Previewing the Stanford game

With Cooper OOO this week, Eric and Kevin are back talking about expectations for Notre Dame coming out of the bye week and preview the Shamrock Series matchup with BYU in Vegas.

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Cooper and Eric are back this week to try and make sense of what we saw in the Marshall game and where Notre Dame goes from here.

(1:37) A conversation about Notre Dame's offense and choosing 1 yard and a cloud of dust instead of a not elite but solid passing attack despite the disadvantages at the QB and WR positions. Continues with a discussion on playcalling and running the ball on 2nd and long.

(10:32) How the Irish can tease out more efficiency from the offense without asking for rapid improvement from their players.

(16:05) Previewing Drew Pyne as Notre Dame's new starting quarterback, the positives, negatives, and what he needs to do to match Tyler Buchner's production. How can Tommy Rees and the offense make his life easier.

(29:28) Why your opinion of Notre Dame should be lower than it was to start the season but not fully cratered at this point.

(31:36) The defense is taking a lot of flack, why some criticism is deserved but most of it is pointed at the wrong target.

(36:50) What should Notre Dame do over the next 10 games in order to keep this season from falling off the tracks.

Cooper is joined by Kevin Murray to review the OSU game, with Eric away this week.

(1:45) Review of the OSU game start. Diving into the overall themes, including the lucky breaks the Irish got with Buckeye injuries and the impressive defensive performance. CJ Stroud started slow but showed Heisman caliber throws down the line.

(9:03) Notre Dame's offensive gameplan review. The Irish never truly threatened to win the game because they did not have a plan in place that allowed them to score. The Irish sported a putrid rushing effort and an underutilized passing attack, hampered by an offensive line that played decent in pass pro and was overmatched in run game, especially on run plays that went lateral across the field.

(16:10) Review of issues with coaching calls and some blunders in decision making by the Irish staff, as well as discussion of cowardly punts by the Buckeyes. The Irish seemed to be caught between wanting to burn clock and wanting to score in moments, and the predictable result was to not score enough to be truly competitive on the offensive side.

(34:55) Marshall preview. ND has a distinct talent advantage, and the Herd should absolutely not be Thundering. In the battle of We are Marshall vs Rudy, Sean Astin should emerge with an easy win.

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It's game week! Cooper and Eric preview the showdown with the Buckeyes in the Horseshoe.

(0:00) 3rd and Gold, our pledge drive partnered with Brady Quinn's 3rd and Goal Foundation, is back! Pledge your preferred amount for Irish players or team milestones, all proceeds from these pledges will be donated to the 3rd and Goal Foundation to help veterans with disabilities and to provide education to veterans. Link below!

(2:10) Ohio State's offensive preview. The Buckeyes are an elite unit despite losing two first round WR (Wilson, Olave) and two veteran OL (Petite-Frere, Munford) to the NFL draft. Led by Heisman favorite CJ Stroud, likely Biletnikoff finalist Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Doak Walker watch list member TreVeyon Henderson, the Buckeyes have the talent to lead the P5 in scoring. Marvin Harrison Jr, Julian Fleming and Emeka Egbuka will present matchup problems for the Irish secondary and LB.

(9:50) Notre Dame offense discussion. The Irish have a recent history of being boat-raced offensively by elite offenses, most notably future national champions 2018 Clemson and 2020 Alabama. With this OSU team looking to be at the level of those programs, how can Notre Dame maximize their roster talent to overcome the wider talent deficit? The guys also discuss what first-year starter Tyler Buchner brings to the table.

(17:15) Notre Dame defense preview. The Irish boast a formidable front 7, with a defensive line that is among the top in the country and an experienced and talented LB corps. The Irish have a number of ballhawk safeties, but the corner room leaves a lot to be desired after Cam Hart. Tariq Bracy has had a fantastic summer, and the Irish need the presumptive Nickel to shine. Clarence Lewis has hit moments, but inconsistency plagued his 2021 season, most notably in the Fiesta Bowl. With the scoring ability of this OSU defense, the Irish will need to generate pressure and likely turnovers if they want to limit the Buckeye scoring machine enough to give the offense a shot to win.

