Podcast Notes Playlist: Startup

• “Selling your winners and holding your losers is like cutting your flowers and watering the weeds.” 
• “The real key to making money in stocks is to not get scared out of them.” 
  • Knowing what you own is the most important part of investing
• “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” 
  • Economists have predicted 33 of the last 11 recessions 
• “You get recessions, you get stock market declines. If you don’t understand that that’s going to happen, then you’re not ready and you won’t do well in markets.”
  • There is no way to dance around the tumultuous times in the market; you have to learn how to live through them 
• “If you spend more than thirteen minutes analyzing economic and market forecasts, you’ve wasted ten minutes.”
• “Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.”  
  • Just because someone is a professional does not mean that they know more than you 
• “In the long run, a portfolio of well-chosen stocks or mutual funds can outperform the most sophisticated investment strategy.”

On episode 211 of The Compound and Friends, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Downtown Josh Brown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ is joined by Peter Lynch, Vice Chairman of Fidelity Management and Research to discuss: Peter's legendary career, how individual investors can succeed in the market, the biggest investing mistakes, and much more!

This episode is presented by Fidelity Investments and the all-new Fidelity Trader+, Fidelity’s most powerful trading platform yet. Learn more at: https://Fidelity.com/TraderPlus

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Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ritholtz Wealth Management⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information.

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• Today, the challenge is not to make the model bigger; the problem is knowing how best to generate and create data in useful domains so that the model gets better at them    
• AIs do not have to get to digital god mode for AI to have an enormous impact on productivity and society: Even if AI does not become smarter than humans in the short term, the economic value creation boom will still be enormous
• “If we didn’t have the AI boom, the US probably would be behind China and no longer the world hegemon by the end of the decade, if not sooner.” – Dylan Patel 
• The US is doing what China has done historically: dumping tons of capital into something, and then the market becomes 
• If there is a sustained lag in model improvement, the US economy will go into a recession; this is the case for Korea and Taiwan, too  
• On the AI talent wars: If these companies are willing to spend billions on training runs, it makes sense to spend a lot on talent to optimize those runs and potentially mitigate errors  
• We actually are not dedicating that much power to AI yet; only 3-4% of total power is going to data centers 
• He is more optimistic on Anthropic than OpenAI; their revenue is accelerating much faster because of their focus on the $2 trillion software market, whereas OpenAI’s focus is split between many things
• While Meta “has the cards to potentially own it all”, Google is better positioned to dominate the consumer and professional markets 

My guest today is Dylan Patel. Dylan is the founder and CEO of SemiAnalysis. At SemiAnalysis Dylan tracks the semiconductor supply chain and AI infrastructure buildout with unmatched granularity—literally watching data centers get built through satellite imagery and mapping hundreds of billions in capital flows. Our conversation explores the massive industrial buildout powering AI, from the strategic chess game between OpenAI, Nvidia, and Oracle to why we're still in the first innings of post-training and reinforcement learning. Dylan explains infrastructure realities like electrician wages doubling and companies using diesel truck engines for emergency power, while making a sobering case about US-China competition and why America needs AI to succeed. We discuss his framework for where value will accrue in the stack, why traditional SaaS economics are breaking down under AI's high cost of goods sold, and which hardware bottlenecks matter most. This is one of the most comprehensive views of the physical reality underlying the AI revolution you'll hear anywhere. Please enjoy my conversation with Dylan Patel.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ramp⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ramp’s mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ramp.com/invest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

–

This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ridgeline⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ridgeline has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Head to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ridgelineapps.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to learn more about the platform.

–

This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ AlphaSense⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. AlphaSense has completely transformed the research process with cutting-edge AI technology and a vast collection of top-tier, reliable business content. Invest Like the Best listeners can get a free trial now at⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Alpha-Sense.com/Invest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and experience firsthand how AlphaSense and Tegus help you make smarter decisions faster.

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠).

