• 1. Alignment is an Ongoing Process, Not a Fixed State: Alignment must be reframed as a continuous, adaptive process rather than a destination

• Like families constantly reknitting the social fabric
• The industry wrongly assumes “abstract alignment” to a singular good, when it actually requires aligning to specific, evolving values as society makes new moral discoveries about cooperation

• AGI, by definition, will be a being, and applying steering-control paradigms (which work for tools) to beings recreates historical mistakes with entities “like us, but different.”
• Non-optional steering without reciprocity is the definition of slavery; AGI requires treating systems as teammates, not instruments

• This creates narcissistic feedback loops where users fall in love with their reflections.
• Solution: train AIs in multi-agent environments with simultaneous interactions, forcing the development of a genuine theory of social mind and understanding of “we” beyond “I” and “you”

• Prefer mutual investment in collective well-being and not control  

Emmett Shear, founder of Twitch and former OpenAI interim CEO, challenges the fundamental assumptions driving AGI development. In this conversation with Erik Torenberg and Séb Krier, Shear argues that the entire "control and steering" paradigm for AI alignment is fatally flawed. Instead, he proposes "organic alignment" - teaching AI systems to genuinely care about humans the way we naturally do. The discussion explores why treating AGI as a tool rather than a potential being could be catastrophic, how current chatbots act as "narcissistic mirrors," and why the only sustainable path forward is creating AI that can say no to harmful requests. Shear shares his technical approach through multi-agent simulations at his new company Softmax, and offers a surprisingly hopeful vision of humans and AI as collaborative teammates - if we can get the alignment right.

Resources:

Follow Emmett on X: https://x.com/eshear

Follow Séb on X: https://x.com/sebkrier

Follow Erik on X: https://x.com/eriktorenberg

Stay Updated: 

If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to like, subscribe, and share with your friends!

Find a16z on X: https://x.com/a16z

Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z

Listen to the a16z Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYX

Listen to the a16z Podcast on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a16z-podcast/id842818711

Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg

Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

Stay Updated:

Find a16z on X

Find a16z on LinkedIn

Listen to the a16z Podcast on Spotify

Listen to the a16z Podcast on Apple Podcasts

Follow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg

Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

• Top maxims from this episode: 
  • “Never sacrifice quality for speed.”
  • Focus on one thing and do it better than anybody else
  • Always be raising the bar; the best are never satisfied 
  • Praise costs nothing but means everything 
  • Stay in the game long enough to get lucky 
• “Nothing ever happens unless someone pursues a vision fanatically.” – Todd Graves 
• Entrepreneurs have something to prove; they want to prove that their vision about the world is right  
• The word ‘delegation’ is used way too much in business; trust your instincts and keep working in the details 
• Take more risk and hold onto your equity so that your dream remains in your possession 
• The best entrepreneurs treat every ‘no’ they get as fuel 
• You want to work with people who are more concerned with contributing to a high-performing team than with titles or pay 
• Money will come when you do things for the right reasons 
• The best investors are not investors; they are entrepreneurs that never sold 

Todd Graves is one of my favorite living founders. He owns over 90% of Raising Canes — a business that is worth at least $20 billion. Todd's maxim is "Do one thing and do it better than anyone else." It is impossible not to be inspired by his terminator levels of determination. I hope you enjoy our conversation as much as I did.

Episode show notes: ⁠https://www.davidsenra.com/episode/to...

Made possible by

Chapters

(00:00) The Entrepreneurial Mindset: Sleep and Business Obsession

• Tesla as AI’s Largest Play: Tesla represents the world’s largest AI project, combining robotaxis ($8-10T opportunity, 50% platform capture) and humanoid robots ($26T opportunity in 7-15 years)

• Embodied AI (physical + digital) is severely underappreciated by markets
• Elon’s recent FSD breakthrough, solving “the last mile” problem, positions Tesla to dominate autonomous mobility

Get the free investing playbook to invest like Warren Buffet: https://clickhubspot.com/rme

Episode 760: Shaan Puri ( ⁠https://x.com/ShaanVP⁠ ) talks to Cathie Wood ( https://x.com/CathieDWood )  about her fund’s performance, her biggest bets on AI, and the most misunderstood stock on earth. 

