SHOWNOTES

This week we open with the Google antitrust decision, then dive into Exhibits C (Oil), B (Natural Gas), and A (U.S. finances) before a tech deep-dive on AI capacity, TPUs vs GPUs, and close with healthcare policy shifts.

[00:00] Intro

[00:38] Disclaimer

General investing discussion only; do your own work. Views are the hosts’ alone.

[00:51] Exhibit C – Oil (Exhibit C)

Geopolitics keeps crude “stuck” around $62–64 with a flat curve (no backwardation). Spare capacity from Saudi/UAE plus tepid demand (+~0.4 mb/d 2H) cap prices; at these levels, U.S. completions slow and ~3 mb/d global surplus could burn off over ~18 months. U.S. output near ~13 mb/d (from ~11.9 in ’22) likely flattens.

[03:07] Exhibit B – Natural Gas

Near-month gas dips under $3 after holding $4–4.25 for ’25–’26; shoulder-month seasonality adds pressure. Dry gas production trending ~108 (from ~106) looks entrenched; power demand is surprisingly flat (coal retirements slower), while LNG rises—netting out to softer pricing.

[04:37] Exhibit A – U.S. Government Cash Flow

Budget brinkmanship keeps Exhibit A in the headlines into Oct. Targeting a deficit move from just under $2T to ~$1.5T would be progress, with $1T the real goal. Ten-year rate resilience matters; if deficits bend down and debt/GDP stabilizes, the U.S. could outperform Europe/Japan/China.

[05:28] Macro: Rates, Dollar & Gold

Beyond the policy rate, markets set the rest—carry dynamics have limits without adding risk. Central banks now hold more gold (by value) than USD reserves, framing the dollar as the “least bad currency.” AI-driven productivity could help “grow our way” out of deficits.

[09:08] Google Antitrust: Defaults Without Exclusivity

The ruling labels Google an illegal monopoly in search but stops short of break-ups; exclusive search deals must end, yet paid defaults continue (Apple’s ~$20B+/yr remains in play). Google may need to license index/interaction data at marginal cost, potentially aiding competitors (e.g., OpenAI). Non-exclusive deals could cut Google’s payments—or invite a Meta bid to become the iPhone’s AI-first gateway (with Apple’s 30% app economics inside the App Store). Parallel talks: Siri ↔ Gemini; Meta exploring Google capacity underscores a broader compute crunch.

[16:22] TPU vs GPU: Who Wins Inference?

China’s domestic stack (e.g., homegrown accelerators) plus energy policy could brute-force parity despite lower-spec chips. Google’s vertically integrated TPUs may lower inference cost; NVIDIA counters with rapid cadence and an inference-tilted roadmap (GB300, “Rubin” series). Ultimately, all-in “cost per token” decides share.

[20:13] Healthcare News: Labels, SNAP & CDC

Texas moves to flag ingredients banned abroad on food labels, restricts SNAP “junk food,” and expands nutrition education—watch for copycat states or FDA action. CDC leadership churn sparks debate; quick course-correction can be healthy if fit is wrong. Broader reviews (and even autism-cause inquiries) spotlight a needed return to open scientific debate.

[24:36] Next Week: Biotech History Tease

From penicillin back to early natural-product hunts—when scientists literally brought home dirt to find new drugs. A fun look at the explorer mindset that seeded modern biotech.

[26:28] Outro & Disclaimer

Standard disclosures; information believed reliable but not guaranteed. Hosts may hold positions mentioned.

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com