Shadow Warrior by Rajeev Srinivasan

A version of this essay was published by firstpost.com at https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/shadow-warrior-does-the-war-in-israel-mark-the-end-of-pax-occidentalis-13235762.html

The attack by Hamas on Israel may well be remembered in future as marking the very moment the decline of the West became an indubitable fact. Thus October 7th, 2023 may be a point of inflection in geo-politics and geo-economics, although it is true that the economic center of gravity of the world has been moving eastwards (and southwards in future) for some time. 

The question really goes to the heart of the so-called ‘liberal rules-based international order’, which is a nice euphemism for ‘America and friends lay out the rules’. To give credit where it is due, this was a pretty good paradigm for the post-World-War-II period, and it helped much of Europe and East Asia advance economically, although it didn’t help India, Africa or Latin America much (and that was partly due to poorly thought-out self-imposed policies as well).

But like all empires and quasi-empires, this one has also deteriorated over time, partly as it was based on the presupposition of overwhelming American dominance. The US was supposed to be the global policeman who could arbitrate if necessary, and offer a bracing dose of punishment if someone erred. But that is no longer the case, as the US is bogged down in arguably futile wars. 

The rot goes much deeper, and affects every institution that has been built up by the ‘liberal, rules-based international order’. All of us thought the UN and in particular the Security Council would be champions at preserving world order, unlike the hapless League of Nations. But it has proven singularly ineffective, and the media didn’t even quote the Secretary General or the Security Council making a pro forma plea for peace in Israel on October 7th. 

The World Health Organization was another entity that lost much of its credibility in the wake of its hapless performance during the coronavirus pandemic. UNESCO has long since become a woke fortress, shorn of its earlier importance. The World Bank and IMF are so often  handmaidens of Western agendas and dogmas (see “Confessions of an Economic Hit Man”) that nobody mourns their eclipse as new lending institutions arise. 

The Nobel Prizes, we were brought up to believe, were the ultimate in impartial recognition of excellence. Perhaps in the sciences they still have some value, but the moment the Peace Prize was given to Henry Kissinger (and Le Duc Tho who had the grace to reject it), it became evident that it was political. Of course, never giving the Literature Prize to Leo Tolstoy had damaged it way back (Sully Prudhomme got it instead. Sully, a household name!). 

The less said about the Economics Prize the better. Just look at the Indian-origin winners or the New York Times columnist. I think I can rest my case.

In passing, there is this reputation that the Scandinavians have for fair play, partly because of the Nobels, and partly, I imagine, because they are blond, blue-eyed Vikings. But increasingly I have noticed that their antics on the environment (“How dare you!”), on politics (“we can judge the quality of your democracy via V-dem index”), on psychology (“happiness index”) and various others things suggest that some gaslighting is going on. But that’s just by the way.

The other institutions that we have always depended on are the media. It was practically a given for most of us that the BBC was objective and trustworthy, the VoA a little less so, and Pravda was full of propaganda. The NYT was the gold standard, the Economist and the FT were, if not paragons, worthy of respectful attention, despite charges of ‘manufacturing consent’. 

And the Lancet was impeccable, the very fountainhead of medical wisdom. During covid, it was stunning to find them endorsing research by an entity called Surgisphere, which, I wrote at the time in “Pious Frauds” (Open Magazine, June 2020), was a naked scam with the intention of deprecating a cheap off-patent medicine called hydroxychloroquine or HCQ. Let us compare prices: Rs. 6.25 for HCQ, Rs. 30,000 for Remdesivir. That must mean something.

Over the last year or so, revelation after revelation has exposed the ‘Censorship-Industrial Complex’ as a handmaiden of governments; particularly shocking has been the suggestion that the Biden administration has been hand-in-hand with Big Tech in defenestrating anybody whom the Thought Police did not like, eg those who opposed vaccine mandates. 

To be blunt, you cannot take Facebook/Meta, Google, YouTube, Apple, Amazon, Wikipedia, or any other Big Tech outlet at face value; parenthetically, and for different reasons, you cannot take anything spewed by chatbots like chatGPT or Google Bard seriously either. Twitter/X, after Elon Musk’s takeover, seems to be the least compromised news outlet available. 

But the real kicker comes with Mossad and Five Eyes, and Israel’s total unpreparedness for the Hamas offensive. Mossad is legendary for its almost superhuman acts to protect Israeli lives and property, and is the world’s most admired intelligence agency. On top of this, there is the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing mechanism among the Anglosphere. In the recent past, we have heard a lot about this in the context of Justin Trudeau and Khalistanis.

The impression that I, for one, had was that these people were masters at intelligence gathering, with sophisticated technical means including satellite reconnaissance that could spot any substantial logistics on the ground. It would have taken a lot of organization to gather 5,000 rockets and dozens of pickup trucks and hundreds of fighters, but none of this registered on their signals intelligence or human intelligence?

That is hard to believe. Except for the likelihood that Mossad and the Israeli armed forces have been distracted by the internal squabbles between Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli Supreme Court. The usually apolitical security services took sides in what is partly a divide between white Ashkenazi and brown/black Mizrahi, with religious orthodoxy thrown in. (It is a stark reminder to Indians, especially the INDI alliance, that a house divided will fall.)

Yes, it is hard to believe the combined might of the Anglosphere did not anticipate the Hamas invasion catastrophe. Maybe they did not want to prevent it? That would be criminal, considering the sufferings of Israeli civilians, as well as what’s to come for Palestinian civilians when Israel, as it always does, hits back hard in Gaza. 

A Jewish writer in Tablet Magazine, Liel Leibowitz, accused the Israeli ruling class of “cosplaying some game of Demokratia, complete with donning handmaid outfits and ululating about fascism”, and of entertaining “the fantasy that the United States was and always would be their protector—when in fact the ruling party in America has decided that Israel is a liability”. The same magazine, in March, accused the US Deep State of instigating Israel’s internal squabbles. 

That is harsh, but in a nutshell it suggests that America in particular, and the West in general, is no longer able to, or willing to, run the ‘rules-based liberal international order’. Thus, the end of Pax Americana or Pax Occidentalis may be here. This does not make the world a nicer or easier place: Pax Sinica, for instance, could be brutal (ask the Tibetans). But it suggests that a Pax Indica in the Indian Ocean Rim is a worthwhile goal for India. 

1200 words, 10 Oct 2023

A version of this essay was published by firstpost.com at https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/shadow-warrior-g20-and-its-fallout-india-the-swing-state-imec-and-trudeaus-tantrums-13162212.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

A fortnight after the end of the G20 Summit in New Delhi, it’s worth revisiting what really materialized, and what India can expect out of all the hard work that went into it.

First, the positives. The flawless execution of the Summit is something the Indian leadership and  officials deserve to be congratulated on. There were all sorts of things that could have gone wrong – including security worries – but the whole thing was done with clockwork precision. In a way, this is unsurprising: Indians revel in complexity, and surely running this event, despite the VVIP foreigners, was easier than pulling off the Kumbha Mela. 

Many pundits had written off the Summit, citing the absence of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, and predicting that it would be next to impossible for there to be a consensus based on which a common declaration could be accepted by all. In the event, the 83-paragraph Leaders’ Declaration, wide-ranging and comprehensive, was seen as a diplomatic triumph, with everybody giving in a little on their positions in the interest of the G20 community.

The fact that NATO members had to swallow a watered-down condemnation of the Ukraine war, without actually naming Russia, has been framed as a ‘climbdown by the West for the sake of G20 unity’ by the Financial Times. That’s pretty good spin, but it was remarkable that they didn’t seem to be bothered by such ‘G20 unity’ at the Bali Summit, 2022. 