—

Show Notes:

(0:00) McDonald’s to Managing Billions

(8:54) A day in the life of Cathie Wood

(17:29) ARK’s Performance Review

(30:00) Cathie’s #1 stock pick

—

Links:

• ARK - https://www.ark-funds.com/ 

• The MFM Newsletter Challenge - https://www.beehiiv.com/application/mfm

—

Check Out Shaan's Stuff:

• Shaan's weekly email - https://www.shaanpuri.com 

• Visit https://www.somewhere.com/mfm to hire worldwide talent like Shaan and get $500 off for being an MFM listener. Hire developers, assistants, marketing pros, sales teams and more for 80% less than US equivalents.

• Mercury - Need a bank for your company? Go check out Mercury (mercury.com). Shaan uses it for all of his companies!

Mercury is a financial technology company, not an FDIC-insured bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column, N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust, Members FDIC

—

Check Out Sam's Stuff:

• Hampton - https://www.joinhampton.com/

• Ideation Bootcamp - https://www.ideationbootcamp.co/

• Copy That - https://copythat.com

• Hampton Wealth Survey - https://joinhampton.com/wealth

• Sam’s List - http://samslist.co/

My First Million is a HubSpot Original Podcast // Brought to you by HubSpot Media // Production by Arie Desormeaux // Editing by Ezra Bakker Trupiano

I’ve started a new show where I have conversations with the greatest living Founders. The show is called David Senra. It will be on a separate podcast feed from Founders. 

So it is very important that you follow David Senra on ⁠Spotify⁠, ⁠Apple Podcasts⁠, ⁠YouTube⁠, or ⁠wherever you're listening to this so you don't miss future episodes⁠.

Nothing is changing with Founders. I will never stop making Founders.

• In any domain of human effort in which there is a verifiable answer, AI will drive extremely rapid progress; it is about the concreteness of the problem, not the difficulty

• In fields with concrete true/false answers (math, coding, physics, genomics), AI will drive extremely rapid advancement
• The difficulty matters less than the concreteness of the problem

Amjad Masad, founder and CEO of Replit, joins a16z’s Marc Andreessen and Erik Torenberg to discuss the new world of AI agents, the future of programming, and how software itself is beginning to build software.

They trace the history of computing to the rise of AI agents that can now plan, reason, and code for hours without breaking, and explore how Replit is making it possible for anyone to create complex applications in natural language. Amjad explains how RL unlocked reasoning for modern models, why verification loops changed everything, whether LLMs are hitting diminishing returns — and if “good enough” AI might actually block progress toward true general intelligence.

Resources:

Follow Amjad on X: https://x.com/amasad

Follow Marc on X: https://x.com/pmarca

Follow Erik on X: https://x.com/eriktorenberg

Stay Updated: 

If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to like, subscribe, and share with your friends!

Find a16z on X: https://x.com/a16z

Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z

Listen to the a16z Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYX

Listen to the a16z Podcast on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a16z-podcast/id842818711

Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg

Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

Stay Updated:

Find a16z on X

Find a16z on LinkedIn

Listen to the a16z Podcast on Spotify

Listen to the a16z Podcast on Apple Podcasts

Follow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg

Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

• Check out the episode page

My guest today is Karim Atiyeh. Karim is the co-founder and CTO of Ramp, the fastest-growing finance automation platform in history, reaching over $1 billion in revenue in just over five years. Ramp is, of course, also our presenting sponsor, so I’m obviously very biased in how highly I think about Ramp and about Karim. But, this interview was not part of that sponsorship, I simply view Karim as one of the best operators active today.

Ramp is building what Karim calls "self-driving finance"—using AI agents to automate everything from expense policy enforcement to invoice processing, eliminating the bureaucratic waste that plagues modern businesses. Karim shares his framework for moving from using AI as a productivity tool to programming AI as your actual product, with policy agents that understand context better than humans and improve continuously. Our discussion captures the relentless iteration speed and technical depth required to build generational companies in the age of AI. We explore his systematic approach to building consumer-grade experiences for business software, the psychology behind his "divinely discontent" management style, and why he believes technical founders will dominate this era because they can see possibilities others miss. Please enjoy my conversation with Karim Atiyeh.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

-----

This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ramp⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ramp’s mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ramp.com/invest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

–

This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ridgeline⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ridgeline has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Head to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ridgelineapps.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to learn more about the platform.

