Matchup: Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
Game Analysis:
SleepyJ (37:01 - 38:50): Predicts Detroit (-3.5) to win due to superior motivation and the 49ers’ injury issues. The Lions are vying for playoff positioning, while the 49ers have “nothing to play for.”
Key Quote: “This line feels wrong. Detroit should be favored by at least seven.”
Player Prop Best Bet:
Brock Purdy (Over 254.5 Passing Yards):
Munaf Manji (40:58 - 43:12): Purdy will likely rely on passing due to Detroit’s strong rush defense and San Francisco's depleted backfield.Key Stats: Opposing QBs average 255 passing yards per game against Detroit.
Pregame.com:
Use code “HOLLY20” for 20% off NFL, bowl games, and other sports betting packages (35:12 - 36:06).
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