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Amanda Rastovic turns to the Strait of Hormuz and lasting tensions between the U.S. and Iran as both force exchange fire once again. "It's kind of questionable what is moving through" the Strait at this time, says Amanda, who explains how the sluggish waterway traffic will create lasting implication for global trade in the months to come.
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A pullback is on the table for September, says Jay Woods, who calls out seasonal volatility and tech's recent surge as dominos that can fall and lead to a chain reaction. The question he poses to investors: "how long with the stumble happen" before an eventual rebound? Jay sees the software sector leading bullish momentum, calling out Microsoft (MSFT) and Palantir (PLTR) as "gapping and going" to lead its peers.
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Deere (DE) shares have experienced strong consolidation over the last few months, as Rachel Dashiell of Charles Schwab points to key support and resistance levels to note in the stock chart. As she explains, Deere's entire sector is hitting critical support, offering more opportunity for a further rally.
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Adam Lampe believes there's still plenty of upside potential in markets even as the macro front faces a new test in renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran. In the tech space, he says Alphabet (GOOGL) remains a key AI play "even as the market writes its own obituary" for some aspects of the company. Adam names Broadcom (AVGO) as another key stock to watch. He then turns to the broader energy trade and the need for more power as the AI buildout accelerates.
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The U.S. and Iran publicly acknowledged strikes against each other for the first time in over a month. Jenny Horne points out that the headlines have sent crude oil prices spiking ahead of Monday's trading session and highlights macro movers to keep an eye on this week. Among the key data points to watch: the August jobs report, JOLTS, and ADP employment.
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With back to school season in full swing, Charles O'Shea turns to the retail sector and its durability and earnings potential ahead. He discusses the headwinds and tailwinds he sees for companies across the sector, from Kohl's (KSS) and Gap (GAP) in the clothing space, to retail giants like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT). Tom White offers an example options trade for Walmart.
Cooper Howard from @CharlesSchwab says he's surprised with how hawkish Fed Chair Kevin Warsh came off during his speech at Jackson Hole. He tells investors to keep an eye on incoming inflation data as the FOMC clearly emphasizes inflation as the metric to watch. Jim Farraioli talks about the "rebirth of the debasement trade" and how the tone of Warsh's press conference shapes Bitcoin and gold prices. He outlines the path ahead for crypto with a coin flip chance of an interest rate hike on the table.
Orphe Divounguy recaps Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole. He notes Warsh's comments on the labor force slowdown and AI's investment boom aiding it as a key takeaway, believing it will keep the FOMC focused on inflation. On the housing market, Orphe says Warsh is facing restraint from the bond market as "part of the calculus" to countering further weakness.
Tony Zipparro says the headline numbers for Big Tech earnings like Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) show "phenomenal" growth. The problem he sees lies in how the numbers will affect GDP, along with raising questions on how these earnings pave a clear path to AI ROI. Tony also explains that the growth picture faces a key headwind: a K-shaped economy where the bottom third of Americans are struggling.
Carol Schleif discusses the volatility she expects to see around the Fed's Jackson Home symposium and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech. On the path of interest rates, she tells investors to brace for a mostly neutral road ahead as the FOMC remains divided on how to read inflation and jobs data. For inflation in particular, Carol notes the U.S.-Iran war and tariffs making the Fed's job even harder.
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