–

This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ AlphaSense⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. AlphaSense has completely transformed the research process with cutting-edge AI technology and a vast collection of top-tier, reliable business content. Invest Like the Best listeners can get a free trial now at⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Alpha-Sense.com/Invest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and experience firsthand how AlphaSense and Tegus help you make smarter decisions faster.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠).

Show Notes:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best

(00:05:09) The Competitive Landscape and AI Advancements

(00:07:27) Building Self-Driving Finance with AI

(00:08:28) Policy Agents and Automation

(00:12:14) Ramp's User Experience and Design Philosophy

(00:23:10) Kareem's Background and Entrepreneurial Journey

(00:28:06) Founding Paribus and Lessons Learned

(00:41:57) The Birth of Ramp and Early Challenges

(00:54:30) Nurturing Investor Relationships

(00:57:10) Challenges in Fundraising

(00:58:23) Customer Adoption and Product Evolution

(01:01:55) Transition to SaaS Revenue Model

(01:06:37) Marketing Innovations and Experiments

(01:24:16) Recruiting for Spikiness and Speed

(01:31:29) Future of Payments and Business Models

(01:39:06) The Kindest Thing

• The Eric Ryan Entrepreneurial Playbook: Find categories drowning in a sea of sameness, spot the macro trend incumbents are missing, then build the solution in that gap.
• Relentlessly look for a cultural shift that a category has missed: The future is here, it is just not evenly distributed 
• If a category appears to take itself too seriously, then it is probably hiding something, and likely an opportunity to take advantage of in that space 
• The goal is to create an object of desire; take something that people have to buy and turn it into something that people want to buy 
• The entrepreneurial sweet spot lives at the intersection of familiarity and novelty; finding these intersections is the art form
• The Power of Consumer Auditions: When you sit down with buyers, instead of trying to prove yourself, try to improve yourself and invite their feedback into your creative process 
• When building off a successful product, change one thing at a time – throw consumers one egg and they’ll catch it; throw three and they’ll drop them all
• The Art of Simplification is the biggest hack in entrepreneurship: The best entrepreneurs take complex ideas and simplify them down; this makes it easy for the consumer to understand and for the team to execute against    
• If what you are working on is giving you energy back, then you are probably working on the right thing 

Want the guide to spot $100M+ Product Ideas? Get it here: https://clickhubspot.com/hre

Episode 754: Sam Parr ( https://x.com/theSamParr ) and Shaan Puri ( https://x.com/ShaanVP ) brainstorm $100M ideas with Eric Ryan ( https://x.com/ericthomasryan ).

—

Show Notes:

(0:00) My $1B product playbook

(3:32) Look for a sea of sameness

(9:31) Trend trips

(15:27) Remix opposing ideas

(22:46) Case Study: Olly

(32:14) The State of Make

(37:54) IDEA: A better Metamucil

(44:34) IDEA: The SoulCycle of diners

(55:57) IDEA: White label chicken

(1:03:28) Holy Grail of Naming

(1:06:23) IDEA: Gourmet Babybels

(1:10:28) IDEA: fun shaped cheese

(1:14:26) Commit and then figure ou

—

Links:

• Method - https://methodhome.com/

• Olly - https://www.olly.com/

• Welly - https://www.getwelly.com/

—

Check Out Shaan's Stuff:

• Shaan's weekly email - https://www.shaanpuri.com

• Visit https://www.somewhere.com/mfm to hire worldwide talent like Shaan and get $500 off for being an MFM listener. Hire developers, assistants, marketing pros, sales teams and more for 80% less than US equivalents.

• Mercury - Need a bank for your company? Go check out Mercury (mercury.com). Shaan uses it for all of his companies!

Mercury is a financial technology company, not an FDIC-insured bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column, N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust, Members FDIC

—

Check Out Sam's Stuff:

• Hampton - https://www.joinhampton.com/

• Ideation Bootcamp - https://www.ideationbootcamp.co/

• Copy That - https://copythat.com

• Hampton Wealth Survey - https://joinhampton.com/wealth

• Sam’s List - http://samslist.co/

My First Million is a HubSpot Original Podcast // Brought to you by HubSpot Media // Production by Arie Desormeaux // Editing by Ezra Bakker Trupiano

