ROHR

The major influence of the recent surge in US and international longer-term interest rates has been the key driver for the US EQUITIES and other asset classes. And interest rates are likely to continue pushing higher, making them both a near-term and intermediate-term key trend influence.

In light of many new or fledgling traders, and even some experienced investors, who are not familiar with foundation level trend analysis, we have decided to share parts of our long-established ‘Price Trend Analysis Seminar’. While we already had a very well regarded technical trend training regime for many years, our involvement with London financial services firms into their mid-1980s Big Bang deregulation meant we had to explore the macro/fundamental and technical trend analysis nexus… this is the story of how that came about, and the important initial insights on ‘expectations’ (from 22:00 onward.) Enjoy!!

We last explored the nature of the long-delayed US government COVID-19 relief bill and some of its weaknesses back in December. Now the markets have a new ‘risk on’ psychology based on the Biden ARP proposal looking very propitious. That is despite the sizable hiccup on the GameStop volatility two weeks ago… and you will hear exactly where that fit in and why it was only a minor irritant.

We last explored the true nature of the ‘Santa Claus’ Rally (actually the ‘Santa Portfolio Manager’ Rally) earlier this month. The only problem is the normally bullish Santa has been mugged… more than once. Now it is time to explore the nature of the long-delayed US government COVID-19 relief bill, including some of its less than impressive fine line details which are leaving markets less bullish than some would have hoped.

Last Friday we explored the already aggressive international intermarket ‘risk-on’ psychology being reinforced by the ‘win-win’ nature of the US Employment report. It’s weakness further focused the US Congress on finally coming closer together on possibly passing a COVID-19 economic relief package. Yet there is also another key seasonal factor in the form of ‘Santa’... yet that’s not actually Mr. Claus.

Last Wednesday we explored the critical nature of the Biden state election certifications at the ‘nexus’ of politics and pandemic. That restored the more aggressive international intermarket ‘risk-on’ psychology. Even after stalling into early this week, the ‘risk-on’ psychology has been reinforced by the resurrection of the US government COVID-19 relief package talks. That made Friday’s US Employment report a ‘win-win’ event, even if weaker than expected… as it turned out was the case. See the formal release and Reuters article in the Notes.

Last Wednesday we explored the critical nature of the Biden state election certifications at the ‘nexus’ of politics and pandemic. That restored the more aggressive international intermarket ‘risk-on’ psychology. Even after stalling into early this week, it now seems to be in force again. That is on positive factors in ‘the next outlook’ along with renewed US government relief potential still at the political-pandemic nexus, and global macro expectations we discuss here.

As noted back on November 10th, US equities were going to be ‘on the ‘yin-yang’ of wide fluctuations due to contrary pandemic forces. In an unusually clear macro-technical development, the Biden election certification was a critical point at the ‘nexus’ of politics and pandemic. The ensuing international intermarket ‘risk-on’ psychology is driven by another factor we will share near the end of this discussion… and it is not yet being discussed by most analysts.

There were major US equities price swings in both directions on Monday. Yet the overall impact can be measured by where it finished, and the macro-technical implications from the global govvies. Of course, all of this is in the context of the major Pfizer vaccine announcement.

There were major US equities price swings in both directions on Monday. Yet the overall impact can be measured by where it finished, and the macro-technical implications from the global govvies. Of course, all of this is in the context of the major Pfizer vaccine announcement.