We brought in Rudy Husny — former senior advisor to Ed Fast at International Trade, two-time federal Conservative candidate in Outremont, 2020 Conservative leadership contender, and one of the most thoughtful federal Conservative voices on Quebec politics — to make sense of what has happened in the last 10 weeks.

What we got into:

• Why the CAQ is inching back. New premier Christine Fréchette is quietly stealing votes from the Liberals without really announcing anything. The "Fréchette as Mark Carney" framing is everywhere — Rudy explains why it's lazy.
• Charles Milliard's Bill 96 stumble. Three clarifications on the notwithstanding clause in one week. Rookie error or structural problem? (Probably both.)
• PSPP's doubling-down problem. He'd gain eight points by dropping the referendum promise. He won't. Even Lucien Bouchard has told him to walk it back. Rudy on why the rigidity actually matters.
• The Bill 21 wildcard. A Supreme Court decision is pending and could drop during the campaign. Why the outcome matters to every province, not just Quebec.
• Caucus management as stock exchange. Rudy's best line of the episode: when you're high in the polls, invest in your caucus — that's when you'll need the return later. A warning for Carney, and a post-mortem on Poilievre.
• The federal Conservative puzzle. Why Quebec keeps breaking the CPC's heart, and whether Dan Robertson's radical idea — stop running Conservative candidates in Quebec entirely — has any merit.

Also discussed: why Quebec staffers are quitting cabinet jobs now rather than six months from now (we've both been there), why "Premier of the West Island" isn't the same as Premier of Quebec, and how Fréchette showed up in Ottawa, demanded answers from Sean Fraser on the notwithstanding clause, and walked out looking like the strong woman in the room.

Three scenarios, minority government most likely, and the CAQ and the PCQ are both still very much wildcards.

Find Rudy on his French-language podcast https://www.youtube.com/@Danslescouloirs