Israel's plans for further war in Lebanon have hit a major snag - Saudi Arabia don't want to pay for it if they get no say in the matter! Right, so Israel has reached the point where it thinks it can dictate the terms of Lebanon’s survival, and it’s doing it openly now, without even pretending the threat is conditional. Extremist defence minister Israel Katz stands in the Knesset and says Hezbollah must disarm by the end of the year or Israel will “work forcefully again in Lebanon,” and he ties that threat to the assassination they’ve just carried out in Beirut’s southern suburb as if that ki*ling is an argument rather than a violation. Then Egypt arrives in Beirut using a tone Lebanese officials describe as threatening, warning that a massive b*mbing campaign and a ground invasion may be imminent unless Lebanon complies. And in the middle of that pressure, Lebanon’s own prime minister turns his criticism not on Israel over this, but on Hezbollah for failing to disarm having failed to be a deterrent! If Lebanon’s own leadership is determined to punch inwards therefore, who can possibly come to Lebanon’s rescue? Well as it happens there is a twist in this tale because Saudi Arabia — the financier Israel is banking on to pay for all of this while Israel and the US call all of the shots — has quietly signalled it has no intention of paying for a political order built without it. Perhaps saviour is too strong a word for them therefore, but if the outcome is the same, does it matter? Right, so let’s walk through this properly because the stories coming out of Lebanon, Israel, and the Gulf aren’t separate threads; they’re the same crisis seen from different angles, and the thing you realise once you put them next to each other is that the region’s centre of gravity is shifting underneath Israel right as it tries to force a deadline on Lebanon. And Israel knows exactly what it’s doing with that deadline, because you don’t stand up in your parliament, point at an assassination you’ve just carried out in the capital city of a neighbouring country, call it “proof” of your intent, and then stick a date on the table unless you’re preparing the ground for escalation. That’s the point. Israel Katz isn’t improvising. He’s announcing a timetable and pretending it’s a condition. He’s saying Hezbollah must disarm by the end of 2025, and he’s saying it in the tone of someone who believes he’s setting the pace, and he’s using the k*lling of a Hezbollah official in Beirut’s southern suburb as if that assassination is some form of political leverage, which it is, because it’s not a secret strike anymore; it’s a political message dressed up as enforcement.