Rock Stock Channel

In this episode, Lithium-ion Rocks! welcomes two esteemed ex-Rockwood Lithium senior executives.

We ask Gerrit Fuelling, who oversaw $200M in lithium sales from Asia, whether $40,000 capital intensity per lithium hydroxide paid by Albemarle for JV with Mineral Resource at Wodgina is the new norm? Are Argentina brines really as low cost as advertised? Where might we see lithium chemical prices in 5, 10 years? Gerrit addresses these more and also shares thoughts on Albemarle, Livent, Ganfeng, SQM and Tianqi assets and M&A growth strategies.

From KKR portfolio company to 4X+ return over the 2005-2015 10-year period, Rockwood Lithium is the source of Albemarle being one of the best positioned specialty chemical lithium producers on the planet. With continued bold bets on lithium will ALB CEO Luke Kissam pull off from the 2015-2025 10-year period similar returns to his ROC predecessor Seifi Gashemi?

Tim McKenna shares tales from 10 years in an important government, investor and public relations role at Rockwood Lithium which included a battle and then partnership with China's Tianqi for the world’s best hard rock lithium mine at Talison/Greenbushes . Tim also share his success with the US Department of Energy during the Obama administration and his views on the current US government perspective about critical battery raw material security of supply.

LithiumIonRocks! pays RESPECT to Altura with 30-minute update with James Brown following AJM's commencing commercial SC6 production.

 

Rodney Hooper & Howard Klein also discuss their impressions visiting the heart of America's lithium chemical competence from King's Mountain and Bessemer City, North Carolina to Silverpeak, Nevada. 

 

And take stock of the most likely USA sources of future mined lithium raw material from hard rock at the Piedmont Lithium Project in the historic Carolina Tin Spodumene Belt outside Charlotte, and Rhyolite Ridge, a boron-lithium searlesite hard rock situated amongst majestic mountains between Reno and Las Vegas, Nevada.

 

Not Investment Advice. DYOR. Read Disclaimer.

 

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Albemarle and SQM have followed Rodney Hooper and Livent’s above consensus Lithium DEMAND expectations - 1MT LCE 2025 is essentially now everyone’s “base case” - while also demonstrating again that these Tier One Oligopolists are struggling mightily to grow production of battery grade chemicals to meet such hyper demand growth.

Howard interviews the leader in lithium pricing intelligence @BenchmarkMin: Andy Miller guides us to which SC6, Carbonate and Hydroxide Price is Right, today, and through 2025. E5 also includes the most relevant lithium industry voices from ALB’s Luke Kissam, SQM’s Ricardo Ramos, Orocobre's Tara Berrie, as well as Morgan Stanley and BMO analysts.

As the mining world moves from sunny Florida to Toronto’s PDAC cold, Rodney and Howard discuss what the Mr. Lithium Market Scoreboard tells us after two healthier months to start the year amidst news flow from Galaxy, Altura, Nemaska, Sigma, Piedmont, Lithium Power, Lithium Americas, ioneer, Standard Lithium and others.

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Not Investment Advice. DYOR. Read Disclaimer.

The School of Rock = The School of Hard Knocks in Western Australia & Quebec in recent weeks.

The circumstances at Altura and Nemaska are meaningfully different, but nevertheless a great reminder that mining or brining of any type is hard. A Cost Over Run is No Fun, especially if timed when Mr. Market sentiment is looking glass half empty, and a project has substantial covenant-heavy debt.

I Feel Good Altura is a reflection of their "in production" status, relatively uncomplicated SC6 business model, modest working capital need and substantial insider support.

Nemaska's USD 280M hole is more complicated, but unlike the Dead Flowers Valentines sentiment expressed by many, there is still a Glass Half Bull prize in battery hydroxide from high grade hard rock in one of world's best sovereign jurisdictions proximate to the very large North America Auto OEM and battery market.

Will off-take partner LG Chem step up Gangnam Style? And/or will those holding NMX's 900 m shares be inhaling Softbank Vapors and Turning Japanese? Will other Lithium producers step in?

Rodney and I also discuss Livent’s Q4 results, SC6 pricing and the impact on Mineral Resources, Altura, Pilbara and Alliance Minerals. We welcome good news from bellwether Albermarle in Chile and attempt to read the China tea leaves with softer GDP growth amid tight credit, trade and EV subsidy uncertainty & increased local lithium production.

Not Investment Advice. DYOR. Read Disclaimer at www.libull.com

In London for episode 3 we discuss the evolving landscape for OEM's and the strategic vulnerability of non-metal producing countries and regions to which the US Senate received an earful this week from Simon Moores at Benchmark Minerals. China, through careful planning, has gained a significant lead in the production of lithium chemicals, batteries & electric vehicles. When will the rest of the world get its act together?

Peter Campbell, the Financial Times auto correspondent agrees there will be a major OEM casualty in the years to come, but which one? David Archer CEO of Savannah Resources discusses the EU lithium-ion battery supply chain and Portugal’s potential place within it.

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Not Investment Advice. DYOR. Read Disclaimer

Still bloodied 3 Months after the IPOs of Livent on NYSE and Ganfeng on HKSE, and 10 days before Livent reports Q4 and yearly results and provides 2019 lithium market forecasts, sales and EBITDA guidance, Rodney Hooper explains his widely liked Linkedin note detailing the four pillars to his investment thesis for Ganfeng.

Howard progresses the Philadelphia Freedom Declaration of Independence that not all Lithium is created equal @LiventCorp. The Real Thing.

It is also Lithium-ion Rocks! privilege to welcome our first ever guest,Guy Bourassa, CEO of a future Livent, future Ganfeng, Softback-backed Nemaska Lithium - Rockin' in the Free World. Low cost Hydro-powered Hydroxide from proprietary IP; a French Canadian Industrial Champion.

And finally, a Casey Kasem-like long distance dedication as we say Goodbye to the Year of the (Black) Dog and Hello to the Year of the Pig.

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Not Investment Advice. DYOR. Read Disclaimer

Lithium-ion Rocks! is a podcast to augment and bring to life the Lithium-ion Bull Investment Blogletter together with a focus on fundamental equity analysis from co-hosts Howard Klein and Rodney Hooper. www.libull.com @HowardKlein10 @RodneyHooper13