Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

• Market uncertainty and political turmoil over Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China

• Increasing US-China tensions

• Anthropic’s Claude Code displays reward-hacking tendencies.

Forecaster Estimates

Taiwan has been a hot topic in the last week as China ramps up their military exercises. On the question of whether China would attempt to invade Taiwan by 2030, forecasters estimated a 43% chance of this occurring (range: 20% to 70%).

There has been significant speculation online over whether OpenAI has lost its edge. Our estimates on which AI company currently has the most capable general-purpose AI model internally are:

• P(OpenAI is in the lead) = 40%

• P(Google DeepMind is in the lead) = [...]

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Outline:

(00:35) Forecaster Estimates

(01:34) Geopolitics

(01:37) United States

(05:54) Canada

(06:07) Europe

(09:00) Middle East

(10:02) Africa

(10:28) Asia

(13:13) Biorisk

(14:35) Artificial Intelligence

(19:39) Miscellanea

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First published:

Source:

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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