RJ Bell's Dream Preview

RJ Bell's Dream Preview

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RJ Bell's Dream Preview episodes

  • Fezzik's Focus - NFL Week 9 Review + Week 10 Quick Reactions

    SleepyJ and Steve Fezzik talk NFL Week 9 & 10. Fezzik becomes mayor for the day and we go rapid fire questions and Fezzik gives out an early best bet.

    Detailed Quote Analysis
    1. "I don't know how New Orleans lost to Carolina." (Steve Fezzik, 1:15 - 1:47)
    2. Fezzik expresses disbelief over New Orleans' loss despite statistical dominance. This reflects on the unpredictability in betting, where strong performances do not always align with outcomes. The analysis highlights how certain outcomes disrupt betting pools like Survivor contests.
    3. "Philly crushed Jacksonville… somehow they didn't cover despite winning the yardage two for one." (Steve Fezzik, 1:15 - 1:47)
    4. This insight points to betting nuances where final scores misrepresent on-field domination. Fezzik underscores that bettors face frustrations when obvious statistical advantages fail to translate into covered spreads.
    5. "Saquon Barkley looked amazing… that spin move backwards hurdle over that guy’s head." (SleepyJ, 1:47 - 2:37)
    6. This vivid play description emphasizes Barkley's standout athleticism, providing anecdotal evidence that showcases game highlights critical to player-based prop bets.
    7. "The New England-Tennessee game wasn’t as close statistically as it came down to." (Steve Fezzik, 3:31 - 4:10)
    8. Here, Fezzik discusses how misleading closeness in scorelines can be. He notes a trend involving teams struggling after playing Detroit, contributing a layer of strategic analysis for bettors.
    9. "Arizona… they haven’t had an easy game all year long." (Steve Fezzik, 5:24 - 6:05)
    10. Fezzik upgrades Arizona, crediting their resilience against a tough schedule. This shift to seeing them as above-average impacts betting lines and anticipations for upcoming matches.
      11. Player Statistics and Analysis
      • Saquon Barkley: Praised for his exceptional agility and unique backward hurdle move, illustrating his value in fantasy leagues and in-game prop bets.
      • Dak Prescott's Absence (8:49 - 9:29): Analysis of Prescott’s injury highlights a strategic downgrade for the Dallas Cowboys. Fezzik evaluates backup Cooper Rush as three points below average, showing Prescott’s impact on team performance.
        Team Statistics and Insights
        • Philadelphia Eagles: Despite outmatching the Jaguars in yardage, they faced difficulties converting those advantages into points. This analysis points to coach Sirianni’s aggressive play-calling that may affect future betting lines.
        • New England-Tennessee: The game appeared more competitive than it was, illustrating how surface statistics can mislead casual bettors.
        • Washington Commanders (7:05 - 8:22): Noted as setting an NFL record for average drive length without punting, even against weak defenses. Fezzik views this stat as significant even when considering the quality of opposition.
        • Arizona Cardinals (5:24 - 6:05): Analyzed as an improved team based on a tough schedule, reflected in their solid win over the Bears despite turnovers.
          Speaker Highlights with Context
          • Steve Fezzik: Renowned betting strategist, known for insightful analysis. His emphasis on trends and contextual interpretation of statistics offers bettors deeper strategy insights.
          • SleepyJ: Hosts the discussion, adding personal betting anecdotes, enhancing relatability and engaging with Fezzik's strategic depth.
            Conclusion and Final Insights

            Fezzik's analysis throughout the transcript emphasizes understanding hidden variables in betting, such as misaligned final scores, impactful player injuries, and team performances against weak defenses. Key takeaways include the importance of evaluating games beyond box scores and the inherent risks in betting trends that seem reliable but have situational caveats. From surprising team upgrades, like Arizona, to discussing underperforming Chicago and Cleveland, Fezzik provides nuanced context for bettors approaching Week 10.

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            36 min
          • The Inside Pitch w/Josh Towers

            Former MLB Pitcher Josh Towers and Scott Seidenberg tie a bow around the 2024 MLB season and take a look at the biggest Free Agents this offseason.

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            56 min
          • Dream Podcast - NFL Week 9 THE PICKS !!

            RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers break down the best picks for NFL Week 9. Dave Essler also chimes in with his best bet.

            Key Game Analysis:
            • Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears (3:42 - 7:39):
            • Fezzik’s Pick: Arizona, citing their extraordinarily tough schedule, which included playoff contenders, making them statistically undervalued. The Bears, in contrast, faced weaker opponents.
            • Stat Analysis: Arizona has been competitive with an average of 5.9 yards per play, despite tough matchups. The Bears were outgained by 0.6 yards per play.
            • Insights: RJ notes Arizona's strength of schedule adds about 3.2 points to their power rating, while Chicago’s easier schedule puts them at a disadvantage.
            • Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants (17:28 - 30:16):
            • RJ’s Pick: Washington, highlighting their offensive efficiency despite red zone failures in a previous meeting with the Giants.
            • Fezzik’s Counter: While he recognizes Washington’s strength, he backs the Giants, leveraging psychological factors like the Giants’ perception of missed opportunities from the previous match.
            • Key Stat: Washington ranks seventh in drive efficiency, showcasing a strong, resilient offense.
            • Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (34:40 - 37:39):
            • Scott’s Analysis: Picks Green Bay as an underdog due to Matt LaFleur’s strong ATS (against the spread) record. He mentions the potential return of QB Jordan Love and compares Jared Goff's weaker performances outdoors to his success indoors.
            • Trends: LaFleur is 24-11 ATS as an underdog, adding value to the pick.
            • Cleveland Browns vs. LA Chargers (38:41 - 45:34):
            • Mackenzie’s View: Backs the Chargers, noting the Browns' defensive injuries and Justin Herbert’s improved performance. The game is projected to be close due to weather considerations.
            • Fezzik’s Comment: Points out the Chargers’ historically solid road record and the Browns’ vulnerability without key defensive players.
              Additional Team Insights:
              • Tennessee Titans: Noted for a strong defensive record (top 10) but facing offensive inconsistencies.
              • Indianapolis Colts: Potential boost in performance with Joe Flacco as QB, creating optimism within the team for short-term success.
                Conclusion:

                This episode provided comprehensive betting insights focusing on strength of schedule, power ratings, and player performances. Fezzik’s main point on Arizona’s undervaluation against Chicago sets a compelling narrative, while RJ emphasizes Washington’s underrated offensive potential. The Packers’ strong coaching metrics under LaFleur and the Chargers’ road prowess add depth to their picks. The Browns' concerns with player injuries significantly impact their projections.

                Key Points:
                • 🏈 Strength of Schedule: Arizona has faced the toughest schedule, boosting their value in matchups.
                • 💪 Arizona’s Metrics: Despite a challenging schedule, they maintained respectable stats.
                • 📈 Washington’s Efficiency: Top-tier in quality drives, suggesting a robust offense despite inconsistencies.
                • 🏆 LaFleur’s Underdog Record: Historic success as an underdog adds weight to the Packers’ pick.
                • 🌧️ Weather Factor: Potentially impactful for the Browns vs. Chargers game.
                • 📝 Psychological Factors: The Giants seek redemption following close losses, affecting their betting angle.
                • 💥 Injury Impact: Browns' defensive issues might neutralize their offensive potential.
                • 🚀 Team Morale: Colts expected to see a boost with Flacco at QB.
                • 📊 Efficiency Rankings: Chargers and Washington noted for high-quality drives relative to league averages.
                • 🏆 Betting Trend: Teams facing difficult recent matchups may underperform in subsequent games.


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                  1 hr 25 min
                • NFL Week 9 Player Props + MNF Preview !!

                  Munaf Manji and Steve Reider talk NFL Week 9 player props. The guys have been red hot and are looking for another best bet winner.

