This week Edward Johnson, Sibylline’s Insight Team Manager, leads a discussion with Liana Semchuk, Europe & Eurasia Lead Analyst, and Alex Lord scrutinising the massing of Russian military forces on the border with Ukraine and combat intensification in the Donbas. These activities have elevated concerns of the potential threat of invasion and a military clash between the two countries. The developments mark a notable deterioration in the region's security environment, but an outright Russian military invasion of Ukraine is currently deemed unlikely. Nevertheless, further provocations and an escalation in hostilities along the current line of contact in the Donbas is likely in the short term.