As we fast approach ASPI’s 2023 conference on deterrence and disruption, this week’s podcast begins with a conversation between conference speakers Bec Shrimpton and Dr Ross Babbage about military, political and economic strategy. They discuss Dr Babbage’s new book ‘The Next Major War: Can the US and its Allies Win Against China?’ and the importance of net assessment to allied deterrence and defence strategy.

Shifting to a more domestic focus, Dr John Coyne speaks to countering violent extremism expert Peta Lowe about terrorist prisoners and the controversial tools used to assess their risk of reoffending. They discuss how this risk assessment compares with other crimes such as child exploitation and extremely violent offences.

Mentioned in this episode: 
‘The Next Major War: Can the US and its Allies Win Against China?: https://www.cambriapress.com/pub.cfm?bid=966 
ASPI 2023 Conference: Disruption and Deterrence: https://www.aspi.org.au/event/disruption-and-deterrence-2023-aspi-conference

Guests (in order of appearance): 
Bec Shrimpton: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/bec-shrimpton   
Dr Ross Babbage: https://csbaonline.org/about/people/staff/ross-babbage  
Dr John Coyne: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/john-coyne  
Peta Lowe: https://www.phronesisconsultingandtraining.com.au/about

Music: "Righteous" by Ketsa, licensed with permission from the Independent Music Licensing Collective - imlcollective.uk

Ross Babbage on deterrence and defence strategy; jailed terrorists and the risk of reoffending

Policy, Guns & Money is produced by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).  

ASPI is an independent, non-partisan think tank that produces expert and timely advice for strategic and defence leaders. ASPI has offices in Canberra, Australia and Washington DC, USA.

News

After more than five years, ASPI is saying goodbye to the Policy, Guns and Money podcast. 

With over 200 episodes featuring interviews with experts from around the world, we are pleased to have brought you discussions on so many important topics in security and foreign affairs and hope you have taken something away from our many interviews.  

The podcast has discussed defence capabilities and budgets, mis and disinformation, cyber and technology policy, Russia and Ukraine, climate, China, counterterrorism and extremism, peacekeeping and the Women, Peace and Security agenda. We’ve debated submarines and armoured vehicles, ransomware and AI, nuclear non-proliferation and how to counter issues such as foreign interference.  

We’ve also taken stock of Australia’s relationships across the globe, in the Pacific, Southeast and East Asia and with the United States and Europe - identifying opportunities and challenges and debating ideas for bilateral and multilateral collaboration. We’ve covered the Quad, including its elevation to leaders' level, AUKUS Pillar One and Two, and the importance of the United Nations and opportunities for reform.  

Thank you to all of our listeners and speakers, the many ambassadors, think tankers, current and former government officials, and voices from civil society and industry, there are too many great speakers to name.  

While we are saying goodbye to Policy, Guns and Money, stay tuned for ASPI’s new podcast, ‘Stop the World’, launching in the coming days. Follow the podcast on Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and take a listen to the trailer here: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4HABcyghQUVyL3tdXqAtKR

Policy, Guns and Money – that’s a wrap!

This week, Dr Alex Caples speaks to Emily Harding from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies about offensive cyber operations and how to respond. They discuss how governments are integrating cyber operations with more traditional military planning, as well as responses to cyber-attacks, and how to deter in the cyber domain.

With more than 2 billion people in over 70 countries expected to vote this year, 2024 has been dubbed the year of elections. To explore election related foreign interference and disinformation, David Wroe speaks to Chris Zappone, the Digital Foreign Editor for The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald. They discuss the current state of the information environment, how it has evolved over time, and how social media and AI are being used to spread disinformation.

Guests:
Alex Caples: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/dr-alex-caples
Emily Harding: https://www.csis.org/people/emily-harding
David Wroe: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/david-wroe
Chris Zappone: https://www.smh.com.au/by/chris-zappone-hve6u

Music: "Young and Free" by Jonas Hipper, licensed with permission from the Independent Music Licensing Collective - imlcollective.uk

Offensive cyber operations; election integrity and disinformation

This week, David Wroe hosts a discussion on the latest from Myanmar, where the military regime that seized power in 2021 has recently enforced conscription amid plummeting military morale and steady pressure from armed resistance groups. ASPI’s Nathan Ruser and the Wilson Center’s Lucas Myers talk about how a range of opposition groups are making military gains, and where the civil conflict is likely to go in the coming months.