There are more plausible reasons for this ‘climbdown’. One is that the Ukraine war is not going according to plan, which anticipated Russia being beaten by now, both militarily and financially. On the contrary, the EU continues to be Russia’s biggest customer, by far. So the sanctions have failed, and the EU is probably fed up with energy shortages. Plus, the Ukrainians don’t seem to be making much progress with the much-hyped ‘counteroffensive’. NATO could well be on the point of throwing Zelenskyy under the bus any day now. 

The West appears to be backpedaling furiously, and they have made such miscalculations before: 1971, Bangladesh; 1975, Vietnam, and so on. Ironically, POTUS Biden went to Vietnam after the G20 Summit, and announced billions of dollars worth of deals in semiconductors and AI, among other things. What a U-turn from the 1970s! Kissinger would be turning over in his grave, except he’s still alive.

A more optimistic reading of the G20 outcome could well be that India has finally become a swing state. While it is precarious being a swing state, it also has benefits: you get courted by both sides, and you can play them off against each other. India’s persistent and aggressive fence-sitting, combined with its robust economic performance, is now making others pay a little more attention to India’s needs. But it also invites hostility.

There was evidence of this new reality, in a back-handed sort of way, in Canadian PM Justin Trudeau’s hissy-fit against India accusing it of a hit-job on a Khalistani terrorist. Trudeau has his own reasons (hurt amour-propre, perhaps), but the Washington Post reported that nobody else in the Anglosphere agreed to support him, with Biden going to great lengths “to avoid antagonizing India and court the Asian power as a strategic counterweight to China”. Even the usually hostile BBC said, “On the grand geopolitical chess board, India is now a key player”. Deep State is not amused. Nor are the rest of the Five Eyes.

India’s transition from ‘non-aligned’ to ‘multi-aligned’ has come at the right time. I do hope India does not get swayed by its own rhetoric of being the ‘champion of the Global South’ and go back to the Nehru-era ‘king of the banana republics’ self-image. Pretending to be the leader of the Third World, and all the NAM exertions got India nothing at all. In 1961, the entire Third World voted 90-1 against India’s decolonization of Goa, which was startling. 

However, things are a little different now that India is looking out for its own interests first and foremost. In that context, the formal induction of the African Union into the G20 is a win for India, especially in light of the stacking of BRICS+ with friends of China. 

Looking at it from India’s point of view, the African Union means especially East Africa, which is part of the Indian Ocean Rim, India’s backyard. Africa will be the fastest-growing area, in population and GDP, over the next few decades, and the giant continent’s people face problems quite similar to those Indians face. East Africa has millennia-old trade links with India. For instance, a 1500 year old Malabar-built uru, a wooden ship made of teak, was found buried, well preserved in the sands near Alexandria, Egypt, indicating ancient commerce.

It is in the context that the new Spice Route, or the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), is also a good initiative. For one, it is fairly direct competition to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has been dogged by accusations that it is ‘debt-trap diplomacy’ that ends up with valuable assets extorted from others, as in Hambantota port in Sri Lanka, now forced into a 99-year lease agreement as the debt payments became onerous. 

Having said that, and despite the fact that a growing India will have more trade with Europe as in the millennia past, it is not entirely clear that the IMEC will take off. On the one hand, there is the history of prized Indian goods like spices, gold, gems, etc. The Roman Pliny the Younger complained that their treasury was being emptied because of the demand for spices and in satisfying “the vanity of [our] women” with cosmetics etc. from India. 

India of the future may not become, or may not be allowed to become, a workshop of the world at the scale of China. After all, China will not go off into that good night without raging, raging. An article by Martin Wolf in the Financial Times pointed out that ‘peak China’ may be some time off. I usually disagree with the man, but here I agree: China’s obituaries are a bit premature. It will also double down on a new and improved BRI.

Going back to IMEC, there are also practical difficulties even if the political will and funding can be arranged: the port of Haifa, Israel, which would be a logical choice for it, has a major terminal where China is the concessionaire, and so does the Greek Port of Piraeus. Interestingly enough, Adani Ports has control over the older terminal at Haifa, and is reported to be seeking a terminal at Piraeus as well. How curious that Soros keeps attacking Adani again and again: perhaps he is acting on China’s behalf as well?

Chances are that IMEC will remain a pipe-dream, but there is more of a chance that the Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) that India has excelled in may be appealing to many other nations. According to the World Bank, India only took 6 years to achieve development that would normally take 47 years, because of the efficiency improvements due to digitization. This is something the Global South can use. 

There is also a negative from the G20. The upsurge in infiltration and the huge standoff against terrorists in Anantnag, Jammu and Kashmir, may well be a Chinese signal that they can ratchet up mischief any time, and that the G20 success should not go to India’s head. Given that there is a lot of alleged infiltration into and coziness by the Chinese into the Canadian establishment, Trudeau’s tantrums may also be inspired by China: the other shoe dropping. 

All in all, India gets a solid A- for its G20 efforts; the outcomes, alas, may only be a B-.

1300 words, 20 Sept 2023 

On the one hand, there is massive propaganda from the west, ably supported by native sepoys, that India is on the verge of some genocide of Muslims. 

On the other hand, last month, the Speaker of the Kerala Assembly, a Muslim, said that Lord Ganesh was “a myth”. Instead of censuring him for hurting the sentiments of Hindus, the ruling communists of Kerala supported him.

This month, Udayanidhi Stalin, a minister, who is also the son of the DMK Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu M K Stalin, said Sanatana Dharma is like dengue, and needs to be eradicated. A former Union Minister, A Raja, compared Hinduism to HIV. 

Thus there is de facto discrimination and hate speech against Hindus, and Stalin Jr’s call, for all practical purposes, is an invitation to genocide of Hindus. 

Several bigwigs in politics, including the DMK’s allies such as the Congress, instead of censuring Stalin Jr for calling for crimes against humanity, have instead supported him.

Then there is de jure discrimination against Hindus as well. The Constitution through Articles 25-30 appears to give protection to non-Hindus (based on some strange idea that Hindus would oppress them), which has been interpreted by the courts as giving extraordinary privileges to non-Hindus in all sorts of ways. The same is true of governments as well: in fact there are Kerala government job postings reserved exclusively for converts to Christianity, not to mention the pilgrimage concessions given to Muslims and Christians, but not to Hindus. 

The Supreme Court, on its own accord, forcefully chided Nupur Sharma merely for quoting correctly a verse from an Islamic source, and claimed she was causing fissures in society. But the Supreme Court has not bothered with any suo moto comments on Stalin Jr or A Raja. 

This is apartheid, a classic oppression of majority populations to benefit minorities. 

Anand Ranganathan’s recent book goes into detail in this, and I am sure it is worth a read. An apartheid state is unsustainable and needs to be reformed. 

The fact of the matter is that there are several religions intent on world conquest, Christianity, Islam and their modern-day variants Communism and Wokeism. All of them view Hindus as targets and as sacrificial lambs for their glory.

Unfortunately, this is not even new. Here’s a letter to the editor published in the Hindu newspaper, apparently in the 1940s.

* It’s illegal. There is a constitutional right to worship. Even more so there is a right to equality to all citizens. 