(20:55) Game predictions. Cooper and Eric give their score predictions and discuss the outlook for what different outcomes likely mean for the Irish this year. This also leads into a wider discussion of talent disparity in College Football and how Maruc Freeman is moving the envelope in that regard for the Fighting Irish.

If you enjoy the podcast, like and subscribe, and leave a 5* review! If you have questions for us, send them to our twitter or leave them in your reviews.

Links:

Twitter: https://twitter.com/ND_FB_Analytics

Substack: https://shakedownthenumbers.substack.com/

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(2:25) Season outlook from hosts Cooper Klaus, Kevin Murray and Eric Thomas. With a new Head Coach in Marucs Freeman, a new Quarterback in Tyler Buchner, and significant staff turnover, the 2022 FIghting Irish have more uncertainty about the identity of the team than any Notre Dame team since 2017.

(5:30) During the offseason, Cooper built a game predictions model to calculate the chance for teams to win each of their respective games based on ELO rankings, efficiency rankings on offense/defense, team composite talent and other factors. Cooper breaks down the details of how this model operates, and the guys discuss some of their takeaways pertaining to both the Irish and their Opponents from the generated data. The hosts dive into the opener in Columbus, and predict whether Cooper will be a sad man in the stands of the Shoe.

(14:30) Tyler Buchner talk. (NOTE: Buchner was not formally announced as the starting Quarterback at time of recording.) As a Freshman, TB12 showed glimpses of explosive play capability but also demonstrated some rust and lack of comfort leading the offense. The hosts discuss what they liked from his freshman campaign, where the improvement should come and where they want to see the offense grow around him. The hosts dive into the Clemson game and talk through what to watch for in Buchner's development versus arguably the most talented and deep defensive line in the country.

(26:00) BYU and USC talk. BYU is a veteran team with a talented Quarterback in Jaren Hall, an experienced OL and a mentality that should make them impervious to the temptations of Sin City; a perfect storm for a Shamrock Series matchup in Las Vegas. Sportsbooks at large and Cooper's model have this game being potentially much closer than any Irish fan would like to see, and the hosts dive into how the Cougars match up with the Irish. USC hired offensive innovator and brisket butcher Lincoln Riley away from the Sooners, and have seen a large contingent of talent roll into town this offseason, adding star Quarterback Caleb Williams from OU, 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison from Pitt, and the dynamic Runningback Travis Dye from Oregon. The hosts discuss the difficulty in predicting a team with this much turnover and what to expect from the challenge from USC, as well as how the Irish match up versus the new look Trojans.

(32:00) Record predictions! The gang offers up their predictions for the first year of the Freeman era, balancing the known factors such as the strength ND has in the trenches or the limited depth at WR with the unknown of a first time head coach, a new staff and a young, inexperienced Quarterback.

(35:40) 3rd and Gold! Working with ND legend Brady Quinn's 3rd and Goal Foundation, we have designed a system that turns prop bets into pledges to donate to the welfare of Veterans. Bet on your favorite players to perform and the NDFB Stats and Analytics team will follow up with links to donate based on your pledges. Pledges that hit will also give listeners the chance to win prizes in our giveaways this season. For the Blue & Gold game we gave away a custom ND Football Jersey, and during the season we will look to give away more unique items to further drive donations to the 3rd and Goal Foundation. To learn more about 3rd and Goal, visit https://www.3rdandgoalfoundation.org/.

Shake Down The Numbers is back for episode 24, as Cooper and Kevin dive into Notre Dame's sleepy but respectful blowout of the Midshipmen.

(1:40)  Notre Dame had a productive but unusual game on offense, with Notre Dame executing well enough to win but overall showing an unwillingness to attack a leaky and undermanned Navy secondary with consistency. The OL had maybe their best day against the Navy DL, with not one pressure surrendered by an OL.

(6:00) Kyren WIlliams has been driving the offense, but Notre Dame can maximize his efficiency by leaning on the run less in obvious situations when the defense is keyed in on him. It didn't hurt the Irish this week, but Cooper and Kevin break down how the Irish offense can create more offense to catch up to the elite scorers in the sport.

