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Saudi-UAE infighting has broken Yemen containment — and Israel is now stuck with the Houthis who are actually the only winners! Right, so Saudi Arabia and the UAE haven’t just fallen out over Yemen - they’ve blown up the entire system that kept the mess off everyone else’s doorstep whilst they were at it, and I’m sure you’ll be broken-hearted to hear that Israel is the one left with the fallout. Allies who swore they were aligned, running the same war for completely different reasons as they were in Yemen, but then start sabotaging each other instead. That’s exactly what’s happening now. Saudi jets are hitting a UAE-backed project, separatists are closing airports and blocking planes, and the so-called coalition that was meant to keep the Houthis boxed in is eating itself alive. Popcorn time for Ansarallah! And while the Gulf states posture and squabble, the Red Sea turns into a bigger and bigger problem Israel can’t outsource anymore, Somaliland plans or not. So in this video I’m going to show you how this arrangement really worked, why it was always so brittle we shouldn’t be surprised its falling apart like it is, and why this seemingly unconnected set of events is so bad for Israel, whilst handing the Houthis a win at the same time. Right, so Saudi Arabia’s project is simple enough: keep a Yemeni state-shaped thing alive on its border that won’t turn into a permanent security leak, keep a corridor of influence running down Yemen’s eastern flank, and get out of a ruinous conflict without admitting defeat. The UAE’s project is not that. The UAE has built relationships with forces that don’t need Sana’a to fall and don’t need Yemen to reunify; they need the coastline, the ports, the islands, the shipping lanes, and the local security forces that can hold them. If you’re Saudi Arabia, that looks like an ally freelancing in your backyard. If you’re the UAE, that looks like investing in the only assets that actually matter in a post-state Yemen. The “new cold war” framing becomes real when the two projects collide over the one thing neither can fake: who controls the south of the Arabian Peninsula, and who gets to decide what “stability” even means there anymore.
By Damien WilleySaudi-UAE infighting has broken Yemen containment — and Israel is now stuck with the Houthis who are actually the only winners! Right, so Saudi Arabia and the UAE haven’t just fallen out over Yemen - they’ve blown up the entire system that kept the mess off everyone else’s doorstep whilst they were at it, and I’m sure you’ll be broken-hearted to hear that Israel is the one left with the fallout. Allies who swore they were aligned, running the same war for completely different reasons as they were in Yemen, but then start sabotaging each other instead. That’s exactly what’s happening now. Saudi jets are hitting a UAE-backed project, separatists are closing airports and blocking planes, and the so-called coalition that was meant to keep the Houthis boxed in is eating itself alive. Popcorn time for Ansarallah! And while the Gulf states posture and squabble, the Red Sea turns into a bigger and bigger problem Israel can’t outsource anymore, Somaliland plans or not. So in this video I’m going to show you how this arrangement really worked, why it was always so brittle we shouldn’t be surprised its falling apart like it is, and why this seemingly unconnected set of events is so bad for Israel, whilst handing the Houthis a win at the same time. Right, so Saudi Arabia’s project is simple enough: keep a Yemeni state-shaped thing alive on its border that won’t turn into a permanent security leak, keep a corridor of influence running down Yemen’s eastern flank, and get out of a ruinous conflict without admitting defeat. The UAE’s project is not that. The UAE has built relationships with forces that don’t need Sana’a to fall and don’t need Yemen to reunify; they need the coastline, the ports, the islands, the shipping lanes, and the local security forces that can hold them. If you’re Saudi Arabia, that looks like an ally freelancing in your backyard. If you’re the UAE, that looks like investing in the only assets that actually matter in a post-state Yemen. The “new cold war” framing becomes real when the two projects collide over the one thing neither can fake: who controls the south of the Arabian Peninsula, and who gets to decide what “stability” even means there anymore.