* It’s immoral and criminal. To call for genocide. This is not free speech. This is hate speech

* This is pure propaganda

* Demonizing the enemy has a long history

* Spaniards called aztecs cannibals and vice versa, but white people got to write the history books

* Yellow peril

* Nazis called jews vermin

* Hutus in rwanda called tutsis cockroaches, and then genocide them

* N s rajarams’s comment on how caldwell, naicker etc were attempting the same in tamil nadu

* History of the justice party, dmk etc is shameful: basically arms of conversion, not anti-religion, only anti-hindu

* Anti-hindu memes in the west: california bill, equality labs, audrey truschke, against vivek ramaswamy

* Progressively from hindutva to hinduism to sanatana dharma. escalation

* INDIAlliance has shown itself to be purely anti-hindu

* But questions for BJP too: why are hindu temples still managed by the state? Anand ranganathan maintains that hindus are not even second-class, they are eighth class, with far fewer rights than others. 

A version of this essay was published by news18.com at https://www.news18.com/opinion/opinion-what-a-difference-ten-years-make-india-since-2014-8559632.html

I wrote ten years ago on Rediff.com (‘The great Indian rope trick and other illusions of progress’ https://www.rediff.com/news/column/the-great-indian-rope-trick-and-other-illusions-of-progress/20130716.htm) about how the average Indian is satisfied with illusion, never mind real progress. That made India a Potemkin State, where form is everything and substance is immaterial. 

It turns out that I was wrong: Indians do want actual progress. I might be pardoned for saying what I said then because the country was at the fag-end of the Lost Decade, 2004 to 2013, wherein things deteriorated steadily. Decline had been par for the course throughout the Nehruvian-Stalinist decades of dirigisme. Conversely, there has been noticeable change in 2014-2023.

Apart from mis-steps in economic management, the political environment was also dicey. There was the appalling spectacle of a constitutional coup, as I noted at the time (‘Four ways the Congress won power by Constitutional coups’ https://www.rediff.com/news/column/column-rajeev-srinivasan-4-ways-the-congress-won-power-through-constitutional-coups/20140107.htm): by colluding with the Communist Speaker in the cash-for-votes scam, the Congress clung on to power violating democratic norms. 

We see the same recklessness today in the US (“Let’s jail the leading opposition candidate”) and in Germany (“One party is getting too popular, let’s ban it”). It does not bode well. The New York Times, on August 21, 2023 ran the striking headline, “Elections Are Bad for Democracy” before changing it to “The Worst People Run for Office. It’s Time for a Better Way”. Yes, democracy is too important to leave to the people. Let us elites tell them what to think. 

The most striking example of this uncaring State, the very nadir of its contempt for the man in the street, was the length of the chain anchoring the mug in the loo in railway compartments: just three inches too short, thus shattering the illusion that you could actually clean your bottom.  A daunting prospect for any traveler, especially because of the overwhelming stink, and a world of difference from Japan’s shinkansen and their amazing high-tech loos.

Recently I traveled in several train compartments, including ancient Jan Shatabdi chair cars and newish Hamsafar sleeper coaches, although, alas, not in Vande Bharat coaches yet; but I was surprised at how much better the toilets were. The ‘bio toilet’ means human feces are not dumped on the tracks; they do not smell terrible, and, wonder of wonders, there is a hygiene hose/bidet that is actually long enough to do the deed.

And, perhaps redundantly, the chain for the mug has been lengthened. And there is water! 

It is hard to explain to a non-Indian what a difference all this makes. I had a cousin who denied herself food and drink while traveling by train just so she could avoid the toilet. It is a sea-change when you are granted a little self-respect. I am reminded of the placard held by a man at a Martin Luther King rally: “I am a man”. Yes, the proverbial average Indian aam admi is a human who deserves consideration: not only Lutyens and Khan Market types.

I am sorry to talk about a cringe-making topic like toilets, but this is something earthy and immediately understandable; it makes the point that India is, 76 years after the imperialists left and brown sahebs took over, finally on the march. Indians are beginning to see that they can demand respect from their rulers, and get it. Dignity, that watchword of the butler Stevens in Kazuo Ishiguro’s brilliant The Remains of the Day.

In a penetrating 1997 essay, “India shouldn’t have fantasies about the past, but face it” (https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/from-the-archives-1997-v-s-naipaul-india-shouldn-t-have-fantasies-about-the-past-but-face-it-1988599-2022-08-16) Sir V S Naipaul mentioned that those who have been oppressed and denigrated for centuries are now rising, and this rise will be messy. He was talking about those outside the charmed circle that ruled the country for long. It is also broader: the rise of the Other Backward Communities, that uncharming name for the majority of Indians, the bahujan. 

Naipaul also said that the rulers will now of necessity be of the people, not overlords. It can be argued that for over a thousand years, Indians have been effectively ruled by a comprador ‘elite’, middlemen who did the dirty work on behalf of invaders or distant rulers. It is my suspicion that the zamindars and other local strongmen were largely from the upper or middle jatis, and it is only now that those from the bottom of the pyramid are finally getting a say in things. 

No, this is not a jati-bashing exercise, and I may be extrapolating from my observations in Kerala, where a middle jati, Nairs, were the kulaks who lorded it over those below them in the hierarchy, such as OBC Ezhavas, SC Pulayas, and ST Mala-arayans. The latter are now rising, though not in full measure, yet. I think it’s similar in Tamil Nadu, too. 

In the Soviet Union, Stalin liquidated the kulaks. In India, their eclipse has come about too late, though without violence. The usual woke Lutyens/Khan Market suspects were disappointed they couldn’t chortle about Chandrayaan-3 being yet another expensive failure a poor country could ill afford, echoing Brits upset that their alleged ‘aid’ was going to India (in reality, as per the UK Foreign Office, India politely declined any charity from them starting 2015; any money coming to India from the UK is foreign direct investment (FDI), or strictly in support of their geopolitical objectives, channeled via dubious NGOs or missionaries).

The ‘wokes’ also grumbled about ISRO engineers going to Tirupati and invoking the blessings of the Divine for their project. I am glad they got a munh thod jawab. There really is no dichotomy in Hindu thought between science and faith: science too requires faith and belief.

The ‘wokes’ have reason to be worried, not only by the picture-perfect moon landing, but also by Praggnaanandhaa, who almost unseated the reigning World Champion in chess; Neeraj Chopra, who won the World Athletic Championship in javelin to go with his Olympic gold; the 4x400 relay quartet with their heroics of almost defeating the Americans in the heats while setting an Asian record; and Vivek Ramaswamy, who is unabashedly Hindu and at the same time a patriotic American and a force to contend with in the Republican party in the US.

Even though they haven’t been defenestrated, except perhaps some unfortunate folks at Ashoka University, India’s Left are less and less relevant: relics of a failed ideology. They should count their lucky stars: in Singapore, Lee Kwan Yew liquidated them. And indeed, even in the US, the ‘woke’ capital of the world, their star is setting. 

There is another reason I brought up toilets: the unseemly obsession that westerners have with them. I was delighted to see this cartoon on Twitter, and it is obviously a parody of the earlier one in the sadly overrated New York Times, below.

While the racist derision of the original cartoon, and the celebration of the be-jasmined and be-bindi’d women in Indian engineering are the obvious takeaways, I was intrigued by a detail: the white guy in the cartoon is dragging a shopping-cart full of toilet paper behind him! I am not sure why toilet paper is some kind of atavistic guilty pleasure for westerners. 

Despite being purely climate-related (they could not afford to melt ice and snow just to wash their bottoms, or for that matter their hands, thus cutlery), toilet paper has become a cultural staple for them. You might remember the hoarding of toilet paper in the early days of covid! It’s time westerners abandoned killing trees, and went for the more healthy bidet-like health faucet. For that matter, the squat in Indian closets is apparently better than the sitting posture on a western ‘thunder-box’. Recently while traveling in the Czech Republic, I stayed in a (fancy) hotel that had a bidet: such a relief! May their tribe increase!