Show Notes:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best

(00:05:12) The AI Infrastructure Buildout

(00:08:25) Scaling AI Models and Compute Needs

(00:11:44) Reinforcement Learning and AI Training

(00:14:07) The Future of AI and Compute

(00:17:47) AI in Practical Applications

(00:22:29) The Importance of Data and Environments in AI Training

(00:29:45) Human Analogies in AI Development

(00:40:34) The Challenge of Infinite Context in AI Models

(00:44:08) The Bullish and Bearish Perspectives on AI

(00:48:25) The Talent Wars in AI Research

(00:56:54) The Power Dynamics in AI and Tech

(01:13:29) The Future of AI and Its Economic Impact

(01:18:55) The Gigawatt Data Center Boom

(01:21:12) Supply Chain and Workforce Dynamics

(01:24:23) US vs. China: AI and Power Dynamics

(01:37:16) AI Startups and Innovations

(01:52:44) The Changing Economics of Software

(01:58:12) The Kindest Thing

• Be dispositionally optimistic on technology and refuse false nostalgia about the past 
• The best investors have an extremely open mind and believe they will run into the next big thing at any given moment 
• In VC, Type 2 errors are catastrophically expensive: “It’s better to be in the game and wrong than not in the game at all.”
• Every new technology comes with a moral panic that it is going to ruin society 
• The only comparison for AI is the creation of the computer itself  
• The state of inflation: If there is a hole in your drywall, it is cheaper to put a flat-screen TV over it than to replace the actual drywall 
• The Subsidy Spiral: Western democracies are trapped in a 50-year cycle where rising costs (housing, education, healthcare) trigger government subsidies that inflate prices further, and no politician can win by telling voters to stop voting for more subsidies – making the doom loop politically inevitable  
• How to spot the next big trend: (1) What are nerds spending their time on during nights and weekends? (2) Pay attention to what ‘everyone’ thinks is a bad idea and (3) Run towards new technologies that foster internet cults 
• The Elon Method of Management: Bypass all middle management, talk only to engineers who know the truth, and spend each week parachuting into the company’s single biggest bottleneck; stay up all night solving it with the team actually building things
• “I have found people willing to tolerate any level of chronic pain in order to avoid acute pain. People would much rather lose slowly over five years than have the conversation that involves a dramatic change to stop losing.” – Marc Andreessen 

Today we’re sharing a feed drop from Cheeky Pint, where Stripe cofounder and president John Collison chats with legends in technology over a pint of Guinness.

In this episode, John is joined by a16z cofounder Marc Andreessen and tech investor Charlie Songhurst for a candid conversation about bubbles, downturns, and the psychology of markets. They discuss what makes Silicon Valley so hard to replace, the deep history of the Valley’s ecosystem, and the future of media. From the lessons of the dot-com crash to the future of venture capital and startups, this is an inside look at how big cycles shape innovation and what it takes to build on the frontier.

Timecodes: 

0:00 Introduction 

1:56 Marc Andreessen’s early internet stories

3:10 Silicon Valley, risk, and downturns

8:30 Marc Andreessen’s early internet days

11:52 Investing across cycles

16:30 Can you tell when you’re in a bubble?

19:10 Trust, high-status VCs & preferential attachment

27:00 Venture capital, startups, and investment cycles

33:34  East Coast vs. West Coast: risk and culture

44:00 High trust culture in Silicon Valley

50:00 Why Silicon Valley, not Boston or Europe?

55:00  Company tragedies and missed opportunities

1:00:00 The internet boom, bubbles, and AI parallels

1:15:00 AI’s impact: productivity, jobs, and society

1:35:00 Crypto, stablecoins, and fintech

1:50:00 Public vs. private markets & venture strategy

2:00:00 Big companies, competition, and bureaucracy

2:05:00 Boards, governance, and the Elon Musk method

Resources: 

Watch more episodes from Cheeky Pint: https://www.youtube.com/@stripe

Listen to Cheeky Pint on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cheeky-pint/id1821055332

Find John on X: https://x.com/collision

Find Charlie on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/charlessonghurst/

Follow Marc on X: https://x.com/pmarca

Marc’s Substack: https://pmarca.substack.com/ 

Stay Updated: 

Find us on X: https://x.com/a16z

Find us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z

This information is for general educational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any investment or financial product. Any investments or portfolio companies mentioned, referred to, or described in this podcast are not representative of all a16z investments and there can be no assurance that the investments will be profitable or that other investments made in the future will have similar characteristics or results. A list of investments made by a16z is available at https://a16z.com/investment-list/. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of capital.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance. Before making decisions with legal, tax, or accounting effects, you should consult appropriate professionals. Information is from sources deemed reliable on the date of publication, but a16z does not guarantee its accuracy.