                  Key Highlights & Quotes Analysis:
                  • Start (0:00-3:15): Munaf introduces the show, emphasizing its success with a strong track record of prop bets (7-1 on Monday Night Football props). He humorously notes Steve's Halloween costume and recaps their team's recent success (10-2 record).
                  • Texans’ Stephon Diggs Injury (3:16-5:44): Munaf reveals Stephon Diggs' season-ending ACL injury suffered in Week 8, impacting Houston’s offensive strategy. Steve acknowledges Diggs' contribution but highlights potential struggles for Houston, particularly in matchups against strong defenses like the Jets.
                  • Ravens Trade (5:45-7:06): Discussion shifts to the Ravens acquiring Deontay Johnson. Steve calls it "an embarrassment of riches," noting Baltimore’s potent offense but questioning the need for more wide receivers instead of defensive reinforcements.
                  • Quarterback Props (7:44-12:09): Steve selects Jalen Hurts for over 213 passing yards due to his enhanced potential with key receivers back in play. Munaf supports Dak Prescott over 1.5 passing touchdowns, citing the Falcons' weak pass defense.
                  • Running Back Props (12:27-17:01): Steve backs Bijan Robinson for over 71 rushing yards against the Cowboys, citing Dallas’ poor rush defense. Munaf adds Kyren Williams over 91.5 yards, banking on his consistent recent performances and Seattle's struggling rush defense.
                  • Wide Receiver Props (17:02-21:43): Steve opts for Tank Dell over 56 receiving yards as Houston’s main target against the Jets, highlighting CJ Stroud’s need to pass. Munaf chooses Jamar Chase over 83.5 receiving yards against the Raiders, noting his crucial role with potential injuries sidelining T. Higgins.
                  • Final Player Props (21:43-26:10): Steve targets Breece Hall under 67.5 rushing yards against Houston, pointing to the Jets’ reliance on passing due to a struggling run game. Munaf predicts success for Devon Achane’s receiving yards over 34.5, emphasizing Buffalo’s vulnerability to receiving backs.
                    Detailed Game Analysis:
                    • Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Preview (26:11-32:57): Munaf and Steve agree that Kansas City’s strengths outweigh Tampa Bay’s, favoring a Chiefs victory despite an 8.5-point spread. They suggest teasing down the Chiefs and potentially betting on Tampa Bay’s team total under 17.5 points due to KC’s strong defense.
                    • Joe Flacco’s Role & Player Prop Best Bet (34:52-40:49): Steve notes Anthony Richardson’s struggles with decision-making, leading to Joe Flacco starting for the Colts. Their best bet is Flacco over 228.5 passing yards, aligning with Minnesota’s weak pass defense.
                      Conclusion:

                      This week’s analysis highlights the impact of injuries and team strategies on betting outcomes. Munaf and Steve’s insights point to Houston’s offensive adaptation post-Diggs, Baltimore’s potential overload of receivers, and strategic plays involving quarterbacks and running backs like Jalen Hurts, Bijan Robinson, and Devon Achane. The Chiefs’ Monday Night dominance over Tampa Bay is reinforced through team metrics, and Flacco’s starting role with the Colts offers intriguing betting angles.

                      Team and Player Statistics:
                      • Texans: Diggs’ injury likely shifts reliance to Nico Collins and Tank Dell.
                      • Ravens: Second in EPA, underscoring offensive depth but hinting at defensive needs.
                      • Cowboys: Poor rush defense, influencing Bijan Robinson’s projection.
                      • Falcons’ Defense: Weak against passing, backing bets on Prescott.
                      • Jets vs. Texans: Expecting strategic passing due to defensive matchups.
                      • Vikings’ Defense: Strong rush defense, weak against passing, pivotal for Flacco’s bet.


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                        47 min
                      • CFB Week 10 Preview + Best Bets !!

                        Griffin Warner and Big East Ben break down the biggest games for CFB Week 10. The guys also give out best bets.

                        The Week 10 preview on the Need for Screens College Football Podcast, hosted by Griffin Warner and Big East Bend, offers in-depth analysis on notable matchups, betting strategies, and team/player statistics. Here's a detailed breakdown of key discussions, including timestamps, quotes, and insights.

                        Introduction (0:31 - 2:31)

                        Warner opens with a recap of previous picks, noting Big East Bend’s overall 4-2 success last week, despite an “egg” laid by Illinois. They discuss current bets at “50% for the season,” hoping for a strong finish, especially in bowl season.

