SCBS 2/6/2565 : Today BTS BTSGIF Analyst meeting at 14.00/THANI Neutral,upgrade tp to Bt 4.90/ Digital Asset and Vietnam report*** # GS expects MSCI China earning to bottom out in 3Q22, but 2022 consensus forecast remain too optimistic and more downgrades are likely.
# GS still OW China with a 20% upside for 12m basis, China is still trading at 15% below fair PE target, while the regulation cycle is turning.
# THANI - Better loan growth and asset quality : THANI revised its 2022 loan drawdown target to at least Bt28-29bn (20-25%) from Bt26-27bn (12-15%) and loans outstanding to Bt54-55bn (9-11%). THANI is considering stepping back on adding management overlay provisions as NPL eased by -78bp to 3%.
We raise 2022F loan growth to +10% (from +6%) and revise down 2022/23 credit cost by -5bp each to 0.95%. Thus we raise 2022/23F by +2%/+3% with earning recovery of +13%/+7%. Maintain Neutral TP raised to Bt4.9 (from Bt4.5).