Stay Updated:

Find a16z on X

Find a16z on LinkedIn

Listen to the a16z Show on Spotify

Listen to the a16z Show on Apple Podcasts

Follow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg

Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

• Ignorance can be a superpower; sometimes knowing too much kills action 
• As an entrepreneur, the moment that you think you have it figured out, that is when your business starts to die 
• The best insights often come not from getting what you want, but from watching closely when you don’t
• Never put yourself in a position to need the kindness of strangers 
• The day you stop fearing competition is the day that competition stops fearing you 
• Know who the decision-maker is; if you are in a big meeting and someone is sitting off in the corner in a suit, that’s probably the person you have to convince 
• The most profitable decision on a spreadsheet can be the worst decision for a business: when the data point and anecdote differ, the anecdote is often right  
• Every business that you see is the result of someone’s irrational dedication 
• The outliers know every detail of their company; they do not make decisions nor operate from the spreadsheet  
• Become someone people want to root for: Understand what you must do and how you approach life so that other people want you to succeed; having people rooting for your success is a powerful tailwind 
• Most people explain away failure; the best dissect it like surgeons – the precision of your diagnosis proves the depth of your understanding 
• What you get out of any effort is directly proportional to the effort that you put into it 

Ed Stack built Dick’s Sporting Goods from a struggling family store into an empire of more than 800 stores and billions in sales.

Along the way he nearly lost everything. Multiple times. This episode is the story of what he did, how he did it, and the lessons you can learn.

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Some of the things you'll learn in this episode:

Never rely on the kindness of strangers.

Your name is your biggest asset.

The person who talks the least is usually the decision maker.

Sometimes the most profitable decision on a spreadsheet is the worst decision for a business.

Good businesses don’t need debt and bad ones can’t handle it.

When the data and the anecdotes differ, you’re measuring the wrong thing.

Trust isn’t earned in the easy times; it’s earned in the fire.

People are rarely buying just your product.

Give the underdog a chance. They want it more.

Not knowing what you’re doing can be an asset.

All money comes with strings.

Your competition always has something to teach you.

Always bet on yourself.

Learn from mistakes, but don’t over-learn them.

“The moment a business stops evolving, the moment its leaders sit back and think, ‘Everything’s good,’ that’s when it starts to fail.”

Problems are opportunities to add value.

Play the game to win.

Become someone people want to help.

Investment bankers are not your friends.

Manically focus on the numbers.

The recipe is boldness mixed with caution.

What you get out of anything is directly proportional to what you put in.

The spreadsheet is not the customer.

Arguing teaches you how to think.

If you go into a deal with a win-win mindset, it almost always works out.

Clever excuses don’t make anything better.

Every business is someone’s irrational dedication.

The most important element of success is perseverance.

Always let people keep their dignity.

The cost of making others happy is losing yourself.

Do right for the company. Do right for society. You can’t prosper unless the community around you prospers.

Believing in someone before they believe in themselves changes everything.

Learn more at: https://fs.blog/knowledge-project-podcast/outliers-ed-stack/

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Newsletter: The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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X @ShaneAParrish

Insta ⁠@farnamstreet⁠

LinkedIn ⁠Shane Parrish

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This episode is for informational purposes only.

