This Friday predictions short opens five new falsifiable calls to the public Brier ledger: the US Navy F/A-XX SDD downselect between Boeing and Northrop Grumman by September 30 (55%), definitization or production obligation of the $35.33B THAAD sole-source UCA by year-end (55%), Australia's new DDG acquisition entity announcing its first major contract decision by year-end (55%), the House Appropr predictions · Brier ledger · THAAD · Lockheed Martin

This Friday predictions short opens five new falsifiable calls to the public Brier ledger: the GCAP full development contract signature with Edgewing by June 30 (80%), at least one AUKUS Pillar II undersea-autonomy solicitation by September 30 (65%), a Camden PAC-3 MSE capacity action by year-end (55%), publication of the UK Defence Investment Plan before the Ankara NATO Summit (60%), and BAE Syst

The UAE's $2.1B FS-LIDS counter-drone emergency FMS (Raytheon/RTX + Northrop Grumman), the contract vehicle, and the investor/BD/policy beats.

Israel's Arrow-3/Arrow-2 ballistic-missile-defense interceptor surge, the industrial-base read on the listed primes, and the dated catalysts to watch.

The April 10 DSCA notification of a $360.3M HIMARS sale to Lithuania, the Camden, Arkansas production constraint, and a logged Brier prediction on the LOA.

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