Of course, some things never change. This was demonstrated in two ways: the thinly-veiled envy from the British that manifested itself in their assertion that an India full of open defecation shouldn’t be spending on space research, and The Economist magazine in their recent obituary of Bindeswar Pathak repeatedly emphasizing caste discrimination and manual scavenging. These are vestiges of the past, and mostly due to the $10 trillion (or $45 trillion depending on whom you ask) that the Brits looted, impoverishing India. But then, who’s counting?

Oh, you want to talk about open defecation? Once-beautiful San Francisco is now the champion, while India has built large numbers of indoor toilets all over the country. See the ‘poop map’ of San Francisco here (https://mochimachine.org/wasteland/# ).

One thing that has definitely changed in the last ten years is the amount of Hindu-hatred expressed in the West, particularly America. The California caste Bill, Equality Labs, Audrey Truschke, and the latest, tech journo Kara Swisher’s racist attack on Vivek Ramaswamy, are all related to the fact that Hindus have quietly become one of the most economically successful (but politically powerless) groups in the US. It is really a back-handed compliment, happily cheered on by rogues from the “Chindu” stable or similar. Caste is the weapon.

Hindus tend to be defensive about caste. We shouldn’t be. Caste is really a white invention, from the Portuguese casta, intended to segregate mixed-race people based on how white they are, half, quarter, one-eighth, etc: thus mulatto, quadroon, octroon, etc. It is their cross to bear. There is an ocean of difference between this caste business and jatis, but I digress..

Besides, there are de facto castes in the US: the investment banker caste, the doctor caste, the lawyer caste, the management consultant caste, etc. They all go to the same tony prep schools, the same Ivy League colleges (legacy admissions mean you easily get into Harvard, if your parent(s) went to Harvard, regardless of your grades. Raj Chetty has published reams of data about this); they are endogamous; and they all miraculously end up at Goldman Sachs or McKinsey. An outsider can’t break in. These castes are also Lindy (ask Nassim Taleb).

Perhaps, taking a cue from other groups that have prospered, Hindus (and Indian Americans in general) are becoming ‘white’, like others have before them. Irish, Italians, Jews, Japanese, Koreans, Chinese: there is a long list. ‘Whiteness’ is a construct. I was flabbergasted decades ago when a well-meaning white guy said, “You guys are almost white”. I stuttered: “But, but… we are brown!”. 

If you have money, you pretty much become white. I give it another ten years. With India’s GDP at $10 trillion, and more Hindu-Americans creating unicorns, I bet by 2034 Hindus will be ‘white’. Maybe Vivek is the first white Hindu. I am not making a value judgment, merely making a prediction. You heard it here first.

1800 words, Aug 29, 2023, updated Sep 10, 2023

Here’s the video:

A version of this essay was published by firstpost.com at https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/shadow-warrior-paris-is-burning-why-12837712.html

I had the disconcerting experience of being on the ground in Paris while the current riots raged. Oddly enough, on my previous visit, in April 2019, I arrived the night the Notre Dame cathedral caught fire, and then was in town during the Yellow Vest riots against fuel taxes. In both cases, my plans were affected: in the current case I stirred out of my hotel room near the Arc de Triomphe with trepidation, worried as I was by TV images of random violence and especially arson.

I had been to Paris for several years in a row (until covid) for an annual conference on innovation, so I have a slight familiarity with the city, and it remains one of the most charming cities in the world. Architecturally appealing, with world-class museums (I did my usual homage to the Louvre, the impressionist Musee d’Orsay and the Musee Guimet of Asian art), lovely boulevards, the peerless Eiffel Tower, the unhurried meals in sidewalk cafes: the very picture of the good life.

Then there is the dark side of things.

The proximate cause of the troubles was the shooting death of a 17 year old youth of Algerian heritage, possibly the result of excessive force by the police. But this is just the spark. As in other countries with restless minority populations (e.g. the US with periodic riots after police shoot yet another black man, as in Los Angeles burning after the death of Rodney King), there are many other resentments that fan the fire. It would be easy to surmise that racism and the reaction thereto are the main factors in action.

But I think there is another, possibly preponderant cause: demographic shift. France is getting less white, more black and Arab, and more Muslim. Coupled with an ever-restive leftist streak that has been evident for long (remember the student riots in May 1968 and the always volatile Left Bank?), today we have a left-migrant nexus of sorts that magnifies any issue and takes to the streets.

There are large numbers of migrants, including those who came from the colonies and more recently refugees fleeing terror and chaos in Syria, Afghanistan etc. One would think that they would generally be grateful to Europe for taking them in, but radicalization is literally visible on the streets: the older generation is more secular, but their sons and especially their daughters-in-law are more observant, with beards, hijabs and other signs of religiosity. They are influenced by fiery preachers who call for jihad.

It is now much easier to marshal ‘flashmobs’ via social media. In fact, France has just had to turn off the Internet to prevent further provocation and nastiness. Let us note that this was not trumpeted by Deep State journalists as a sign of autocracy, although that is exactly what they say when India has to turn off the Internet in Kashmir.

There were statements made by some of the rioters (I’m not sure if it is just bravado or whether they seriously mean it) that they intend to take over Europe through the power of their numbers, as they are noticeably more fertile than native whites. Eurabia is an inevitable reality, they believe. This, naturally, does not sit well with the locals. They will probably begin to curtail migration, as some Scandinavian countries have begun to do.

Perhaps there is also a crisis in governance, which was the opinion of an old friend, whom I met for drinks at the landmark Publicis Drugstore on the Champs Elysees. She was unhappy about the mayor and other politicians whom she blamed for the poor state of general administration. (I just read that a suburban mayor’s home was attacked, and his wife injured). Although my friend didn’t talk about him, Emmanuel Macron is not universally popular either; even senior citizens appear to be upset with him.

She also mentioned that the covid lockdowns had had a hugely disruptive, and lingering, effect, as many people lost their jobs, many moved out of Paris, and have had their prospects diminished. France’s place in the world is also diminishing: it is now mostly a purveyor of luxury goods (fittingly, the head of LVMH is now the richest person in the world), and it was roundly humiliated by the US in the AUKUS affair, even though it is still a major arms supplier.

Maybe there is a certain angst in the air. Maybe that is the root cause, or at least a root cause.

I met a Pondicherry-origin man working in the transit hotel near the airport where I spent my last night in Paris, not wanting to risk riots, arson and barricades on the way from the city to Charles de Gaulle. He was generally negative, warning me about crime ranging from pickpocketing to muggings and especially the riots. He felt that his life as an immigrant (he has been there for many years) has become worse, and he felt he could be targeted by both Arabs and whites based on his Indian looks and the certainty that he was harmless and would not retaliate.

I only personally witnessed a boisterous crowd shouting slogans that I couldn’t understand, and no violence or arson (thankfully), but there was the constant wail of police sirens in the background, and what sounded like shots in the middle distance. Sadly, the largest library in France was set on fire. Thousands of vehicles were destroyed, and hundreds of houses looted and burned. In the end, I am told residents responded with vigilante squads fending off the unruly mobs.

I also spoke to the proverbial taxi driver (a Moroccan-Frenchman), following in the footsteps of famous economists and journalists. He tried to be circumspect, and he didn’t seem to be a religious person (there were no accoutrements in his car), but he told me about hard times. He was running an illegal taxi service, and he overcharged me 10 Euros since (he claimed) he didn’t have enough change.

He spoke about unemployment and discrimination, and how inflation was hurting his living standards. I have in the past found French Arabs not very hostile to Indians (as we don’t threaten their livelihoods), and this man wasn’t either.