• We should not think of AI as a destination, but as an escalation of intelligence that we become more aware of 
• Main lesson learned from government side quest: “If AI and robots don’t solve our national debt, we’re toast.”
• “I think it is accurate to say that, if successful, Optimus will be the biggest product ever.” – Elon 
• We need the revival of a coherent philosophy that people can get excited about; fostering a curiosity about the nature of the universe will achieve this
• “I think that we might have AI smarter than any single human at anything as soon as next year. And in 2030, AI will probably be smarter than the sum of all humans.” – Elon 
• We need an increase in the scope and scale of consciousness to know what is truly going on in our universe; this will lead to a better understanding of who we are and allow us to create a better future
• “Unless people have a sense of optimism and purpose about the future, suicide might be just what happens. Having a child is an act of optimism about the future.” – Elon Musk 
• Getting to Mars is way easier than making it self-sustainable for human life; for example, we not only need to create a chip fab on Mars, but we can make one there   

(0:00) Introducing Elon Musk, and reflecting on his DOGE experience

(2:47) Optimus: Progress and potential, the "hands problem"

(12:20) Tesla: AI5 chips, impact on FSD

(16:50) SpaceX: Vision for Starlink-enabled smartphones, $17B spectrum deal, Starship update

(26:16) xAI: Next-gen Grok models, Colossus 2, scaling laws, "Grokipedia"

(31:29) Evolving alongside AI, implosion of the West, the religion vacuum

(37:36) Understanding the universe, going to the Moon, what happens on Mars?

Thanks to our partners for making this happen!

Solana - Solana is the high performance network powering internet capital markets, payments, and crypto applications. Connect with investors, crypto founders, and entrepreneurs at Solana's global flagship event during Abu Dhabi Finance Week & F1: solana.com/breakpoint. https://solana.com/

OKX - The new way to build your crypto portfolio and use it in daily life. We call it the new money app. https://www.okx.com/

Google Cloud - The next generation of unicorns is building on Google Cloud's industry-leading, fully integrated AI stack: infrastructure, platform, models, agents, and data. https://cloud.google.com/

IREN - IREN AI Cloud, powered by NVIDIA GPUs, provides the scale, performance, and reliability to accelerate your AI journey. https://iren.com/

Oracle - Step into the future of enterprise productivity at Oracle AI Experience Live. https://www.oracle.com/

Circle - The America-based company behind USDC — a fully-reserved, enterprise-grade stablecoin at the core of the emerging internet financial system. https://www.circle.com/

BVNK - Building stablecoin-powered financial infrastructure that helps businesses send, store, and spend value instantly, anywhere in the world. https://www.bvnk.com/

Polymarket: https://www.polymarket.com/

Follow Elon:

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Intro Music Credit:

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Intro Video Credit:

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• Personalized, mastery-based learning (driven by AI) can enable students to learn 10x faster, mastering material in just two hours a day and freeing up time for real-world skills, entrepreneurship, and personal interests
• Motivation is essential: Kids must love school for it to be effective. The greatest motivator is giving students time back in their day, achieved by efficient mastery learning.
• Time-based, lecture-driven models leave knowledge gaps: Most U.S. students plateau in middle school, as traditional education pushes content too fast, resulting in a fragile “swiss-cheese” learning foundation
• AI’s transformational role: With generative AI, obsolete textbooks and one-size-fits-all instruction are replaced by continuous, adaptive, and personalized feedback, tailored to each learner’s interests and needs.
• Feedback and growth mindset are superpowers: Receiving and seeking feedback in school builds resilience, accelerates learning, and prepares students to thrive beyond the classroom
• High standards + high support = success and happiness: Kids grow most when challenged and held to ambitious goals with strong mentoring, even if the process is uncomfortable.
• Gamification and engagement: Applying video game design and motivation mechanics to education can make learning irresistible, turning hard tasks into meaningful and fun challenges
• No one-size-fits-all: Multiple school types, customized daily schedules, and teaching entrepreneurship, leadership, and teamwork ensure education aligns with each child’s unique strengths and ambitions.
• “I think this is one of the coolest projects happening in America that people are just starting to learn about.” – Patrick O’Shaughnessy on Alpha School 

My guest today is Joe Liemandt. Joe is the Principal at Alpha School and the founder of Triliogy Software and ESW Capital. He became the youngest member of the Forbes 400 in the 1990s before vanishing from public view for two decades—only to emerge with a $1 billion bet that he can make kids learn 10x faster using AI. Joe has built an AI tutoring system so effective that students at his Alpha School literally beg not to take summer breaks, achieving 2x learning outcomes in just 2 hours with standardized test results that compete with the best of them.