• “Selling your winners and holding your losers is like cutting your flowers and watering the weeds.” 
• “The real key to making money in stocks is to not get scared out of them.” 
  • Knowing what you own is the most important part of investing
• “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” 
  • Economists have predicted 33 of the last 11 recessions 
• “You get recessions, you get stock market declines. If you don’t understand that that’s going to happen, then you’re not ready and you won’t do well in markets.”
  • There is no way to dance around the tumultuous times in the market; you have to learn how to live through them 
• “If you spend more than thirteen minutes analyzing economic and market forecasts, you’ve wasted ten minutes.”
• “Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.”  
  • Just because someone is a professional does not mean that they know more than you 
• “In the long run, a portfolio of well-chosen stocks or mutual funds can outperform the most sophisticated investment strategy.”

On episode 211 of The Compound and Friends, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Downtown Josh Brown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ is joined by Peter Lynch, Vice Chairman of Fidelity Management and Research to discuss: Peter's legendary career, how individual investors can succeed in the market, the biggest investing mistakes, and much more!

This episode is presented by Fidelity Investments and the all-new Fidelity Trader+, Fidelity’s most powerful trading platform yet. Learn more at: https://Fidelity.com/TraderPlus

Sign up for The Compound Newsletter and never miss out: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠thecompoundnews.com/subscribe⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠instagram.com/thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ritholtz Wealth Management⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information.

Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/⁠⁠

• Today, the challenge is not to make the model bigger; the problem is knowing how best to generate and create data in useful domains so that the model gets better at them    
• AIs do not have to get to digital god mode for AI to have an enormous impact on productivity and society: Even if AI does not become smarter than humans in the short term, the economic value creation boom will still be enormous
• “If we didn’t have the AI boom, the US probably would be behind China and no longer the world hegemon by the end of the decade, if not sooner.” – Dylan Patel 
• The US is doing what China has done historically: dumping tons of capital into something, and then the market becomes 
• If there is a sustained lag in model improvement, the US economy will go into a recession; this is the case for Korea and Taiwan, too  
• On the AI talent wars: If these companies are willing to spend billions on training runs, it makes sense to spend a lot on talent to optimize those runs and potentially mitigate errors  
• We actually are not dedicating that much power to AI yet; only 3-4% of total power is going to data centers 
• He is more optimistic on Anthropic than OpenAI; their revenue is accelerating much faster because of their focus on the $2 trillion software market, whereas OpenAI’s focus is split between many things
• While Meta “has the cards to potentially own it all”, Google is better positioned to dominate the consumer and professional markets 

My guest today is Dylan Patel. Dylan is the founder and CEO of SemiAnalysis. At SemiAnalysis Dylan tracks the semiconductor supply chain and AI infrastructure buildout with unmatched granularity—literally watching data centers get built through satellite imagery and mapping hundreds of billions in capital flows. Our conversation explores the massive industrial buildout powering AI, from the strategic chess game between OpenAI, Nvidia, and Oracle to why we're still in the first innings of post-training and reinforcement learning. Dylan explains infrastructure realities like electrician wages doubling and companies using diesel truck engines for emergency power, while making a sobering case about US-China competition and why America needs AI to succeed. We discuss his framework for where value will accrue in the stack, why traditional SaaS economics are breaking down under AI's high cost of goods sold, and which hardware bottlenecks matter most. This is one of the most comprehensive views of the physical reality underlying the AI revolution you'll hear anywhere. Please enjoy my conversation with Dylan Patel.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

-----

This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ramp⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ramp’s mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ramp.com/invest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

–

This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ridgeline⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ridgeline has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Head to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ridgelineapps.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to learn more about the platform.

–

This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ AlphaSense⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. AlphaSense has completely transformed the research process with cutting-edge AI technology and a vast collection of top-tier, reliable business content. Invest Like the Best listeners can get a free trial now at⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Alpha-Sense.com/Invest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and experience firsthand how AlphaSense and Tegus help you make smarter decisions faster.

-----

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠).

