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Ted Thatcher believes the uptick in GDP and corporate profits confirm an incoming uptrend for the stock market even as macro volatility takes aim at current momentum. He's in the camp the S&P 500 (SPX) will reach 8,000 by the end of 2026 and believes the index would be significantly higher if not for the U.S.-Iran war. One key bearish indicator he sees for equities: lasting pressure from price hikes in the energy trade. Ted still expects to see high demand for Treasury yields even as the 10-year and 30-year hit multi-decade highs. He turns to his outlook for the financial sector as big banks get ready to report earnings.
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Marvell (MRVL) continues to show compelling risk-reward dynamics, says William Kerwin of Morningstar Wealth. He says the company is "firing on all cylinders" as an AI optics leader benefitting from the continuous data center buildout. Even as the bar for earnings gets higher, William expects Marvell to hop over it even as incoming IPOs like OpenAI and Anthropic add question marks to the AI trade. Tom White offers an example options trade for Marvell.
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Intel (INTC) CEO Lip-Bu Tan told reporters that the company will continue its involvement with SpaceX's (SPCX) Terafab project. The headline pushed shares of Intel higher while TSMC (TSM) slid. Alex Coffey discusses ways the development pushes back investor fears surrounding Intel and how the partnership plays a role in the greater AI trade. Scott Bauer of Prosper Trading Academy offers an example options trade for Intel.
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Charles Schwab's Rachel Dashiell turns to technical developments in the S&P 500 (SPX) that is creating a key resistance level for the index. Also mind the bearish divergence, leading what Rachel calls a tentative "false breakout." Beneath the surface, a "stealth correction" shows how market breadth in the S&P and Nasdaq-100 (NDX) soured in recent weeks. Rachel adds that crude oil is experiencing an "inflection point" as key technicals converge.
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Jim Paulsen warns that the economy and stock market are dangerously bifurcated, with AI and "new era" spending surging while the rest of the economy barely grows. He says tech complacency is the biggest risk right now after the longest tech boom in 100 years, and financial conditions have tightened sharply with the 10-year yield surging from 3.94% to 5.3%. He expects a pretty good correction over the next six months rather than a bear market, and recommends reallocating from new era stocks into defensive sectors and lifting bond weightings.
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Elevated yields and volatility in the bond market are the key movers Kevin Green is watching to start Wednesday's trading day. The S&P 500 (SPX) dove below one of KG's key levels as a result. He urges investors to watch the 10-year Treasury auction later Wednesday as the futures indicate a potential break in current trends. On the FOMC minutes, KG doesn't expect it to ignite a market catalyst as he sees another 25 basis points in interest rate hikes now until the end of 2026. Persistent tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to linger over the energy trade.
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Chris Versace, CIO at Tematica Research, remains long-term bullish on tech as AI and robotics drive a multiyear data center buildout. He sees Nvidia (NVDA), Marvell (MRVL), Broadcom (AVGO), and Arista Networks (ANET) as cheaper than people think on a P/E to growth basis. He says to avoid rate-sensitive areas like homebuilders while favoring consumer value plays like TJX Companies (TJX) and Costco (COST), and watching financials like Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC) for an IPO rebound.
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Constellation Brands (STZ) moved to the upside but linger near decade-lows after earnings, as Diane King Hall explains how the big picture of consumer demand differs from headline numbers in the report. NetApp (NTAP) opened at an all-time high after Evercore ISI upgraded the stock and boosted its price target. Diane also highlights reports that Apple (AAPL) is planning to add smart home devices to the Mag 7 giant's expansive tech catalog.
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Jonathan Corpina says market fundamentals are strong with the S&P 500 (SPX) hitting records but expects a breather as geopolitical risks and oil volatility linger. He sees the Mag 7 led by Nvidia (NVDA), AMD Inc. (AMD), CrowdStrike (CRWD), and Palo Alto (PANW) maintaining a strong grip on markets, with eventual rotation into financials and defensive names. Corpina points to the Fed, midterm elections, and geopolitical clarity as key factors for year end, plus the upcoming 24/5 trading rollout at the NYSE.
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Headlines surrounding Iran and claims the country wants nuclear enrichment independence added pressure to the stock market ahead of Wednesday's opening bell. Kevin Hincks makes the case that it shows discussions are happening between it and the U.S. As for U.S.-centric headlines, Kevin addresses the FOMC minutes and its capacity to move markets after the Fed made a unanimous decision to hike interest rates.
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