Competing reports vary widely on cost

A study released on Dec. 10 suggested that, if it moves forward, a proposal for New York State to take over Central Hudson would cost $3.5 billion.

Customers would see immediate savings, according to projections from the Hudson Valley for Public Power coalition. By Year 30, a publicly owned utility could save ratepayers $210 million per year, it said.

At the same time, an executive summary of a second study, released the same day and funded by opponents of the proposed Hudson Valley Power Authority, doubled the purchase-price estimate to $6 billion to $7.5 billion. The industry-backed Protect Our Power coalition also added $2.6 billion to $5.2 billion for a potential transition from natural gas to electric service that the HVPA would study.

Customers could see their bills swell by 36 percent, it said, with conversion from gas to electric costing about $57,000 per home by 2028. Protect Our Power concluded that the cost of a takeover could climb as high as $12.2 billion.

Legislators must parse the conflicting narratives as they consider a bill that would have the state take control of a system serving 315,000 electric customers and 90,000 natural gas customers in parts of nine counties, including Dutchess and Putnam.

Central Hudson says it's not for sale; separate legislation would allow the state to buy the utility under eminent domain, which requires only "just compensation" for property needed for public use. Central Hudson, one of six private utilities in the state, has been owned since 2013 by Fortis, a Canadian holding company.

The HVPA bill, introduced in the state Senate by Michelle Hinchey (a Democrat whose district includes parts of Dutchess and Putnam counties) and in the Assembly by Sarahana Shrestha (a Democrat whose district includes the northwest corner of Dutchess), outlines the process by which the state would create a "democratically governed" nonprofit that would work to keep residential electric bills below 6 percent of household income.

Putnam County Executive Kevin Byrne, a Republican, opposes the HVPA, calling the notion that it will save customers money "speculative, at best." Leaders of the electrical workers' union that represents about 700 Central Hudson employees also oppose the plan, as do the Orange, Ulster and Dutchess chambers of commerce.

Dutchess County Executive Sue Serino, a Republican, has taken a wait-and-see approach, saying that "any new proposal should come with clear, concrete guarantees that it will truly deliver the savings and reliability people deserve."

Ulster County Executive Jen Metzger, a Democrat, is a proponent, saying residents should be confident their utility "can meet the challenges of the day, including climate change." In February, Kingston became the first municipality in the region to back the plan, unanimously passing a resolution.

A decision by legislators isn't imminent. Shrestha said this summer that she doesn't expect Democratic leaders to call for a vote until the bill has enough support to pass, which she said could take two or three years.

The Hudson Valley for Public Power study relied on data from Central Hudson's rate-increase requests to the state Public Service Commission. It asserts that a public authority would save customers $15.2 million in Year 1, $116.8 million in Year 20 and $210.5 million annually by Year 30.

The study did not analyze supply costs, assuming they would be the same for either entity. On the delivery side, it projected an immediate 1.9 percent decrease in gas and electric rates and a 12.7 percent decrease over Central Hudson's expected rates by Year 30. Overall, the estimated savings would be $2.9 billion over 30 years, it said.

The estimates include taxes paid to localities and charitable giving, "to make this as close to an apples-to-apples comparison" as possible, said Scott Burnham, one of the analysts. The report assumed the HVPA would receive an interest-free $76 million loan from New Yor...