(10:30) Avery Davis has been a dynamic option for the Irish this year, and has been lost for the year with a torn ACL. While it is exciting to see Freshman Lorenzo Styles will get first crack at taking over the slot, the Irish are down to 5 healthy scholarship receivers and there is some concern about the depth to make it through the season at that position.

(13:00) Review of the ND defense vs Navy. Game ball winner Kurt Hinish dominated in his fourth game against Navy, and the Irish DL as a whole was the most dominant and imposing group on the field.

(15:30) Virginia preview. The dynamic Cavalier offense has posted some gaudy box scores this season, but their offensive creator and team leader Brennan Armstrong is day to day with injured ribs / core. The Hoos like to push the ball down the field and do so efficiently, which could be a problem for a Notre Dame team that looks like it may be once again missing All-American Kyle Hamilton. The Virginia defense is not nearly as formidable, and Kevin Austin could look to have a big day against their corners. 

(27:00) Game predictions and Cooper continues to give away gambling advice.

In episode 23 of Shake Down the Numbers, hosts Cooper and Eric review the 44-34 win over the Tarheels. The offense looked like it was rounding a corner, while the defense looked like it had no idea Sam Howell could run.

(1:40) The Notre Dame offense was efficient rushing and passing, putting together maybe their most complete performance this season. Coan was rushing for touchdowns, Tyler Buchner was throwing touchdowns, and Kyren Williams made the UNC defense look soft. The WR elevated the offense, with Avery Davis and Lorenzo Styles showing their dynamism making big plays on screens.

(11:45) The Irish defense clearly missed All-American Kyle Hamilton, lacking the physicality at the second level to challenge UNC in the run game. Sam Howell was particularly efficient, gauging the Irish defense on designed runs and scrambles alike. The DB's struggled to contain Josh Downs, but did contain the other UNC receivers effectively overall.

(24:15) Navy preview. The triple option is not fun to watch, and Navy is not very good this year. ND's linebackers are playing hurt amidst significant preseason injuries at the position, and the Midshipman offense will wage war on their knees Saturday.  The Irish offense needs to set the tone early and be met with discipline and forced punts or 4th down stops from the Irish defense.

Cooper, Eric and Kevin recap last Saturday's win against the rival Trojans, led by Jack Coan and Kyren Williams. The Irish defense played well despite losing All-American Kyle Hamilton in the first quarter. The guys preview UNC and Cooper looks to continue his streak of Irish moneyline bets.

(1:50) Review of the Irish offense. The use of tempo allowed Jack Coan to lean on his strengths, and Kyren Williams refused to go down on first contact. Notre Dame allowed young freshman skill players to shine and saw some improvement with the offensive line's play as a unit.

(10:40) Drake London was as good as advertised and Keaontay Ingram ran hard but the Trojan offense could not get past communication mishaps and a lack of playmaking by their supporting cast.

(22:00) UNC preview. Sam Howell hasn't quite dominated with his best offensive weapons from 2020 gone for the NFL, but he has added a dynamic rushing element to his game and has remained an explosive threat throwing down the field.

(39:50) Predictions and betting the Irish

In this episode, Cooper takes on his first solo act to preview Notre Dame hosting rival USC. The Trojans fired their head coach, are 2-3 on the season and have lost 3 of the last 4 against the Irish.

(1:10) With Jack Coan announced as the starter and Tyler Buchner recovering from injury, USC appears to be headed right for the Coan Zone. Cooper talks through the QB room and the decision making that led to this point, as well as the ideal offense for ND given the situation.

(6:40) USC preview. The Trojans have been fully reliant on Drake London on offense, and their defense has had trouble stopping anyone. However, a young and budding pass rush and an 8-game road win streak have USC feeling like they have what it takes to pull the upset on the road.

(13:00) If Notre Dame can stop Drake London, the USC offense will stall. Cooper reviews Freeman's options for slowing down the Trojan offensive attack, which starts and ends with #15 for USC. 

(21:50) Cooper reviews his article on Notre Dame kickers, which highlighted the remarkable skill of Justin Yoon to be automatic for short kicks and Jonathan Doerer's rare ability to hit deep kicks as a college kicker. Notre Dame's recent kickers have both been elite, with different high-level skill sets.