                        Ohio State vs. Penn State (2:32 - 5:39)

                        Warner introduces Ohio State as a 3.5-point road favorite over Penn State, with a total score line at 45. Big East Bend laments the noon kickoff, feeling it dampens Penn State’s home advantage, especially since Ohio State has dominated Penn State, winning 11 of the last 12 meetings. Key injury concerns focus on Penn State’s quarterback, Drew Aller, who is doubtful due to a knee injury sustained against Wisconsin. Despite Penn State’s replacement QB, Big East Bend favors Ohio State, citing its historical control over Penn State. Warner echoes this, predicting Ohio State’s win, adding he’s “going under 45.”

                        Oregon vs. Michigan (5:40 - 8:12)

                        The hosts analyze Oregon as a 14.5-point favorite on the road. Big East Bend questions the line, mentioning Michigan's quarterback retirement announcement, which Warner predicts will move the line up due to Michigan’s weakened offense. Bend criticizes Michigan’s struggles and confidently supports Oregon, remarking, “Michigan’s dead.” Warner agrees on Oregon and opts for the under 45.5, doubting Michigan’s scoring capabilities.

                        Texas A&M vs. South Carolina (8:13 - 10:56)

                        This matchup sees Texas A&M as a 2.5-point favorite on the road. Big East Bend highlights Texas A&M’s performance against LSU but cautions against a letdown after that emotional win. Recalling South Carolina’s close losses to LSU and Alabama, Bend believes South Carolina will secure a crucial home win. Warner aligns with this view, supporting South Carolina and emphasizing the impact of South Carolina’s home crowd.

                        Louisville vs. Clemson (10:57 - 12:49)

                        Louisville is a 10.5-point underdog against Clemson, with a high total at 63. Bend observes Clemson’s recent success against weaker opponents, such as NC State and Wake Forest, positioning them as “NIT teams.” He contrasts this with Louisville’s history of close games, even in challenging matchups, and predicts they will keep it competitive. Warner supports Bend, taking Louisville and betting over 63 points, indicating confidence in Louisville’s offense to match Clemson’s scoring.

                        Pittsburgh vs. SMU (14:29 - 18:32)

                        SMU enters as a 7.5-point favorite over Pittsburgh. Big East Bend praises Pittsburgh’s defense, citing their five-interception game against Ohio State’s Kyle McCord. Conversely, he critiques SMU’s easier schedule, favoring Pittsburgh to outperform expectations. Warner chooses the over 58 points, expecting a high-scoring affair, especially given SMU’s recent games.

                        Best Bets (18:33 - 22:52)

                        Big East Bend’s best bet focuses on Nebraska at -6.5 against UCLA, expressing confidence in Nebraska’s recent form and dismissing UCLA’s “two wins” as weak performances. Warner’s best bet is South Carolina at +2.5 over Texas A&M, consistent with his earlier analysis on home advantage.

                        In closing, Warner promotes a $10 off promo code “CATCH10,” inviting listeners to check in for next week’s updates. Bend humorously apologizes for prior audio issues and adds personal touches on the recording setup.

                        This preview covers critical Week 10 matchups with emphasis on injury updates, team momentum, and historical performance.

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                        27 min
                      • NFL Recap NFL Week 8 + Week 9 Lookahead

                        RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik and Scott Seidenberg look back on NFL Week 8 recap.