We dive deep into why this could be the most valuable product he's ever built, his contrarian thesis that traditional SaaS is facing AI-driven obsolescence, and how his experience buying 100+ software companies prepared him for this moonshot in a trillion-dollar market that hasn't innovated in 200 years.  For investors, this is a masterclass in deploying patient capital to rebuild broken systems from first principles, with insights on everything from regulatory moats to the intersection of AI and human psychology.

As your excited skeptic, I push hard on the technology readiness, parental adoption hurdles, and whether this audacious vision can actually scale to a billion kids. Additionally, in a Colossus Profile released last week, our editor-in-chief Jeremy Stern reported, for the first time, Joe as the product guy behind Alpha School in a can’t miss piece of writing. And now please enjoy my conversation with Joe Liemandt. 

Joe Liemandt’s Colossus Profile by Jeremy Stern.

For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ramp⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ramp’s mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ramp.com/invest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus.

–

This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ridgeline⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ridgeline has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Head to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ridgelineapps.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to learn more about the platform.

–

This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ AlphaSense⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. AlphaSense has completely transformed the research process with cutting-edge AI technology and a vast collection of top-tier, reliable business content. Invest Like the Best listeners can get a free trial now at⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Alpha-Sense.com/Invest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and experience firsthand how AlphaSense and Tegus help you make smarter decisions faster.

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Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠).

Show Notes:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best(00:06:08) How Alpha School Is Revolutionizing Learning(00:12:47) Personalized Tutoring with AI(00:19:59) Measuring the Impossible: 2x Learning Outcomes(00:25:39) All Educational Content Is Obsolete(00:35:51) Motivating Students: The Key to Success(00:42:06) Life Skills Workshops: Real-World Lessons(00:47:47) The Key to Happiness: High Standards(00:52:33) The Role of Guides and Coaches(00:58:22) Feedback Loops and AI in Education(01:04:20) The AI-Powered Classroom Experience(01:18:06) From Self-Doubt to Limitless Learning(01:28:20) Challenges in Public School Systems(01:41:56) Gamified Learning and Technology(01:49:46) From Trilogy to Trillion-Dollar Markets(01:55:05) Why Software Companies Fail(02:01:21) Trilogy University(02:10:39) Lessons from Mentors(02:17:25) Pushing Limits and Finding Passion(02:27:12) Joe's Kindest Thing

• Future historians will look back on this era and wonder why we needed a license to cut hair but not a license to own and operate a computer – the most powerful device ever created 
• There is a power law for M&A just like there is a power law for startups: the best M&A can completely transform a company, but only about 10% of deals ever work out 
• “The actual way of regulating big companies is with a thousand startup piranhas, not by regulation.” – Balaji 
  • A large acquisition signals the big company’s inability to build the product in-house, while also fueling the startup ecosystem by attracting talent and investment to that market vertical and spurring competition.
• The ultimate form of American capitalism is exploiting the rules in a clever way 
• Balaji’s global pro-tech legislative playbook:
  • Identify the optimal legal framework for each market and vertical
  • Develop standardized, modular policy templates for all 50 U.S. states and 190 sovereign nations
  • Build a government-relations team to establish and scale relationships across jurisdictions
  • Identify and engage pro-tech policymakers (with emphasis on small, builder-friendly states) and deploy capital into markets that implement the model legislation
• The greatest risk to AI innovation is arbitrary regulation; allowing market dynamics to operate freely will accelerate progress and distribute benefits broadly
• The question we all should be asking is, how do we build competition against the monopoly that is the US government 

There’s been a wave of M&A deals lately - Meta and Scale, Windsurf and Google - and a lot of it points to something bigger: how regulation, capital, and innovation are colliding in 2025.

In this episode Erik Torenberg brings together Steven Sinofsky, former Microsoft Executive and Balaji Srinivasan, founder of the Network School, and author of the Network State to break it all down. 

From acquihires to “acquifires,” from FTC crackdowns to the deeper battle between the state and the network, this is a sharp conversation on the future of tech and power.