The same issue of economic problems was echoed by a Malayali manning a souvenir shop. He had arrived as a student, stayed on for a few years, and now was facing problems in bringing his family over from India. Incidentally, a lot of the souvenir stalls near Sacre Coeur, the Louvre and elsewhere are staffed or owned by Indian-origin people: I met one from Gujarat, another from Mauritius.

The number of Indians I saw around Paris has gone up from prior visits: both tourists and residents. There still are far more East Asians (in my hotel there were Koreans and Singaporeans) around. I met a young woman from Kanyakumari who was leading a tour group on the Eiffel Tower. She was optimistic: she was doing her MBA, working part-time, and she has an import-export startup in India that she will be returning to.

My chance encounters with these people illustrate the point about European decline. France has a nice little niche in luxury goods, but I suspect their buyers are increasingly from newly-affluent Asia. The departure area at CDG airport Terminal 1 is a veritable secular cathedral, with chandeliers and luxurious seats, surrounded by glitzy and expensive Dior, Chanel, Louis Vuitton, Hermes, Cartier, etc. shops tempting the departing traveler.

But decline in the former colonial powers (most evident in Britain, which also shot itself in the foot with Brexit) is a fact. In a way it is poetic justice: Paris is full of evident loot from elsewhere (the Egyptian obelisk from Luxor, the Cambodian sculptures from the Bayon and Angkor Wat) and France clearly was enriched by exploitation of the colonies.

But their core industrial strength has vanished (China continues to rape and pillage their IPR), along with their position in the global GDP standings. India has overtaken France and Britain, and will soon overtake Germany. Europe is now less of a factor in the world than it has been since the Middle Ages. Asia is rising again.

It’s a powerful cocktail: inevitable cyclical decline, memories of imperial grandeur, the determined Islamist assault, and general anti-government feelings going way back to the French Revolution. Surely, the crackdown by some 50,000 police and if necessary, the army, will control the riots, but one day the rioters may win. Predictably, all of Europe is now shifting right-wards: Italy, Finland, Greece, possibly Spain. Hard times beget hard men.

1450 words, Jul 3, 2023

A version of this essay was published by firstpost.com at https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/shadow-warrior-permanent-interests-not-permanent-friends-drive-foreign-policy-12814872.html

The optics for PM Narendra Modi’s visit to the US were good. There was a surprisingly positive reception to his speech to the joint houses of the US Parliament (known as the US Congress, not to be confused with the Indian political party with its congenital allergy to Modi). I read that the PM gave a bravura performance, and that he was interrupted by several standing ovations.

The rest of the trip also got generally good reviews. It would be wonderful if my two favorite nations were to become good friends. I lived most of my youth in the US, and I love the country. By ancestry and culture, of course my roots are Indian.

But any such rapport will not come about if the usual suspects can help it. I was not really surprised by the news that former President Barak Obama was scathing about India and Modi. I have not been a fan of Obama’s from day one: something about him made my antennae go up. And then I heard that he had gone to Pakistan in his youth, at a stage in life when most young Americans go to India to find themselves. I guess Obama had already found himself.

Then there was Fareed Zakaria who echoed the libel that India was massacring Muslims. He knows well enough that this is not true. If anything, Indian Muslims are more privileged than others. And Zakaria and his father are among the most privileged, a super-elite caste of “Anglo-Mughalais” (my friend Bapa Rao’s evocative term) who take advantage of everything India has to offer, in the name of the poorer castes of Muslims whom they find it convenient to keep poor and angry.

And then there was Sabrina Siddiqui, a Pakistani-American journalist who is part of the Biden administration, whose provocative question to the PM raised hackles.

The meme that is quietly being propagated by all of them is that India is on the verge of genocide of its Muslim residents. This is simply not true: just as they are currently doing in France, Muslims riot at the drop of a hat in India. This is hardly a dara hua population. Obama’s direct hint about a Partition 2.0 is a good summary of the standard Deep State perspective on India: keep it down, poor, and preferably broken: Hindus are not allowed to rise.

Less sinister was some guy in Foreign Affairs opining that the US and India do not share ‘values’ but only ‘interests’. Maybe, but that should not stop them from becoming friends. That is realpolitik: the enlightened pursuit of self-interest. Nations, in a Chanakyan way, can and should pursue their own long-term and short-term interests. I once invoked Chanakya’s ‘Far Emperor’: you cultivate the distant emperor to wage war against the neighbor, who, sadly, will sooner or later become your foe. That’s a good model for India. A benign US can be the Far Emperor when the nearby power threatens.

As for the US, with a rampaging China threatening to overturn the entire US-dominated international order, it is good to have friends who can keep China occupied in its neighborhood: to put it crudely, India is the only country to have recently killed Chinese troops, and stared them down in a tense stand-off.

And values. I have to believe that the guiding values of the US are “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness”. So far as I can tell, this is exactly what India is attempting to do for its citizens and this is precisely what the much-maligned (by the US Deep State) Modi is trying to do. How much more congruent can your values get?

But I must acknowledge that there is a definite gulf between Abrahamic values and Dharmic values.

The ‘religions of the desert’, that is, Abrahamisms including the Christian, Islamic and Communist faiths, have as a central tenet world conquest. I classify Abrahamisms as follows:

* Paleo-semitic: Zoroastrianism, Judaism

* Meso-semitic: Christianity, Islam

* Neo-semitic: Communism, Fascism, Nehruism, Ambedkarism, Dravidianism, and so on

The common thread is that these are prone to promote competition and zero-sum games. This is a consequence of the fact that the Middle East, where these ideologies germinated (though they have obviously managed to capture much territory elsewhere) is mostly a fearsome desert. If you do not follow a few simple rules (‘Commandments’) you will perish: for instance, “carry water”, “cover yourself up against the sun and sand”, “kill or be killed”, “your life here and now may suck, but there’s a heaven after you die and if you want to get there, do the following”.

The Dharmic worldview, being that of the ‘religions of the forest’, is fundamentally different. This is because the Asian forest, while it can be dangerous, is benign. There are fruits to forage for, and water to drink. Your basic survival is not in such jeopardy, and so you can afford to be a little flexible. Of course there are rules like “look out for snakes”, and “climb a tree to escape predators”, but basically life is easier, and so you develop an attitude of “live and let live”.

I have recently been traveling in Europe, and spent some time in the Louvre Museum. The items on display there are a graphic reminder of these differences: the galleries showing Greek, Roman, Persian and Mediterranean art (pre-Abrahamic) are radically different from medieval (Abrahamic) art from later times. Yes, there is a difference ever since meso-Semitism became the European standard.

The biologist Richard Dawkins is a good example of the fact that Abrahamic values are the norm for anyone in the West, even if they reject Abrahamic religions, and claim to be atheists, although one could easily argue that atheism is yet another Abrahamism. He has admitted to being culturally Abrahamic, and he is both ignorant and arrogant regarding Dharmic systems: he doesn’t understand them, and fits them into a Procrustean Abrahamic mold. The same is true of Noam Chomsky.

I do believe that the US and India do not and couldn’t possibly share all their values: so that is a futile argument at best. Yet they can and do share interests, mostly the containment of China. Values at a grassroots level are not all that different in practice. Individual Americans are among the nicest, friendliest, most gregarious and decent people anywhere. And so are Indians.

