In this episode, investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton of the University of Virginia to discuss the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, its implications for interest rates, and what the Fed can — and can’t — control. Professor Burton offers his signature mix of sharp humor and deep economic insight as he unpacks the paradox of record-breaking stock markets amid mass layoffs, explores historical lessons from the 1929 crash, and shares his contrarian view on U.S.–China trade.

00:00–02:30 – The Federal Reserve’s Next Move

Professor Burton predicts a 25-basis-point rate cut and explains why the Fed is often following — not leading — the market.

02:30–06:30 – The Stock Market Paradox

While the economy remains weak for many Americans, the S&P 500 keeps setting records. Burton explains how a handful of tech giants are driving the illusion of prosperity.

06:30–11:30 – Lessons from 1929

Burton takes us back to the Great Depression, connecting historical monetary mistakes with today’s overexpansion of the money supply.

11:30–21:00 – Tariffs and China

A candid, controversial take: Burton argues that tariffs weaken American competitiveness and that trade with China is beneficial for both economies.

21:00–24:00 – Predictions and Final Thoughts

Hunter tests Burton’s track record on Federal Reserve predictions — and hears a hilarious confession about Burton’s stock-picking history.

Guest Bio

Professor Edwin T. Burton is a Professor of Economics at the University of Virginia, known for his expertise in financial markets, monetary policy, and behavioral finance. He is a sought-after commentator on the Federal Reserve, market trends, and U.S. fiscal policy. With a distinguished academic and professional background, Professor Burton blends academic rigor with real-world insight in every conversation.

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Disclaimer:

The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

Produced by Awkward Sage Media.

In this episode of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton from the University of Virginia to break down the economic realities behind the AI boom.

While tech companies are pouring billions into artificial intelligence, the rest of the economy is slowing — a trend masked by massive capital expenditures in data centers, chips, and defensive spending. Professor Burton explores whether AI is truly creating value or simply inflating numbers, what hidden distress can be found in recent bankruptcies, and how high interest rates and chaotic tariff policies are reshaping business realities.

They also discuss the Fed’s upcoming decisions, the power of the repo market, and why inflation may be sticking around longer than policymakers hope.

Professor Edwin T. Burton is a distinguished economist, investor, and professor at the University of Virginia. His work bridges academic insight and real-world market behavior, with deep expertise in monetary policy, investment strategy, and financial market structure. Professor Burton is known for his clear, candid approach to explaining complex economic issues — and for being unafraid to question the consensus.

The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

Investor Hunter Craig sits down with University of Virginia economist Professor Edwin Burton to break down the latest economic signals as the Federal Reserve heads into a pivotal meeting. With the S&P 500 topping 6,600 and Treasury yields hovering around 4%, the professor explains why he expects a 25-basis-point rate cut—and why a 50-point cut would create messy arbitrage opportunities.

They also cover:

Professor Burton offers a candid view of the U.S. economy’s next moves and why caution may be the smartest investment.

Guest Bio

Professor Edwin T. Burton is a renowned economist and long-time faculty member at the University of Virginia. Known for his clear, incisive analysis of markets and monetary policy, Professor Burton has authored influential works on interest rates and investment strategy and is a frequent commentator on national economic issues.

Disclaimer

The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

In this Labor Day conversation, investor Hunter Craig and University of Virginia economist Professor Edwin Burton break down the latest forces shaping the U.S. economy. With the September 17 Federal Reserve meeting looming, the discussion covers where rates are headed, the real limits of Fed power, and the political tug-of-war over central bank independence.

Professor Burton also shares sharp insights into America’s mounting deficit, the shaky ground under AI-driven capital expenditures, and why tariffs act more like a sales tax than a growth policy. From inflation trends to Warren Buffett’s blunt solution for Congress, this episode delivers clarity on issues that impact us all.

Key Topics:

Why the Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points at the September 17 meeting

The misunderstood limits of Federal Reserve power and its reluctance to overuse the balance sheet

Central bank “independence”: myth, politics, and global cautionary tales

U.S. consumption and investment spending — and what they signal for growth

The AI capital boom: Porsche-level hype or Honda-level utility?

Why today’s equity valuations echo dot-com era bubbles

Tariffs as sales taxes and their hidden cost to American households

Why the U.S. deficit cannot be solved by “growing our way out”

Warren Buffett’s simple (but unlikely) fix for Congressional overspending

Guest Bio:

Professor Edwin T. Burton is Professor of Economics at the University of Virginia and a former partner at Rothschild, Inc. He has also served on the faculties of Cornell, Princeton, and the University of Chicago. His expertise spans financial markets, the Federal Reserve, and economic policy.

Disclaimer:

The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

In this sobering and thought-provoking episode, investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin Burton of the University of Virginia to unpack the harsh economic realities we face as the national debt approaches $40 trillion. Together, they cover everything from university research incentives to runaway entitlement spending, inflation, and the limits of Federal Reserve intervention. With a mix of wit, clarity, and no-nonsense economic insight, Professor Burton breaks down the problems that no one in politics seems willing to fix—and offers practical advice for protecting your financial future.

