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As the Fed readies to decide on the direction of interest rates at the end of October, William Lee tells U.S. investors to look abroad. He explains how countries like France and other European giants "lost" the central banking narrative and discusses ways it applied to the U.S. William adds that the Fed is "fighting the wrong fight" in its efforts to curb inflation. Josh Taves expands more on the debt outlook and pressures it places on an already-strained inflation picture. He believes another rate hike is likely in October as opposed to December.
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Preston Caldwell of Morningstar Wealth argues the AI investment boom is strengthening economic demand and helping keep interest rates higher, even as AI could ultimately become deflationary through productivity gains. He discusses how strong core inflation, the labor market and AI spending could influence the Fed, while a slowdown in investment or rise in layoffs could eventually bring lower rates. Caldwell also highlights TIPS as a way to protect against inflation and potential U.S. debt risks.
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On the fourth anniversary of the current bull market, Tim Biggam points out the pushback against stocks as crude oil and Treasury yields stay elevated. That doesn't mean he doesn't see trading opportunities in Monday's session, calling out three stocks he believes overextended their recent rallies. He outlines Palantir (PLTR) after hitting new all-time highs, Moderna (MRNA) as it continues to break out to a near-five-year high, and Dell Technologies (DELL) maintaining momentum from two earnings seasons prior. Tim turns to a trio of example options trades for his picks while Kevin Green offers his technical analysis in all three stocks.
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Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6D
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Jim Iuorio discusses the "excellent" demand in bonds through the 10-year Treasury auction. The U.S.-Iran war, paired with international bond moves, lead Jim to believe yields will persistently maintain upward momentum. He explains how several macro factors will keep Treasury yields top of mind for investors and the impact they have on equities. A surge in global liquidity adds to Jim's bull case for Treasury yields. He turns to SpaceX (SPCX) and ways the company's low-band spectrum license gives them much more muscle in the space stock race.
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Daniel Rich of CFRA Research previews UnitedHealth (UNH) earnings as the insurer works through elevated medical costs and margin pressure. He sees longer-term upside from premium increases, Medicare Advantage ratings, AI-driven cost cuts and resumed share buybacks. Tom White closes with a UNH options trade.
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There's a clear divide in AI-tied software names between downgrades in Microsoft (MSFT), Palantir (PLTR), and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) while Salesforce (CRM) received a double upgrade. Sam Vadas discusses the factors BofA sees in taking the leap into the bull camp as other key software names struggle on the session. Prosper Trading Academy's Scott Bauer turns to an example options trade for Salesforce (CRM).
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What will Wednesday's CPI print mean for the Fed's interest rate cycle? Collin Martin of Charles Schwab expects one more rate hike between now and end of year, but not until December. He believes the numbers need to show a sharp upside surprise for the FOMC to hike rates again in October, noting Fed governor expectations cooling for the immediate need to hike again. Collin also discusses the 10-year Treasury yield and what multi-decade highs means for earnings and corporate borrowing.
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Michael Shaoul discusses the Fed, election risks, AI and the earnings outlook heading into year-end. He remains bullish on energy and crude oil, which he says could move into triple digits, while warning that high expectations leave semiconductors vulnerable. Shaoul sees macro forces gaining importance as investors weigh rates, geopolitics and whether tech earnings can deliver.
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Consolidation is the word of Monday's trading day, according to Kevin Green, who highlights his technical analysis in a flat S&P 500 (SPX) within 30 minutes of the opening bell. Tech began the session under pressure while energy rallied alongside crude oil. KG discusses energy crack spreads and the lasting price elevation in diesel as futures hover at a key resistance area. As for the inflation outlook, he weighs how CPI will shape the Fed's interest rate outlook as earnings season begins.
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Mario Lagana sees strong technical momentum in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 (SPX), but warns that weak market breadth remains a concern. He highlights strength in software and cybersecurity, including CIBR ETF, CrowdStrike (CRWD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Fortinet (FTNT), while also watching AbbVie (ABBV), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) and Urban Outfitters (URBN). Lagana says earnings and forward guidance could determine whether the market resumes its uptrend.
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