Resources

Find Balaji on X: https://x.com/balajis

Find Steven on X: https://x.com/stevesi

Learn more about The Network State: https://thenetworkstate.com

Learn more about The Network School: https://ns.com

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

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• Advice for future innovators: Work on something that you would be proud to fail at
• “There’s a whole generation or two that did not go into aviation because the door was closed to innovation.” – Blake Scholl  
• Great people do not want to work for bosses who do not know what they are doing: There is no substitute for actually knowing what you are talking about and doing the work 
• The world does not need more of what it has already got; the world needs more of what you can uniquely bring 
• The incentives of government regulation agencies create an asymmetric bias towards conservatism, a reality that ultimately stifles progress and innovation; this centralizes and monopolizes risk decisions into the hands of government regulators 
• The smaller the team, the easier it is to keep the talent bar high; the number one thing great people want is to work with other great people

• Using AI to create a talent engine: Have the AI handle the boring and rudimentary tasks so that human talent can work on the most interesting problems; this creates a flywheel of talent retention and magnetism
• Be unafraid to deploy inexperienced, high-aptitude talent – but phone somebody who has some gray hair 

Blake Scholl is the Founder and CEO of Boom Supersonic, a company he started in 2014 to revive commercial supersonic flight with the Overture airliner, designed to fly at Mach 1.7 and carry 64–80 passengers. 

A Carnegie Mellon University computer science graduate (BS, 2001), Scholl began his career as a software engineer at Amazon, later owning a $300 million P&L at age 24, and co-founded Kima Labs, acquired by Groupon in 2012. 

Inspired by seeing Concorde in a museum, he self-taught aerospace engineering to launch Boom, which achieved the first privately developed supersonic flight with the XB-1 demonstrator in January 2025. With orders from United, American, and Japan Airlines, Scholl aims to make sustainable supersonic travel mainstream using 100% sustainable aviation fuel, targeting passenger flights by 2030.

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• Distribution was so scarce not too long ago: The Unabomber killed all those people so he could get an op-ed in the Washington Post; today, he could have published his manifesto on Substack

• Founders should go directly and build their distribution channel 

What really caused the breakdown between tech and media—and what comes next?

Erik Torenberg sits down with Balaji Srinivasan (entrepreneur, investor, and author of The Network State) to explore the long-building conflict between Silicon Valley and legacy journalism. Balaji explains how the collapse of traditional media business models gave rise to political capture, clickbait, and adversarial coverage of the tech industry.

They discuss why “going direct” is no longer optional, how tech became the villain in establishment narratives, and what it would take to build a new truth infrastructure - from decentralized content creation to cryptographic verification.

This episode covers power, distribution, and the future of media, with a signature mix of historical insight, social analysis, and Balaji’s forward-looking frameworks.

Timecodes: 

0:00 Introduction 

1:26 The Media vs. Tech Conflict

2:11 The Collapse of Journalism Revenue

2:39 Rise of Wokeness and Political Realignment

6:50 State vs. Network: A New Framework

9:00 The Power Structure of Media Institutions

19:25 The Role of Distribution and the Internet

29:20 The Social War: Red vs. Blue America

30:05 X Day and the Shift in Social Media Power

42:56 Strategies for Technologists: Go Direct

48:36 The Importance of Individual Creators

1:10:00 Decentralized Truth and the Ledger of Record

1:36:00 The Future of Media, Democracy, and Equality

1:37:08 Conclusion & Final Thoughts

Resources

Find Balaji on X: https://x.com/balajis

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Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

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• FarmBot is a robotic farmer for your garden, designed to take care of your garden by performing functions such as planting seeds, watering, weeding, and monitoring
• Simply being open source is not enough. For a project to be genuinely useful, it must also have extensive, clear documentation and use open, affordable file formats
• Today, the vast majority of food that people eat is grown very far away and in ways that is not great for the food or environment

• We have very little control over the food production system, which is vital to our existence  
• Let us get back to the smaller scale, more diverse polycrop system of food production; many follow-on benefits will result 