                        Summary

                        Week 8 Recap
                        • Jets vs. Patriots (Steve Fezzik, 0:35): Fezzik downplayed the Patriots’ 15-10 win, noting they were outgained by over 100 yards. He questioned the Jets’ timeout usage in the first quarter, citing coaching issues.
                        • Josh Allen as MVP Contender (Scott Seidenberg, 7:18): Seidenberg argued for Allen as MVP, noting his performance improvement, but RJ Bell countered, mentioning Lamar Jackson's similar stats. Bell also remarked on how MVP expectations have intensified in recent years, reflecting a shift in voting culture.
                        • Kansas City Chiefs (Mackenzie Rivers, 26:26): Rivers praised Mahomes' recent performances, suggesting the Chiefs are finding their offensive rhythm with solid defensive backing. However, Bell observed that despite the Chiefs’ success, public enthusiasm seemed lacking.
                        • Washington Commanders' Efficiency (Scott Seidenberg, 11:18): Seidenberg highlighted Washington’s strong net opportunities, suggesting head coach Matt LaFleur as a Coach of the Year candidate if Green Bay continued performing well. Fezzik noted their defense's red zone efficiency, an area the Jets could improve.
                        • 49ers' Rushing Dominance vs. Cowboys (Mackenzie Rivers, 50:05): The 49ers amassed 223 rushing yards, with rookie running back Isaac Arendo stepping up. Fezzik also noted Dallas’ vulnerability against the run, which hurt them in this game.
                          Week 9 Lookahead
                          • Patriots' Future Concerns (Fezzik, 45:43): Fezzik speculated that Bill Belichick’s coaching style, despite defensive successes, might be limiting offensive effectiveness.
                          • Rams’ Fragile Depth (RJ Bell, 53:29): Bell highlighted the Rams’ dependence on consistent health, as injuries to key players like Cooper Kupp and Nakua could jeopardize their season.
                          • Raiders and Dolphins (Seidenberg, 1:02:53): Seidenberg detailed how the Dolphins’ defense struggled to contain Arizona, who edged out Miami 28-27, despite a strong offensive showing from Tua and his receivers.
                            Conclusion

                            NFL Week 8 featured key observations on standout players, team dynamics, and evolving coaching strategies. Fezzik’s hesitation to upgrade the Patriots, Seidenberg’s backing of Josh Allen’s MVP case, and Bell’s discussion of Chiefs apathy illustrated deeper trends within the league.


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                            1 hr 37 min
                          • MLB World Series Game 4 Preview + Best Bets !!

                            Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner discuss MLB Word Series Game 4. The guys give out a best bet after a great MLB Game 3 podcast.

                            In "MLB World Series Game 4 Preview," hosts Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner examine Game 3, highlighting key plays, controversial calls, and betting strategies ahead of Game 4. The Dodgers, poised for a sweep, capitalized on early scoring and strong pitching in Game 3, putting the Yankees on the ropes. Munaf and Griffin analyze each team’s strengths and weaknesses while focusing on the pivotal role of Freddie Freeman and bullpen strategies likely to shape Game 4.

                            Game 3 Recap
                            • Dodgers' Momentum: The game started with a key home run by Freddie Freeman, which set the tone and rattled Yankees’ pitcher Clark Schmidt. This early push allowed the Dodgers to control the pace, leading to an eventual victory that held even against late Yankees attempts to rally.
                            • Umpiring Controversy: Griffin highlights missed calls, especially against Gleyber Torres, that may have stymied a Yankees comeback. Both teams felt the impact of inconsistent officiating, yet these calls seemed to slightly favor the Dodgers.
                              Player Performances and Analysis
                              • Freddie Freeman’s MVP Bid: Freeman's contributions, including early-inning homers, put him as a clear MVP front-runner. He has maintained steady, impactful performance, which has positioned him as the Dodgers' postseason standout.
                              • Yankees’ Offensive Struggles: Yankees stars Aaron Judge and Juan Soto underperformed, particularly with runners in scoring position. Griffin critiques the lineup choices, pointing out that DJ LeMahieu leading off limits offensive potential. The Yankees have only managed seven runs over three games.
                                Game 4 Preview and Strategy
                                • Dodgers’ Bullpen Strategy: Game 4 is expected to be a bullpen day for the Dodgers, using their depth to challenge Yankees hitters. The Dodgers have capitalized on bullpen flexibility throughout the series, allowing them to adapt and keep Yankees’ offense in check.
                                • Yankees’ Luis Gil: Starting pitcher Luis Gil has shown promise but is inconsistent. He last pitched against the Guardians, allowing two runs in four innings. His control issues, particularly under postseason pressure, could benefit the Dodgers lineup, who are poised to exploit any early weaknesses.
                                • Betting Lines and Predictions: Although betting odds have shown slight movement in favor of the Yankees, both hosts lean towards the Dodgers due to Freeman’s consistency and bullpen depth. Munaf wagers on a Yankees’ team total under 4.5, challenging their lackluster offense. Griffin backs the Dodgers to sweep, betting on a confident bullpen performance.
                                  Final Stats and Takeaways
                                  • Freeman's MVP Odds: Freeman is favored at -1800 to win MVP, leading with consistent scoring and a powerful postseason showing.
                                  • Yankees’ Offensive Woes: With only seven total runs across the series, the Yankees’ scoring drought is critical, especially given Dodgers’ resilient pitching and offensive depth.
                                  • Luis Gil’s Control Issues: Gil’s recent three-walk game against the Guardians adds pressure, as control and composure will be crucial in his matchup against the Dodgers.
                                    Conclusion