In This Episode:

Guest Bio:

Professor Edwin T. Burton is an emeritus professor of economics at the University of Virginia. Over the course of his 50+ year academic career, he has taught at multiple universities and is known for his deep expertise in finance, macroeconomics, and public policy. His insights cut through the noise to provide clear-eyed perspectives on America’s most urgent economic challenges.

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Liked what you heard? Subscribe to Rubber Meets the Road Economics and share this episode with someone who wants to understand the real drivers of our economy. For questions or comments, email us at [email protected].

Disclaimer:

The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

In this episode of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton to unpack one of the most pressing economic topics of our time: tariffs. With political posturing, trade wars, and rising costs dominating the headlines, Professor Burton breaks down why tariffs are effectively a regressive sales tax that hits consumers the hardest — especially those with lower incomes.

The conversation doesn’t stop at trade. Professor Burton also dissects recent inflation data, challenges the Fed’s narrative on expected inflation, and explains why the central bank’s actions don’t always align with market reality. From the politics of trade policy to the mechanics of interest rates and monetary supply, this is a conversation rich with insight and sharp critique.

Professor Edwin T. Burton is a renowned economist and professor emeritus at the University of Virginia. With decades of experience in academia, finance, and government policy, Professor Burton is known for his candid, data-driven perspective on fiscal and monetary policy. His work often challenges conventional narratives and focuses on the deeper forces shaping the global economy.

Disclaimer:

The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

As the S&P 500 hits record highs and inflation cools, you might think the U.S. economy is cruising. But Professor Edwin T. Burton returns to Rubber Meets the Road Economics with a more sobering take: the real warning signs are hiding in plain sight. In this episode, Professor Burton explains why the yield on the two-month Treasury is a more reliable predictor of Fed action than market sentiment—and why he thinks the economy may be heading toward a recession. He breaks down the pressures on U.S. debt markets, explains how AI might shift the labor force, and makes a compelling case for watching the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, not just their statements. If you want to understand what’s coming in the second half of 2025, this episode is essential listening.

Episode Breakdown:

Guest Bio:

Professor Edwin T. Burton is Professor of Economics at the University of Virginia, where he has taught for nearly four decades. A respected voice in both academic and financial circles, Burton’s career spans roles as a Wall Street economist, a financial strategist, and a sought-after commentator on monetary policy. He is known for his clear, no-nonsense analysis of complex economic systems and his ability to connect high-level financial trends to everyday realities. 

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Disclaimer:

The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

 In this crucial episode, Hunter Craig speaks with Professor Edwin T. Burton about the alarming implications of recent U.S. tariff policies, market volatility, and America's mounting debt crisis. Professor Burton provides candid insights into why he believes markets have further to fall, the inherent dangers of current tariff strategies, and the troubling decline in foreign investment in U.S. Treasury auctions. Tune in for an eye-opening discussion about the true costs of tariffs, the urgent need for increased American savings, and actionable alternatives to avoid economic turmoil.

Episode Breakdown:

Guest Bio: Professor Edwin T. Burton is an esteemed economist at the University of Virginia with decades of experience in financial markets, economic policy, and international trade. Known for his straightforward, pragmatic analysis, Dr. Burton has educated numerous influential figures in finance and remains an authoritative voice in economic forecasting and policy critique.

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Disclaimer: The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend consulting with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Investing and financial decisions carry risks; always conduct your own research.

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In this episode, Professor Edwin Burton joins Hunter Craig to discuss the recent implementation of tariffs by the U.S. government and their far-reaching effects on the economy. They delve into who truly bears the cost of tariffs, the unprecedented market reactions, and the potential long-term consequences for both domestic and international financial landscapes.

Episode Breakdown:

Relevant Links:

Professor Edwin T. Burton is a seasoned economist and former Wall Street executive with decades of experience analyzing economic trends. As a professor at the University of Virginia, he bridges academic knowledge and practical expertise to shed light on complex economic topics. His optimism and deep understanding of historical and modern economics make his insights invaluable to listeners.

Disclaimer:

The information provided in this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. Always consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Call to Action:

Stay informed on economic policies and their real-world implications. Subscribe to Rubber Meets the Road Economics and join the conversation on how these changes affect you.

As the U.S. deficit balloons toward $2 trillion annually and total national debt surpasses $36 trillion, the financial sustainability of government spending has never been more uncertain. Economist and UVA professor Edwin Burton joins host Hunter Craig to break down the underlying economic forces shaping America’s future.

Topics Covered:

✅ The impact of rising debt and deficits on the economy

✅ How healthcare spending is driving the debt crisis

✅ The unintended consequences of government-run healthcare

✅ Social Security’s flaws and potential reforms

✅ What policymakers could learn from private insurance models

Key Takeaways:

🔹 Government-run healthcare often leads to rationing and declining quality

🔹 Social Security disproportionately benefits wealthy retirees while failing lower-income earners

🔹 The absence of competitive pricing in healthcare fuels inefficiency and waste

🔹 Policy reforms could introduce more market-driven solutions to control costs

Financial Disclaimer:

The information provided in this podcast is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Please consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.

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