The U.S. economy has remained surprisingly resilient, but persistent inflation, a cooling labor market, rising government debt, and a massive wave of AI investment are creating a far more complicated outlook for investors.
This week, Jennifer sits down with economist Richard Barkham to examine the major macro forces shaping the second half of 2026 and what they could mean for commercial real estate. Richard shares his perspective on why inflation may remain structurally higher in a more fragmented global economy, how tariffs and labor constraints are affecting prices, and why rising government debt is increasingly showing up in Treasury yields and real estate pricing.
We also unpack the extraordinary scale of AI investment in the United States, its role in supporting economic growth, and the possibility that rapid development could lead to overinvestment before its full productivity benefits are realized.
If you're trying to understand where the economy is headed and how today’s macro forces could ultimately filter into commercial real estate, this conversation offers important context for navigating the market ahead.
In this episode, we cover:
00:00 Intro and Meet Richard Barkham 01:23 The U.S. Macro Outlook for the Second Half of 2026 04:15 Persistent Inflation and the Impact of Economic Policy 07:55 Government Debt, Treasury Yields and Real Estate Pricing 09:58 Deglobalization, Geopolitics and Defense Spending 12:41 AI Investment and the U.S. Economy 16:41 Is the AI Boom Becoming a Bubble? 19:33 AI, Productivity and the Future of Work
Guest Bio: Richard Barkham is the former Global Chief Economist and Global Head of Research for CBRE and a specialist in macro and real estate economics. He is currently a Senior Fellow and Lecturer in Real Estate at the Harvard University Graduate School of Design, a Professor of Practice at the University of North Carolina, an Honorary Professor at the Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction at University College London, and a member of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.
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Join us next week for Part Two with Richard Barkham, where we shift the conversation to commercial real estate pricing, distress, property-sector fundamentals, and where opportunities may be emerging in the next real estate cycle.
Keywords: 2026 economic outlook, U.S. economy, commercial real estate, CRE market, inflation, interest rates, Federal Reserve, Treasury yields, government debt, AI investment, artificial intelligence, data centers, deglobalization, real estate economics, macroeconomic trends