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″[Ryan] Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2025. Trump invokes Alien Enemies Act, Chinese invasion barges deployed in exercise.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur


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Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

  • Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order.

  • Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise.

  • The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50

Forecaster Estimates

Forecasters, on aggregate, think that a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine in the next six months is a coin toss (48%, ranging from 35% to 70%). Polymarket's forecast is higher, at 61%, for a ceasefire of any duration by July.

Forecasters also consider it a coin toss (aggregate of 49%; ranging from 28% to 70%) whether an agreement to expand [...]

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Outline:

(00:52) Forecaster Estimates

(01:54) Geopolitics

(01:57) United States

(04:27) Europe

(05:52) Middle East

(08:01) Africa

(08:40) Asia

(10:10) Biorisk

(10:24) Tech and AI

(13:25) Climate

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First published:

March 17th, 2025

Source:

https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/sentinels-global-risks-weekly-roundup?voice=ryan

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Sentinel MinutesBy Sentinel Team