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Microsoft (MSFT) demand has accelerated since last quarter, says Megan Brantley of LikeFolio, especially when it comes to Azure cloud. She highlights the disconnect her data shows between the demand trends and moves in the Mag 7 stock. Megan explains what it all means for investors as the AI trade continues to accelerate.
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Mamadou-Abou Sarr, co-founder and president of V-Square Quantitative Management, says equities remain resilient with the S&P 500 up (SPX) about 2.8% for the quarter, driven by AI. He warns the 10-year yield above 5.3% could eventually overwhelm earnings growth, making a stronger case for active management and true diversification. He stresses that owning multiple asset classes isn't real diversification if they all share the same risk factors.
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Ed Butowsky says "you would want to be a fool to want to buy" Nike (NKE) after earnings. He makes the case the stock still has more room to the downside every after it plunged to 13-year lows. Jan Kniffen says the biggest problem remains product, with Nike lacking exciting new launches and facing intensifying competition from On Holding (ONON), Hoka, Adidas, and New Balance. He also sees China as a structural challenge where market share may not come back, and argues the stock is not cheap at a forward P/E of 23.
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Nicole Bachaud of ZipRecruiter, breaks down a weak September jobs report that added just 29,000 jobs with the prior two months revised lower and unemployment at 4.2%. She says the unemployment rise reflects more people reentering the labor force rather than job losses, though long-term unemployment is now 27% of the total and wage growth at 3% lags inflation. She also sees data center hiring surging with falling pay, AI construction jobs as temporary, and healthcare remaining a dominant growth sector as opportunities widen across the market.
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Treasury yields are commanding the stock market, says TheoTrade's Don Kaufman, pointing out that an uptick in bonds late morning added pressure to stocks. That said, he sees trading opportunities across various sectors. Don explains why he's offering a bearish example options trade for Target (TGT), along with bullish trades in the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) and Apple (AAPL). Rick Ducat dives into the technical trends he sees in the charts for each of Don's picks.
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Chris Ward says higher rates don't necessarily kill bull markets but they do create winners and losers as the cost of capital shifts after 15 years of cheap money. He likes the technology sector through the XLK ETF, where earnings are growing 70% year-over-year, and says the Mag 7 is essentially holding up the entire S&P 500 (SPX). He also favors international AI plays like TSMC (TSM), SK Hynix, and Samsung through the iShares Emerging Markets ex China ETF.
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In the race between hyperscalers to capitalize on the AI trade, R. "Ray" Wang says Alphabet (GOOGL) "is killing it" through Gemini and cloud expansions das booth boost in AI-related revenue. He explains what makes it different from Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), and Amazon (AMZN). As for Oracle (ORCL), Ray discusses whether the cloud company can justify its ballooning CapEx. Tom White offers an example options trade for Alphabet.
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Nike (NKE) shares plummeted to historic lows following yet another earnings report showing weakness in the company's turnaround plan. Marley Kayden discusses key metrics in the legacy athletic company's report to help investors gauge the stock's forward momentum. Dan Deming offers an example options trade for Nike.
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There's some strength under the surface of the weaker-than-expected September jobs report, though as Collin Martin of Charles Schwab states, pointing to stability for the labor market. However, Treasury yields are keeping equity investors on edge. Alexanandra Semenova addresses concerns of market breadth with the S&P 500 (SPX) Equal Weight hitting its seventh straight week of losses, a rare sight based on historic metrics. It's something she sees setting the stage for broadening strength shaping up during the incoming earnings season.
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Ken Kim of KPMG says the latest jobs report shows payroll growth stalling and paychecks losing ground, giving the Fed room to hold off on a rate hike this month. He still expects a December hike as inflation remains too hot, with PMI price measures rising and elevated energy costs feeding pipeline inflation. He also notes that immigration losses are tightening labor supply and pushing up wages in select industries like leisure and healthcare.
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