Simply Economics

After the recent round of central bank announcements, hopes are building that many tightening cycles may finally be nearing an end. However, with prices up around 30 percent since last June, the oil market could yet mean some unwelcome upside surprises in future inflation reports

Yield curves are inverted across North America, much of Europe and parts of the Southern Hemisphere but investors are split over what happens next to the global economy. Is a downturn just around the corner or can we look forward to a soft landing?

Over the last couple of days, we’ve seen key interest rates hiked in the Eurozone, left on hold in the U.S. and cut in China. All of which means that the global economic outlook is as complicated as ever. The Econoday team pull it all together.

Taken together with the latest raft of central bank announcements, the recent deluge of real economy and inflation updates has given investors plenty to chew on. Here’s Econoday’s take on what it all means for the global economic outlook and financial markets

Recent interest rate hikes by several major central banks clearly underline the determination of the monetary authorities to get inflation back under control. However, for now, QT may have to run alongside central bank liquidity injections to reassure investors that another global financial crisis is not just around the corner.

Despite some generally hawkish central bank statements this week, financial markets apparently remain convinced that official interest rates will be falling before year-end. So, who’s right and does the disconnect matter? Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss.

Market reaction to this month’s data underscores just how uncertain investors are about the global economic outlook. And this means that asset prices are likely to remain particularly sensitive to the higher frequency data, at least until the picture becomes clearer.

Friday’s U.S. employment report dominates this week’s economic data calendar but it’s been the disastrous U-turn in UK government fiscal policy and the subsequent enforced deferral of the BoE’s QT plans that’s left many investors really rattled. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss what’s going on.

Supported by aggressive rhetoric, this week’s raft of official interest rate hikes means that many central banks are still firmly in tightening mode. And that’s adding to recession risks and posing increasing problems for those monetary authorities reluctant or unable to follow suit.

The impact of surging energy prices on monetary policy has been apparent for some while now but as the cost-of-living crisis intensifies, the real economy fallout is increasingly forcing governments to intervene with fiscal help. The team discuss the global picture.