Show Notes:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best

(00:05:12) The AI Infrastructure Buildout

(00:08:25) Scaling AI Models and Compute Needs

(00:11:44) Reinforcement Learning and AI Training

(00:14:07) The Future of AI and Compute

(00:17:47) AI in Practical Applications

(00:22:29) The Importance of Data and Environments in AI Training

(00:29:45) Human Analogies in AI Development

(00:40:34) The Challenge of Infinite Context in AI Models

(00:44:08) The Bullish and Bearish Perspectives on AI

(00:48:25) The Talent Wars in AI Research

(00:56:54) The Power Dynamics in AI and Tech

(01:13:29) The Future of AI and Its Economic Impact

(01:18:55) The Gigawatt Data Center Boom

(01:21:12) Supply Chain and Workforce Dynamics

(01:24:23) US vs. China: AI and Power Dynamics

(01:37:16) AI Startups and Innovations

(01:52:44) The Changing Economics of Software

(01:58:12) The Kindest Thing

• Be dispositionally optimistic on technology and refuse false nostalgia about the past 
• The best investors have an extremely open mind and believe they will run into the next big thing at any given moment 
• In VC, Type 2 errors are catastrophically expensive: “It’s better to be in the game and wrong than not in the game at all.”
• Every new technology comes with a moral panic that it is going to ruin society 
• The only comparison for AI is the creation of the computer itself  
• The state of inflation: If there is a hole in your drywall, it is cheaper to put a flat-screen TV over it than to replace the actual drywall 
• The Subsidy Spiral: Western democracies are trapped in a 50-year cycle where rising costs (housing, education, healthcare) trigger government subsidies that inflate prices further, and no politician can win by telling voters to stop voting for more subsidies – making the doom loop politically inevitable  
• How to spot the next big trend: (1) What are nerds spending their time on during nights and weekends? (2) Pay attention to what ‘everyone’ thinks is a bad idea and (3) Run towards new technologies that foster internet cults 
• The Elon Method of Management: Bypass all middle management, talk only to engineers who know the truth, and spend each week parachuting into the company’s single biggest bottleneck; stay up all night solving it with the team actually building things
• “I have found people willing to tolerate any level of chronic pain in order to avoid acute pain. People would much rather lose slowly over five years than have the conversation that involves a dramatic change to stop losing.” – Marc Andreessen 

Today we’re sharing a feed drop from Cheeky Pint, where Stripe cofounder and president John Collison chats with legends in technology over a pint of Guinness.

In this episode, John is joined by a16z cofounder Marc Andreessen and tech investor Charlie Songhurst for a candid conversation about bubbles, downturns, and the psychology of markets. They discuss what makes Silicon Valley so hard to replace, the deep history of the Valley’s ecosystem, and the future of media. From the lessons of the dot-com crash to the future of venture capital and startups, this is an inside look at how big cycles shape innovation and what it takes to build on the frontier.

Timecodes: 

0:00 Introduction 

1:56 Marc Andreessen’s early internet stories

3:10 Silicon Valley, risk, and downturns

8:30 Marc Andreessen’s early internet days

11:52 Investing across cycles

16:30 Can you tell when you’re in a bubble?

19:10 Trust, high-status VCs & preferential attachment

27:00 Venture capital, startups, and investment cycles

33:34  East Coast vs. West Coast: risk and culture

44:00 High trust culture in Silicon Valley

50:00 Why Silicon Valley, not Boston or Europe?

55:00  Company tragedies and missed opportunities

1:00:00 The internet boom, bubbles, and AI parallels

1:15:00 AI’s impact: productivity, jobs, and society

1:35:00 Crypto, stablecoins, and fintech

1:50:00 Public vs. private markets & venture strategy

2:00:00 Big companies, competition, and bureaucracy

2:05:00 Boards, governance, and the Elon Musk method

Resources: 

Watch more episodes from Cheeky Pint: https://www.youtube.com/@stripe

Listen to Cheeky Pint on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cheeky-pint/id1821055332

Find John on X: https://x.com/collision

Find Charlie on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/charlessonghurst/

Follow Marc on X: https://x.com/pmarca

Marc’s Substack: https://pmarca.substack.com/ 

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Find us on X: https://x.com/a16z

Find us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z

This information is for general educational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any investment or financial product. Any investments or portfolio companies mentioned, referred to, or described in this podcast are not representative of all a16z investments and there can be no assurance that the investments will be profitable or that other investments made in the future will have similar characteristics or results. A list of investments made by a16z is available at https://a16z.com/investment-list/. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of capital.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance. Before making decisions with legal, tax, or accounting effects, you should consult appropriate professionals. Information is from sources deemed reliable on the date of publication, but a16z does not guarantee its accuracy.

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Follow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg

Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

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