ASPI senior analysts Blake Johnson and Euan Graham join David Wroe to discuss geopolitics in the Pacific and what to expect in 2024. They dissect the significance of Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape’s recent visit to Canberra, Tuvalu’s election and Nauru’s switch of diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China.

Guests: 

David Wroe: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/david-wroe
Nathan Ruser: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/nathan-ruser
Lucas Myers: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/person/lucas-myers
Euan Graham: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/euan-graham
Blake Johnson: https://www.aspi.org.au/bio/blake-johnson

Myanmar’s junta under pressure; geopolitics in the Pacific

In this special three-part episode:

David Wroe speaks to economist, lawyer and author, Misha Zelinsky, about his new novel ‘The Sun Will Rise’, which is inspired by his experience covering Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the Australian Financial Review. They discuss the overarching theme of the book and its characters, as well as the message Misha hopes people will take away from the book. They also discuss the latest developments in the war, the risk of war fatigue, and why democracies must continue to provide support to Ukraine. 

Next, Alex Bristow speaks to Dr Arzan Tarapore, South Asia research scholar at Stanford University’s Asia-Pacific Research Center and Senior Fellow at ASPI. They discuss the upcoming Quad Summit in India in 2024, the topics likely to be discussed, and how the diplomatic partnership has evolved over time. They also explore how the Quad complements existing minilateral partnerships, and whether the group should have a bigger focus on security.

Finally, David Wroe speaks to Jennifer Parker, the Director of Defence Policy at the Australian National University's National Security College, and Dr Malcolm Davis, Senior Analyst in Defence Strategy and Capability at ASPI. They discuss Jennifer’s recent ASPI report ‘An Australian Maritime Strategy: Resourcing the Royal Australian Navy’ which calls for an urgent expansion of the Royal Australian Navy fleet to adequately protect Australia’s vast maritime interests. 

Mentioned in this episode: 

https://www.thesunwillrisebook.com/

https://www.aspi.org.au/report/australian-maritime-strategy


Guests:

David Wroe
Misha Zelinsky
Alex Bristow
Dr Arzan Tarapore
Jennifer Parker
Dr Malcolm Davis

Music: "Just Wondering" by Maarten Schellekens, licensed with permission from the Independent Music Licensing Collective - imlcollective.uk

Ukraine, the Quad and an Australian maritime strategy

In this special three-part episode:

Alex Bristow speaks to Brigadier General Linell Letendre, the Dean of Faculty at the United States Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs. They discuss the long-standing Australia-US cadet exchange programs and the importance of STEM in military education. They also discuss the repeal of the ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’ policy in the US, and how the culture has changed in the Air Force. Linell also discusses her use of the #warfighterscholar handle on social media, including what it means and aims to do. 

Next, Daria Impiombato interviews Irene Fellin, the NATO Secretary General's Special Representative for Women, Peace and Security. They discuss the Women, Peace and Security agenda, its role in the online space, and NATO’s role in advancing the priorities of the agenda. They also explore the dangers that female activists face today, and offer advice to young women considering a career in the field.

Finally, Daria speaks to Macarena Sáez, Executive Director of the Women’s Rights Division at Human Rights Watch. They discuss the connection between national security and human rights, as well as the current state of women's rights around the world. They also outline what Australia can do to promote women’s rights on the global stage, and explore how the erosion of women’s rights is often the first sign of a step towards authoritarianism. 

Mentioned in this episode: 
https://dppa.un.org/en/women-peace-and-security

Guests:

Alex Bristow
Brigadier General Linell Letendre  
Daria Impiombato
Irene Fellin 
Macarena Sáez

Music: "Long Walk" by Ketsa, licensed with permission from the Independent Music Licensing Collective - imlcollective.uk

Ross Babbage on deterrence and defence strategy; jailed terrorists and the risk of reoffending

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