Markets are largely reducing expectations for a near-term U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, and we agree. July’s weak jobs report, the underwhelming retail sales report, and continued softening of the monthly inflation figures give the Fed room to stay patient in the coming months.

At the same time, our work suggests interest rates may remain higher than investors became accustomed to during the post-Global Financial Crisis era. For fixed-income investors, however, that does not have to be a negative. Higher starting yields can provide higher income potential, and a potentially stronger foundation for total returns than was available through much of the ultra-low-rate period.

Read the full article: https://www.etftrends.com/etf-strategist-content-hub/todays-interest-rates-not-the-new-normal-just-normal/

Beneath the Headlines: An Economy in Transition, Not in Trouble

Key Takeaways
» The July jobs report headline (-23,000 payrolls and a combined -103,000 in prior-month revisions) glanc-es over a more nuanced picture: layoffs remain his-torically low and job openings remain plentiful. This looks like a labor-supply problem, not a demand setback. Still, the situation bears watching closely.

» All four dimensions of our Recession Tracker are pos-itive for the first time in months as real personal income turned positive year-over-year in June. The aggregate risk level remains Green | Low Risk.

» Headline GDP (+1.5% in the second quarter) contin-ues to understate the underlying economic momen-tum. Real Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchas-ers, the cleaner read on core private demand, accel-erated to +3.9%, up from +1.7% in the first quarter, according to initial estimates.

» Late-July's Iran-driven volatility (the VIX Index rose +25% and oil jumped to $92/bbl) followed the same pattern we have seen repeatedly: a buying oppor-tunity rather than a trend change, and markets have since staged a V-shaped recovery.

After years of a narrow group of technology and microchip stocks driving most of the market's gains, recent volatility is a reminder of what concentration risk feels like in practice. Semiconductor names have swung sharply in recent weeks, and the turbulence has spilled into the broader tech-heavy indexes that many portfolios now lean on heavily for returns. Investors that watched their allocations grow increasingly tied to this one sector of the market may want to rebalance and diversify into areas less correlated with tech's next move and position their portfolios for what's driving the broader economy. 

In this month’s market update, Gary Stringer, Senior Portfolio Manager at Shelton Capital Management, explains why the U.S. economy remains resilient despite geopolitical tensions, softer headline GDP growth, and continued market volatility.

Private sector activity appears stronger than overall GDP suggests, supported by business investment, consumer spending, and government outlays. At the same time, a tight labor market, cooling inflation, and improving corporate earnings continue to support a cautiously optimistic outlook.

While periods of volatility may continue, Shelton Active Allocation Solutions remains overweight equities, with an emphasis on U.S. markets, while favoring high-quality asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities within fixed income.

To learn more, visit: https://advisor.sheltoncap.com/investment-solutions/separately-managed-accounts/active-allocation-solutions/

In this month’s market update, Gary Stringer, Senior Portfolio Manager at Shelton Capital Management, discusses that despite ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the U.S. economy is showing signs of accelerating growth in the second quarter after a relatively soft start to the year. 

As often happens, stock market volatility is creating a lot of unease that masks the positive fundamentals. Legitimate concerns about stock market valuations are being stoked by unnerving headlines that ignore solid, and even improving, economic fundamentals. 

This can be a harsh reality in a mid-term election year, especially given the 24-hour news cycle, though we think that volatility creates opportunity for investors.

Read on at https://www.etftrends.com/etf-strategist-content-hub/despite-uncertainties-the-u-s-economy-powers-on/

Interest rates remain one of the primary concerns for investors as Kevin Warsh has officially assumed leadership at the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). While we believe the possibility of a rate cut has diminished considerably, we are not yet expecting additional rate hikes. In our view, Warsh is likely to chair the board independently and pragmatically in an environment that would make it difficult to justify easing policy while inflation remains elevated. At the same time, we do not anticipate an aggressive tightening stance. Instead, the new Fed Chair may adopt a patient, “wait and see” approach as he evaluates incoming economic data and evolving market conditions.

Read the full update: https://www.etftrends.com/etf-strategist-content-hub/fixed-income-markets-in-a-higher-for-longer-environment/

In this month’s market update, Gary Stringer, Senior Portfolio Manager at Shelton Capital Management, discusses why higher food and energy prices are pressuring consumers, but may not be enough to derail the broader U.S. economy. He examines the economy’s reduced sensitivity to these costs, the role of labor supply in today’s job market, and why inflation may stabilize as shelter costs and other price pressures begin to level out.

In this episode of Real Investment Insights, Client Portfolio Manager, Jonathan Bernstein, and Senior Portfolio Manager, Gary Stringer, discuss how a potential shift in Federal Reserve leadership could influence interest rates, balance sheet policy, and bank reserves. 

Tune in for a thoughtful conversation on how changes in Fed policy may affect markets and the broader economy.

To learn more, visit sheltoncap.com/stringer.

In this episode of Shelton Capital Management’s Real Investment Insights, Jonathan Bernstein, Client Portfolio Manager, is joined by Gary Stringer, Senior Portfolio Manager, to discuss how currency movements can shape international equity returns. They explain why foreign investing involves more than just stock selection, how shifts in the U.S. dollar can create tailwinds or headwinds for returns, and where currency-hedged ETFs may fit into a portfolio.

To learn more, visit sheltoncap.com/stringer

In this month’s market update, Gary Stringer, Senior Portfolio Manager at Shelton Capital Management, shares our first quarter 2026 review and outlook. He discusses why recent geopolitical volatility has dominated headlines, but may be obscuring a more constructive story underneath: a broadening U.S. economic expansion, rising business investment, improving industrial activity, and new opportunities across equities and fixed income.

To learn more, visit: https://www.sheltoncap.com/investment-solutions/stringer-risk-managed-strategies/

Prefer to watch the video? Visit: https://youtu.be/_osKOglHRpU