It is possible to write reams about Chinese strategic brilliance and Sun Tzu and all that, but the fact remains that while it has thrived under centralized imperial rule, it has also regularly faced catastrophic collapse and periods of chaos. But there is no gainsaying the fact that for the last thirty years or so, China has outplayed the US, to the extent that the CEO of a big defense company (Raytheon if I remember right) says it is impossible to decouple from thousands of Chinese suppliers.

When I first went to the US, in the late 1970s, things generally looked good there, even though there was a period of high inflation. The Cold War came to an end soon thereafter (The Soviets were outmaneuvered) and Francis Fukuyama’s The End of History seemed possible: Western (that is, a special form of Abrahamic) values had won. Period.

Hubris is usually followed by Nemesis. The needs of the war industry took center stage, and money that could and should have been spent on the welfare of Americans was lavished on strange ‘projects’ everywhere, such as Iraq, and much later, Afghanistan. The latter was justifiable based on 9/11, but the way it was conducted and (in particular) terminated was atrocious. And now, Ukraine.

Meanwhile, China has deeply infiltrated the US through its agents; its unwitting fifth columnists now include Wall Street bankers and captains of industry. Then there are these suspicious little joint ventures, for instance, it now looks increasingly possible that the Covid virus was dreamt up by some billionaires, and executed as a biowarfare project by senior US government officials. It just got a little out of hand. 10-20 million dead, mostly in mRNA-vaccinated rich countries. Oops.

So there are many players in the US (and I am not going to get into the godawful wokeness issue or the dubious and dangerous anti-democratic games going on) who are interested in, or paid to, create a narrative that puts India down and keeps it down. This includes the Indian-origin activists and journalists who are astroturfed with ISI money and Chinese money, and when they attack Modi, it is perfectly clear that the target is really India and Hindus.

Given the power of these lobbies, the US will get close to India if and only if it has no other choice. Someone writing in the WSJ asked if the US needs India. My belief is that there is mutual benefit. India is no longer the country that some Americans remember: waiting for PL-480 grain to avoid mass starvation. Economics matters, and matters greatly. As and when India becomes a major consumer of all sorts of goods and services for its domestic market, the US will benefit.

Is India there yet? No. Can it get there? Yes, if all goes well. But things can easily go south. There are dangerous elements in India with their rent-a-riot crowds and their ‘500 rupees and biriyani for your vote’. The painful and hard-won infrastructure improvement and quality of life improvement can disappear virtually overnight.

India’s interests include American help in continuing to grow, and this may be in the form of funding and R&D, although quite frankly this could just as well come from Japan. It includes a modus vivendi with China, which is the original intent of the Quad as visualized by that visionary statesman Abe Shinzo: an armed truce, as it were. Red lines. Guardrails. And it wants the ‘rules-based, liberal, international order’ to be amended to include 1.4 billion Indians.

None of this sounds unreasonable. The question is, how much of this coincides with America’s interests. Values are nice, and yes, it would be good if they coincide. But if not, common interests are perfectly good bases for co-existence.

1200 words, 23 June 2023, 1700 words updated 1 July 1, 2023

A version of this essay has been published by firstpost.com at https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/shadow-warrior-mr-modi-goes-to-washington-deja-vu-all-over-again-12750892.html

Considering that India and the US are my two favorite countries, it is odd that I get nervous whenever there is a summit between the two. I am reminded inevitably of the Frank Capra film “Mr Smith goes to Washington” (1939), where James Stewart plays Mr Smith, a naive idealist, who goes to the corrupt company town Washington DC and is bullied and humiliated. In the end (this being fiction) Mr Smith wins a famous victory for democracy and the power of the people.

In real life, things are different. Mr Modi is not naive, and he is a pragmatist (though there is a wee bit of an idealist in him), and he is quite aware of the Deep State and its regime-change agendas (e.g. they just did one in Brazil, defenestrating Bolsonaro, although it didn’t quite work with Hungary’s Orban). Besides, I am sure that the PM remembers the same Democrats giving him the dubious distinction of being the only person ever denied a visa on the grounds of “severe violation of religious freedom”, purportedly for the Gujarat riots in 2002. Yes, along the same lines as the absurd USCIRF.

When Democrats are in power, things simply don’t seem to go well for Indo-US relations. There are many reasons: one is that Democrats on average seem to prefer autocrats and uniformed caudillos because hey, they get things done; another is that many are Atlanticists, and quite a few are of Eastern European origin (eg Brzezinski, Albright, Nuland, Blinken) with scant regard for Indo-Pacific issues; a third is that they tend to be woke (trans-gender bathrooms, yeah!). 

The Clinton Administration and especially the Obama Administration were unpleasant to India, in keeping with the above tendencies Democrats exhibit. Manmohan Singh was, with much hoopla, given the “first state dinner” by Obama, which so far as I can tell meant nothing whatsoever. It was an empty gesture. 

In fact, I have been underwhelmed by various US shows of bonhomie. I panned the Obama state visit in 2010. To be honest, I have not been an admirer of Obama from day one, and the current Biden Administration seems to be, for all practical purposes, Obama 3.0: same ruinous economic and foreign policies, mostly the same tired faces, the same wokeness. 

Even though I am Republican-leaning, I was not all that impressed by Narendra Modi’s interaction with Trump in 2017 either. Certainly, Trump was a lot better than the Democrats, but then I expected Trump to look out, correctly, for US interests, rather than do anything for India, even though Republicans understand the China threat better. 

Earlier, I thought the entire full-court-press and hard-sell on the 2008 ‘nuclear deal’ simply indicated that it was a good deal for the US, and not so good for India. In the event, India’s nuclear power production capacity did not go up dramatically, India became a much bigger buyer of US military hardware, and there were surely (non-public) limitations placed on India’s nuclear weapons programs. 

I guess I suffer from the soft bigotry of low expectations. I think this is a selling job on the part of the Americans, and that ill-prepared Indians will be taken in by flattery. Therefore I continue to be skeptical about the real value of the current tour by Modi to meet Biden, and have a ‘state dinner’ with him. In fact, I do hope Modi will take his own chef with him. Let’s be careful remembering (God forbid) what happened to Lal Bahadur Shastri. 

I get particularly suspicious when The Economist magazine, which is the voice of the Deep State, starts waxing eloquent about something. Apart from the fact that they are generally wrong about all their geopolitical forecasts, being unvarnished imperialists, I am reminded of Kissinger’s dictum: “It is dangerous to be America’s enemy, but fatal to be America’s friend”.

I tried to get Microsoft Bing and DALL-E to get me an AI-generated image of the great mans’ quote, but I was warned sternly that such a query was “against content rules” (whatever they are) and that I would be kicked off the platform! So I am satisfying myself with this Economist cover story, which apparently is a parody of some Netflix show.

Prospects are actually worse for Indo-American rapport today than they have been for years, although it should be the opposite, given rampaging China. The principal reason is Democrat antipathy: for instance Biden’s staff explicitly hurt India in the past with the so-called Biden Amendment that set India’s space program back by 19 years by pressing the Russians to cancel the transfer of cryogenic engines, as seen in the brilliant “Rocketry: the Nambi Effect”.

On top of this, the US has hurt itself in the last few years through disastrous policies, allowing others to gain power in relative terms. So when Modi goes to Washington, it would be appropriate to revisit the old story about the emperor, the vassal king and his court bard, who wrote a new poem extolling the emperor as “the full moon”, and the king as “the new moon”. 

Upon being berated by the king for diminishing him, the bard explained: “The full moon is waning, and the new moon is waxing.” This mollified the king, presumably saving the bard from having his head separated from his body. 

