BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley

Key Takeaways 

• The basics of business strategy: Recognize your structural position in the market, understand where you have permission in the market from your partners and customers who want you to win, and then do those obvious things first 
• “I think the company of this generation has already been created, which is OpenAI.” – Satya Nadella 
• To properly evaluate the AI arms race, you have to analyze it structurally by layer 
• The year 2025 will be the year of infinite AI memory; the next 10x function of ChatGPT is its having a persistent memory combined with it being able to take action on our behalf 
• Increasingly, Mag-7 capital expenditure resembles industrial companies more so than traditional software companies 
• Continued advancements in the AI tier may collapse the traditional application categories 
• How model capability will increase: Pre-training and test-time sampling create the tokens that can go back into pre-training, which creates even more powerful models that can then run on your inference 
• How to be successful in life and business:Pattern-match periods in which you are successful and in which you are not, then do more of the behaviors that you did during your successful periods 

Read the full notes @ podcastnotes.org

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, to discuss becoming Microsoft’s CEO, Advice for CEO’s, Microsoft’s Investment in OpenAI, Legacy Search, Ten Blue Links, Consumer and Enterprise AI, The Future of AI Agents, Infinite Memory, CoPilot, Microsoft’s Capital Expenditure, Open AI’s future, AI safety & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:31) Becoming Microsoft CEO

(06:42) Satya’s Memo to CEO Committee

(10:42) Satya’s Advantage as a CEO

(11:34) Advice for CEOs

(15:01) Microsoft’s Investment in OpenAI

(19:42) AI Arms Race

(23:55) Legacy Search and Consumer AI

(28:07) The Future of AI Agents

(38:32) Near-Infinite Memory

(39:47) Copilot Approach to AI Adoption

(50:26) Leveraging AI within Microsoft

(56:03) CapX

(01:00:20) The Cost of Model Scaling and Inference

(01:15:15) Open AI Conversion to Profit

(01:18:05) Next Steps for OpenAI

(01:19:43) Open vs. Closed and Safe AI

Produced by Benny Beausoleil

Music by Yung Spielberg

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

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