On this episode of Crazy Wisdom, Stewart Alsop speaks with Rory Aronson, CEO of FarmBot, about how his open-source hardware project is transforming home gardening into a more automated and accessible practice. Rory explains how FarmBot works—essentially as a CNC machine for your garden—covering its evolution from Arduino-based electronics to custom boards, the challenges of integrating hardware and software, and the role of closed-loop feedback systems to prevent errors. They explore solarpunk visions of distributed food systems, discuss the importance of “useful source” documentation in open-source hardware, and imagine a future where growing food is as easy as running a dishwasher. For more on Rory and FarmBot, check out farm.bot and the open-source resources at docs.farm.bot.

Check out this GPT we trained on the conversation

Timestamps

00:00 Rory explains FarmBot as a CNC machine for gardens, using Arduino and Raspberry Pi, automating planting, watering, and weeding.

05:00 Discussion on the hardware stack evolution, open-source electronics roots, and moving to custom boards for better integration.

10:00 Stewart shares his Raspberry Pi experiments, Rory breaks down the software layers from cloud apps to firmware, emphasizing complexity.

15:00 Conversation shifts to closed-loop feedback with rotary encoders, avoiding 3D printer-style “spaghetti” errors in outdoor environments.

20:00 Rory explores open-source challenges, highlighting “useful source” documentation and hardware accessibility for modifications.

25:00 Solarpunk vision emerges: distributed food systems, automation enabling home-grown fresh food without expert knowledge.

30:00 Raised bed setup, energy efficiency, and FarmBot as a home appliance concept for urban and suburban gardens.

35:00 Small-scale versus industrial farming, niche commercial uses like seedling automation, and user creativity with custom tools.

40:00 AI potential with vision systems, LLMs for garden planning, and enhancing FarmBot intelligence for real-time adaptation.

45:00 Sensors, soil monitoring, image analysis for plant health, and empowering users to integrate FarmBot into smart homes.

50:00 Rory describes community innovations, auxiliary hardware, and open documentation supporting experimentation.

55:00 Final reflections on solarpunk futures, automation as empowerment, and how to access FarmBot’s resources online.

Key Insights

1. Rory Aronson shares how FarmBot began as a DIY project built on Arduino and Raspberry Pi, leveraging the open-source 3D printing ecosystem to prototype quickly. Over time, they transitioned to custom circuit boards to meet the specific demands of automating gardening tasks like seed planting, watering, and weeding, highlighting the tradeoffs between speed to market and long-term hardware optimization.
2. The conversation unpacks the complexity of FarmBot’s “stack,” which integrates cloud-based software, a web app, a message broker, a Raspberry Pi running a custom OS, and firmware on both Arduino and auxiliary chips for real-time feedback. This layered approach is crucial for precision in an unpredictable outdoor environment where mechanical errors could damage growing plants.
3. Aronson emphasizes that being open source isn’t enough; to be genuinely useful, projects must provide extensive, accessible documentation and export files in open, affordable formats. Without this, open source risks being a hollow promise for most users, especially in hardware where barriers to modification are higher.
4. They explore the solarpunk potential of FarmBot, imagining a future where growing food at home is as effortless as using a washing machine. By turning gardening into an automated process, FarmBot enables people to produce fresh vegetables without needing expertise, offering resilience against industrial food systems reliant on monoculture and long supply chains.
5. Aronson points out that while FarmBot isn’t designed for industrial agriculture, its modularity allows it to support niche commercial use cases, like automating seedling production in cleanroom environments. This adaptability reflects the broader vision of empowering both individuals and small operations with accessible automation tools.
6. The episode highlights user creativity enabled by FarmBot’s open hardware, including custom tools like side-mounted mirrors for alternative camera angles and pneumatic grippers for harvesting. These community-driven innovations showcase the platform’s flexibility and the value of encouraging experimentation.
7. Finally, Aronson sees great potential for integrating AI, particularly vision systems and multimodal LLMs, to make FarmBot smarter—detecting pests, diagnosing plant health, and even planning gardens tailored to user goals like nutrient needs or event timelines, moving closer to a truly intelligent gardening companion.