India is on a trajectory to achieve economic (and military) power, but then it may or may not be in the US’s interests to accommodate India. The on-again, off-again US approach to the Quad (eg the AUKUS diversion) signals that the US is not serious about India’s concerns regarding China’s hegemonic ambitions. Not only US politicians, but the steady stream of Wall Street and business honchos making a beeline for China suggests that even for the money folks, despite calls for ‘de-coupling’ or ‘de-risking’, China is very much a factor in their future plans. 

The US has made several strategic, even existential, blunders in the recent past, and again I think the Democrats are mostly to blame:

* The US actively collaborated in the rise of China by allowing it to be a principal manufacturing partner. People such as Henry Kissinger and several POTUSes wittingly or unwittingly helped in a process where China effectively de-industrialized the US. As the realist foreign policy analyst John Mearsheimer suggests, this may be the worst example ever of a major power paving the way for its own eclipse. 

* The unnecessary Ukraine war, with the singular goal of humiliating and possibly balkanizing Russia, has already had disastrous consequences for Western Europe. Russia is a demographically declining power, and it will eventually fade away on its own; wasting enormous amounts of money and effort on ‘punishing’ it is a folly, as was the peremptory, headlong abandonment of Afghanistan to the Taliban. By pushing Russia into China’s dhritharashtra embrace, the Ukraine war is counterproductive strategically.

* The emerging facts about the Covid pandemic suggest that Anthony Fauci and others were working with the Wuhan Institute of Virology on ‘gain-of-function’, in direct contravention of US law. In addition, the poorly handled fiscal and monetary policies in relation to the pandemic have imposed pain, including high inflation, on the US. 

* The awful culture wars and the focus on gender issues, diversity, equity, climate change and other divisive issues have been tearing the US apart since Obama’s time. Objectively speaking, some of these are manufactured issues. In addition, there is clear deterioration in the system, where now we have the unedifying spectacle of an ex-President indicted on mishandling classified documents, and the sitting President is accused of the same, as well as of relatives doing influence peddling. 

None of this is a good look. The US is in trouble. Which it pains me to say, because I think the ideals of the ‘City on a hill’ that animate the spirit of the US Constitution still resonate after all these years. It is hard to think that the US is being overtaken by an authoritarian China. 

Anyway, I think the general idea from the Biden Administration’s point of view is to get India into its orbit as a vassal, just like most of Western Europe, Japan, Australia, etc. The nastiness at the time India stoutly refused to toe the US/NATO line on Ukraine is a signal about this. People like the Portuguese Bruno Macaes and Duleep Singh, the architect of the Russia sanctions, chided India severely; the official US stance was that India somehow betrayed their trust. They couldn’t accept that India has no dog in this very European/Western fight. 

I suspect a big part of the backroom negotiations on the PM’s trip will be to get India to toe the line on Ukraine. There will be various sticks and carrots dangled, such as technology transfers (which is actually an oxymoron, as nobody in their right mind transfers technology; the only way it happens is if you steal it, like China does). Then there is the GE fighter aircraft engine under discussion, and vague talk about quantum computing and other exotic stuff.

There will be more efforts to wean India away from Russian arms imports, and to sell lots of US hardware. There are expensive drones being discussed. An expert told me that if these are Reaper-class Sea Guardians, they may be a good buy, as they can be paired with the submarine hunter-killer surveillance craft, the P8i Poseidon, to help patrol the Indian Ocean.

All in all, the prospects for a mutually beneficial outcome seem bleak. Let us just hope that the Indians don’t come back with a whole lot of lemons, having been bamboozled. Again. 

1473 words, June 15th 2023, updated June 17th

A version of this essay has been published by Open Magazine at https://openthemagazine.com/essays/the-new-knowledge-war/

Generative AI, as exemplified by chatGPT from Microsoft/OpenAI and Bard from Google, is probably the hottest new technology of 2023. Its ability has mesmerised consumers to provide answers to all sorts of questions, as well as to create readable text or poetry and images with universal appeal. 

These generative AI products purport to model the human brain (‘neural networks') and are ‘trained’ on large amounts of text and images from the Internet. Large Language Models or ‘LLMs’ are the technical term for the tools underlying generative AI. They use probabilistic statistical models to predict words in a sequence or generate images based on user input. For most practical purposes, this works fine. However, in an earlier column in Open Magazine, “Artificial Intelligence is like Allopathy”, we pointed out that in both cases, statistical correlation is being treated by users as though it were causation. In other words, just because two things happened together, you can’t assume one caused the other. This flaw can lead to completely wrong or misleading results in some cases: the so-called ‘AI hallucination’. 

To test our hypothesis, we asked chatGPT to summarise that column. It substantially covered most points, but surprisingly, though, it completely ignored the term ‘Ayurveda', although we had used it several times in the text to highlight ‘theory of disease’. This is thought-provoking, because it implies that in the vast corpus of data that chatGPT trained on, there is nothing about Ayurveda.

The erasure of Indic knowledge

Epistemology is the study of knowledge itself: how we acquire it, and the relationship between knowledge and truth. There is a persistent concern that Indic knowledge systems are severely under-represented or mis-represented in epistemology in the Anglosphere. Indian intellectual property is ‘digested’, to use Rajiv Malhotra’s evocative term.

For that matter, India does not receive credit for innovations such as Indian numerals (misnamed Arabic numerals), vaccination (attributed to the British, though there is evidence of prior knowledge among Bengali vaidyas), or the infinite series for mathematical functions such as pi or sine (ascribed to Europeans, though Madhava of Sangamagrama discovered them centuries earlier).

The West (notably, the US) casually captures and repackages it even today. Meditation is rebranded as ‘mindfulness’, and the Huberman Lab at Stanford calls Pranayama ‘cyclic sighing’. A few years ago, the attempts of the US to patent basmati rice and turmeric were foiled by the provision of ‘prior art’, such as the Hortus Malabaricus, written in 1676 about the medicinal plants of the Western Ghats. 

Judging by current trends, Wikipedia, and presumably Google, LinkedIn, and other text repositories, are not only bereft of Indian knowledge, but also full of anti-Indian and specifically anti-Hindu disinformation. Any generative AI relying on this ‘poisoned’ 'knowledge base' will, predictably, produce grossly inaccurate output. 

This has potentially severe consequences: considering that Sanskrit, Hindi, Tamil, Bengali (and non-Latin scripts) etc. are underrepresented on the Internet, generative AI models will not learn or generate text from these languages. For all intents and purposes, Indic knowledge will disappear from the discourse. These issues will exacerbate the bias against non-English speakers, who will not think about their identity or culture, reducing diversity and killing innovation.

More general problems with epistemology: bias, data poisoning and AI hallucinations

Generative AI models are trained on massive datasets of text and code. This means they are susceptible to inherent biases. A case in point: if a dataset is biased against non-white females, then the generative AI model will be more likely to generate text that is also biased against non-white women. Additionally, malicious actors can poison generative AI models by injecting false or misleading data into the training dataset. 

For example, a coordinated effort to introduce anti-India biases into Wikipedia articles (in fact this is the case today) will produce output that is notably biased.  An example of this is a query about Indian democracy to Google Bard: it produced a result that suggested this is a Potemkin construct (i.e., one that is merely a facade); Hindu nationalism and tight control of the media “which has become increasingly partisan and subservient to the government” were highlighted as concerns. This is straight from ‘toolkits', which have poisoned the dataset and are helped, in part, by US hegemonic economic dominance. 

More subtly, generative AI models are biased towards Western norms and values (or have a US-centric point of view). For example, the Body Mass Index (BMI), a measure of body fat, has been used in Western countries to determine obesity, but is a poor measure for the Indian population, as we tend to have a higher percentage of body fat than our Western counterparts. 