                                    With the Dodgers holding a decisive edge, Game 4 leans heavily in their favor. The Yankees’ slim chance relies on strong, early offense and solid pitching from Gil, though Freeman’s standout play and the Dodgers' bullpen depth signal a probable sweep to claim the World Series.

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                                    37 min
                                  • Fezzik's Focus - NFL Week 8 Review + Week 9 Quick Reactions

                                    Munaf Manji and Steve Fezzik talk NFL Week 8 recap. Fezzik and Munaf also discuss NFL week 9 and Fezzik gives out a few best bets.

                                    In the podcast hosted by Munaf Manji with Steve Fezzik, the two delve into NFL Week 8's significant performances, player stats, and contest updates, alongside Week 9 insights and power ratings.

                                    1. Survivor Contest Update (1:46): Fezzik shares updates on the Circa Survivor, betting on the Lions, and mentions his sixth-place position in the Circa Invitational despite recent challenges.
                                    2. Scoring Trends & Kickoff Rule Impact (3:08): Manji notes an 11-4 over trend, attributing it to new kickoff rules that enable favorable field positioning. Fezzik agrees, observing that quarterbacks need several weeks to find rhythm due to the shorter preseason.
                                    3. Strategy Shift (4:38): Fezzik highlights a shift where teams increasingly opt for long passes on third downs, offering higher returns, which aligns with aggressive plays seen from quarterbacks like Russell Wilson.
                                    4. Player Analysis - Jameis Winston (6:31): Winston’s impressive performance as a fill-in led to an upset over Baltimore. His efficient passing provided an unexpected offensive boost.
                                    5. Game Breakdowns & Phony Finals:
                                      • Detroit vs. Tennessee: Despite a dominant score, the Lions benefited from exceptional special teams and field positioning rather than yardage.
                                      • Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay: Although Tampa Bay led in yardage and first downs, they lost, indicating a misaligned scoreboard.
                                      • Jets vs. New England: Fezzik describes New England’s victory as misleading since the Jets outperformed statistically. Despite the Jets’ 2-6 record, he rates them above-average but cites quarterback struggles.
                                      • Chargers vs. New Orleans: Fezzik gives a slight upgrade to the Chargers after a well-rounded performance and identifies ongoing injury issues for New Orleans.
                                        1. Kansas City’s Defensive Edge (14:21): Kansas City’s defensive strength is emphasized, as the team’s solid defense would position them as favorites with a more potent offense.
                                        2. Coaching & Analytics (16:40): Fezzik underscores the importance of analytics in coaching, criticizing teams that ignore optimal two-point conversion decisions. He advocates for hiring analytics experts to guide decisions and avoid old-fashioned tactics.
                                        3. Power Rating Adjustments (20:14): In Week 9, Cleveland’s ranking sees a boost due to stronger quarterback play, while Dallas drops as defensive injuries expose vulnerabilities.
                                        4. Las Vegas Lifestyle Tips (22:06): Fezzik suggests Red Rock Canyon for scenic activities and recommends Mountains Edge Regional Park for a mix of sports facilities, providing family-friendly alternatives outside the typical Vegas experience.
                                        5. Dining in Vegas (26:42): Fezzik recommends Nobu’s beef Wagyu tacos and spicy rock shrimp, advising listeners on budget-friendly ways to enjoy high-end Vegas dining.

                                          Fezzik concludes with a college football pick for Connecticut over Georgia State, citing favorable game conditions for Connecticut.

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                                          32 min

                                        About RJ Bell's Dream Preview

                                        From the publisher's feed

                                        Winning sports picks from Las Vegas. Everything you need for free on the biggest games each week from Pregame.com's Wiseguy Roundtable. Alongside your host RJ Bell, we have professional bettor Steve…