Donald Trump went to the UN this week and gave what sounded like a MAGA speech to a room full of world leaders who’ve grown weary of him. His threats against Iran and Cuba and his bragging about Venezuela went over like a lead balloon.

Was it a failure? Only if you think the delegates were the audience. They weren’t. Dan Schnur explains who Trump was really talking to, and why, because like everything else this fall, it comes back to the midterms.

But the UN was just the undercard. The main event is Trump welcoming Xi Jinping to Washington, and Dan lays out why Xi arrives with the upper hand: he controls the rare earth minerals that power everything from our phones to our military. Xi has no time pressure; Trump has five weeks till an election. Expect a broad, nebulous trade deal Xi can easily afford to give. The real story is what he gets in return.

And finally, a reality check on Dan’s own reporting: after weeks of laying out the Democrats’ advantages, he makes the case for how Republicans could still hold Congress. It comes down to money and a few Democratic primaries that gave the base what it wanted over what swing voters prefer.

If you want a little more, check out our bonus episode about why Trump booted some media outlets from the White House. Hint: it’s not because he thinks he’ll win in court.

Also this week

* Dan’s take on why Marco Rubio and Gavin Newsom are pretending to say they won’t run for president.

* And Dan’s co-defense of California’s top-two primary system.

Why did Trump kick CNN, Politico, and MS NOW out of the White House? Dan Schnur reads it the way he reads everything this fall, through the midterms. It’s not about the coverage he loses; it’s about firing up a conservative base that shares his anger at the mainstream media. A quick look at the real motive behind the fight, and whether it’ll work.

This week on Sanity Check, Dan Schnur covers three stories worth watching with less than fifty days to the midterms: the sudden panic over AI and why a divided Washington won’t act on it, Canada’s Mark Carney striking back on tariffs and quietly betting that American isolationism outlasts Trump, and what the parties’ spending and travel reveal about who’s really on offense heading into November.

Plus, catch Dan’s bonus episode on Gavin Newsom’s curious promise not to run for president if Kamala Harris does…

And this week’s AllSides from Dan.

California Governor Gavin Newsom says he won't run for president if former Vice President Kamala Harris does, a striking claim from someone who's spent years, maybe decades, preparing to run. Dan Schnur on what Newsom is actually up to, and why he's almost certainly running no matter what.

Plus our first poll results are in: most of you don’t think Newsom will be the 2028 nominee at all.

In Episode 2 of Sanity Check, Dan Schnur looks at three stories through one lens: the populist backlash reshaping politics at home and abroad.

First, the stunning reversal on AI data centers. At the start of 2026, politicians in both parties sold them as jobs and growth. But voters, worried about electricity costs, water use, and the environment, have turned sharply against them, and the politicians are scrambling to catch up. Dan argues the anger runs deeper than the buildings: AI may be the first major technology in modern history that more people fear than welcome.

Second, a small election with global echoes. The far-right AfD’s breakthrough win in Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt signals a broader nativist, anti-immigration shift across the West, and it could sweep up France, Italy, and Britain in its wake. Dan explains the pattern that connects the movement, including here in the U.S.

Third, California Gov. Gavin Newsom goes south. The governor’s road trip through South Carolina, Alabama, and North Carolina was a clear presidential audition. Dan weighs Newsom’s real political talent against the obstacle his rivals don’t face: much of the country’s suspicion of California itself.

Weigh in: Do you think Gavin Newsom will be the 2028 Democratic nominee? Vote in this week’s poll on the Substack page, and if you say no, tell us who you think it’ll be. Vote here.

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One last thing before you go. I published a column this week I thought you might find interesting. It’s entitled “When Trump Calls for a Referendum—On Himself” and it concerns Trump’s unusual convention. It was published on AllSides. Just click the title if you want to read it, but first here’s a teaser:

“Dennis Rodman, the controversial former basketball star, episodic reveler, and occasional thwarted diplomat, was once asked if his off-the-court escapades might cause some of his fans to think less of him. Rodman’s response: ‘The only bad press is an obituary.’”

We normally send just one podcast a week, but this news was too interesting to hold. Donald Trump is doing something with no modern precedent: holding a national Republican convention during a midterm election year, a strange choice, perhaps, for a historically unpopular president. Dan Schnur on the question hanging over it all: will Trump use the spotlight to lift the candidates who need it, or make it all about himself?

In the first episode of Sanity Check, Dan Schnur lays out the story he thinks matters most this fall: the rise of the progressive left as the dominant force in Democratic politics, and how the midterms are shaping up as a contest between the DSA and MAGA wings. Both movements know how to fire up their bases, but neither have yet proven they can reach the center that decides elections. He explains why the out-of-power party is almost always the hungrier one — only three times in a century has the president’s party gained midterm seats — and why that gives Democrats an edge heading into the November elections.

Then, Dan turns to the war in Iran and why a foreign conflict could shape the midterms with an October surprise: the president’s need to change the headlines could lead us into Cuba.

He closes with California’s Proposition 40, the “billionaire tax,” and the surprising coalition of Democratic groups lining up against it. The outcome could either fuel or deflate the progressive movement’s push for wealth taxes nationwide.

As always: No screaming, no spin, just what matters to you.

Hi, I’m Dan Schnur, and I want to welcome you to Sanity Check, where we’re going to talk about politics each week, but in a much calmer and more reasonable way than I think we’ve all gotten used to. Like you, I know that politics is important. But like you, I know that politics has become increasingly exhausting.

I want to pay attention to it because I know I need to. But it can be so infuriating and so annoying. And so what I hope we can do here each week is have a conversation that isn’t as loud, that isn’t as argumentative, that is a little bit more reasonable and more rational and allows us to talk

about national and international and state and local affairs like we would in a conversation rather than the middle of a food fight. I’ve been in politics for a long time, for most of my adult life. I worked on political campaigns for many years. I worked on four campaigns for President of the United States,

three for Governor of California, and a bunch of others as well. But many years ago, I left the campaign trail for the classroom. And I’ve been teaching for a long time now at UC Berkeley in the University of Southern California and at Pepperdine University.

And I talk to my students about what politics is, What it has been and what it can be. And my biggest concern is that when they decide they want to learn more and they turn on the TV or they join a podcast or watch something on streaming, it’s so awkward and it’s so angry and it’s so nasty.

They’re just driven away from it. My students are just as public-minded and public-spirited as they’ve ever been. But every year I notice that fewer and fewer of them want to get involved in the political process simply because they find it to be such an unpleasant activity. And I know that it can be better.

I know that it should be better. And I know that we can make it better. And the way to improve politics is to begin by talking with some level of mutual respect, remembering that someone who disagrees with us isn’t evil or stupid. They’re not our enemy, they’re our opponent.

And we can find ways to talk about our common challenges, even if we come to different ideas about how to solve those challenges. So what we’re going to do here on Sanity Check each week is once a week you’ll get from me an email with a written newsletter that addresses a few topics that I’ll encourage you to keep an eye on as the news progresses over the upcoming week.

And then once a week we’ll send out a podcast. 10 or 12 minutes, nothing too exhaustive. Just something to listen to when you’re getting ready in the morning, you’re driving to work. And hopefully with just these periodic check-ins, maybe a little bit more if there’s breaking news, we can have a calmer conversation. We can have a more productive conversation. And we can talk about politics and take the first steps toward fixing a broken system of politics in a way that’s long overdue. So once again, let me welcome you to Sanity Check.

Or we’re going to talk about politics. It’s a calmer.