An illustration of AI hallucination came to the fore from an India Today story entitled "Lawyer faces problems after using ChatGPT for research. AI tool comes up with fake cases that never existed." It reported how a lawyer who used ChatGPT-generated precedents had his case dismissed because the court found the references were fabricated by AI. Similar risks in the medical field for patient treatment will be exacerbated if algorithms are trained on non-curated datasets. 

While these technologies promise access to communication, language itself becomes a barrier. For instance, due to the dominant prevalence of English literature, a multilingual model might link the word dove with peace, but the Basque word for dove (‘uso’) is used as a slur. Many researchers have encountered the limitations of these LLMs, for other languages like Spanish or Japanese. ChatGPT struggles to mix languages fluently in the same utterance, such as English and Tamil, despite claims of 'superhuman' performance. 

The death of Intellectual Property Rights

Intellectual property rights are a common concern. Already, generative AIs can produce exact copies (tone and tenor) of creative works by certain authors (for example, J K Rowling's Harry Potter series). This is also true of works of art. Two things are happening in the background: any copyright inherent in these works has been lost, and creators will cease to create original works for lack of incentives (at least according to current intellectual property theory). 

A recent Japanese decision to ignore copyrights in datasets used for AI training (from the blog technomancers.ai, “Japan Goes All In: Copyright Doesn't Apply to AI Training”) is surprisingly bold for that nation, which moves cautiously by consensus. The new Japanese law allows AI to use any data “regardless of whether it is for non-profit or commercial purposes, whether it is an act other than reproduction, or whether it is content obtained from illegal sites or otherwise.” Other governments will probably follow suit. This is a land-grab or a gold rush: India cannot afford to sit on the sidelines.

India has dithered on a strict Data Protection Bill, which would mandate Indian data to be held locally; indirectly, it would stem the cavalier capture and use of Indian copyright. The Implications are chilling; in the absence of economic incentives, nobody will bother to create new works of fiction, poetry, non-fiction, music, film, or art. New fiction and art produced by generative AI will be Big Brother-like. All that we would be left with as a civilisation will be increasingly perfect copies of extant works: Perfect but soulless. The end of creativity may mean the end of human civilisation.

With AIs doing ‘creation’, will people even bother? Maybe individual acts of creation, but then they still need the distribution channels so that they reach the public. In the past in India, kings or temples supported creative geniuses while they laboured over their manuscripts, and perhaps this will be the solution: State sponsorship for creators.

Indian Large Language Models: too few yet, while others are moving ahead

Diverse datasets will reduce bias and ensure equitable Indic representation to address the concerns about generative AI. Another way is to use more rigorous training methods to reduce the risk of data poisoning and AI hallucinations.

Progressive policy formulations, without hampering technological developments, are needed for safe and responsible use to govern the use of LLM's across disciplines, while addressing issues of copyright infringement and epistemological biases. Of course, there is the question of creating ‘guardrails': some experts call for a moratorium, or strict controls, on the growth of generative AI systems. 

We must be alive to its geopolitical connotations, as well. The Chinese approach to comprehensive data-collection is what cardiologists refer to as a ‘coronary steal phenomenon’: one segment of an already well-perfused heart ‘steals’ from another segment to its detriment. The Chinese, for lack of better word, plunder (and leech) data while actively denying market access to foreign companies. 

Google attempted to stay on in China with Project Dragonfly, while Amazon, Meta, Twitter were forced to exit the market. Meanwhile, ByteDance, owner of TikTok, is trying to obscure its CCP ties by moving to a 'neutral jurisdiction' in Singapore, while siphoning off huge amounts of user data from Europe and the US (and wherever else it operates) for behavioural targeting and capturing personal level data, including from children and young adults. The societal implications of the mental health 'epidemic' (depression, low self-esteem, and suicide) remain profound and seem like a reversal of the Opium Wars the West had unleashed on China. 

India can avoid Chinese exclusivism by keeping open access to data flows while insisting on data localisation. The Chinese have upped the ante. Reuters reported that “Chinese organisations have launched 79 AI large language models since 2020”, citing a report from their Ministry of Science and Technology. Many universities, especially in Southeast Asia, are creating new data sets to address the spoken dialects. 

West Asia, possibly realizing the limitations of “peak-oil”, have thrown their hat in the ring. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) claims to have created the world’s “first capable, commercially viable open-source general-purpose LLM, which beats all Big Tech LLMs”. According to the UAE's Technology Innovation Institute, the Falcon 40B is not only royalty free, but also outperforms “Meta's LLaMA and Stability AI's StableLM”. 

This suggests that different countries recognise the importance of investing resources to create software platforms and ecosystems for technological dominance. This is a matter of national security and industrial policy.

“We have no moat” changes everything: welcome to tiny LLMs

Chiranjivi from IIT Bombay, IndiaBERT from IIT Delhi and Tarang from IIT Madras are a few LLMs from India. India needs to get its act together to bring out many more LLMs: these can focus on, and be trained on, specialised datasets representing specific domains, for instance, that can avoid data poisoning. The Ministries concerned should provide support, guidance, and funding. 

The obstacle has been the immense hardware and training requirements: GPT-3, the earlier generation LLM, required 16,384 Nvidia chips at a cost of over $100 million. Furthermore, it took almost a year to train the model with 500 billion words, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars. There was a natural assumption: the larger the data set, the better the result with ‘emergent’ intelligence. This sheer scale of investments was considered beyond Indian purview. 

A remarkable breakthrough was revealed in a leaked internal Google memo, timed with Bard's release, titled "We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI," a veritable bombshell. It spoke about Meta’s open sourcing its algorithmic platform, LLaMA, and implications for generative AI research.  Although there is no expert consensus, the evidence suggests smaller datasets can produce results almost as good as the large datasets.

This caused a flutter among the cognoscenti. Despite Meta releasing its crown jewels for a wider audience (developers), there was an uptick in its stock value, despite failures in its multiple pivots beyond social media. 

To understand this better, Geoffrey Hinton, the ‘godfather’ of deep learning, explains in detail: All large language model (LLM) copies can learn separately, but share their knowledge instantly. That’s how chatbots know more than an average person. The performance trajectory of different LLM’s has skyrocketed; for example, consider this: 

Using LLaMa as a base, researchers were able to quickly (in weeks) and cheaply (a few $100) produce Alpaca and Vicuna that, despite having fewer parameters, compete well with Google’s and openAI's models. The graph shows that the answers from their chatbots are comparable in quality (per GPT-4). A fine-tuning technique called LoRA (Low Rank Adoption) is the secret behind this advance.

This abruptly levels the playing field. Open-source models can be quickly scaled and run on even laptops and phones! Hardware is no longer a constraint. Let a thousand Indian LLMs bloom!  

The way forward

Given the astonishing amounts being invested by venture capitalists and governments in generative AI, there will be an explosion in startup activity. There are already a few in India, such as Gan, Kroopai, Peppertype.ai, Rephrase.ai, TrueFoundry, and Cube. Still, TechCrunch quoted Sanford Bernstein analysts who painted a gloomy picture: “While there are over 1500 AI-based startups in India with over $4 billion of funding, India is still losing the AI innovation battle”. 

Without exaggeration, it can be argued that this is an existential threat for India, and needs to be addressed on a war-footing. The AIforBharat initiative at IIT Madras is a start, but much more is needed. A sharply focused set of policies and regulations needs to be implemented by the government immediately that will both prevent the plunder of our intellectual property and data, and also encourage the creation of large numbers of models that make good use of Indian ingenuity and Indic knowledge.

2245 words, 4 June 2023