SKEPTIC’S GUIDE TO INVESTING

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What if the next big investment opportunity isn't where you'd expect it to be? Join us as we kick off our 2025 podcast series with Glenn, where we explore the world of 'spice' stocks—those hidden gems in burgeoning sectors like data centers, cloud services, renewable energy, and quantum computing. These mid-cap and smaller companies offer a unique way to spice up your portfolio with high alpha potential, balancing risk and reward through a barbell strategy. Discover the importance of selecting companies with strong profitability and cash reserves, ensuring your investments remain stable even amidst the allure of high-growth opportunities.

Meet the intriguing players like Palantir and IonQ in the high-risk investment space. We critically assess Palantir's impressive market cap against its revenue, delving into its heavy reliance on government contracts, while also exploring IonQ's futuristic quantum computing technology with its potential to revolutionize encryption and cryptocurrency security. The conversation emphasizes the need for a cautious approach, balancing the excitement of high-risk opportunities with the importance of measured investment strategies.

Explore the strategic potential of mid-cap stocks as we challenge the dominance of mega-cap giants. With Glenn's insights, we scrutinize the potential pitfalls of over-reliance on stocks like Apple, Google, and Tesla, considering regulatory pressures and operational challenges. Uncover the sweet spot for investors seeking long-term growth by allocating 10-15% to mid-caps, especially in emerging sectors like AI and healthcare. This episode provides a comprehensive guide to building a robust and balanced portfolio, positioning mid-caps as a stable and attractive alternative in a market often overshadowed by its larger counterparts.

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None

Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

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In this episode of Skeptic’s Guide to Investing, Steve Davenport and Clem Miller discuss what investors should be tracking as the Second Trump Administration gets underway.  

Will increased energy output be addressed on Day 1?  Will these policies support not just increased oil drilling but also natural gas exports and nuclear? 

Will the Administration and Congress get so side-tracked by social issues and retribution against perceived enemies that it will be unable to form a bipartisan consensus to extend the 2017 tax cuts? 

Will proposals by Elon Musk and his so-called DOGE to drastically slash government spending, including entitlements, be stymied by Trump’s own allies in Congress?  Is DOGE just another distraction? When will Trump dump Musk?

Will there be any efforts made to build out the infrastructure needed to keep U.S. industries competitive with those of other countries? 

Will Trump’s cabinet and agency nominees demonstrate the competence necessary to manage government functions effectively?

Steve and Clem also discuss and debate the weak long-term return projections of several prominent investment management firms.  These projections are lower than would be implied by long-term U.S. nominal economic growth trends, but do they embed an expectation of recession?  Do they reflect a substantial multiple contraction? 

Finally, we discuss how we’re positions our portfolios for the opportunities and uncertainties posed by Trump 2.0. 

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None

Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

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In this episode of Skeptic’s Guide to Investing, Clem Miller and Steve Davenport discuss how the incoming Trump Administration’s threats to impose very high tariffs, expel millions of undocumented immigrants, and reshape U.S. alliances  to favor authoritarian regimes (coupled with the Fed’s strong dollar policy) are causing global shockwaves. We discuss the precarious position of Trudeau’s government in Canada and the prospect of U.S. military intervention in northern Mexico to address migration and drug crimes.  We discuss shifts within multi-party coalitions in Germany, potential EU direct military involvement in Ukraine should the U.S. reduce support, and Russia’s covert efforts to destabilize EU governments.  We discuss the attempted self-coup in South Korea, as well as the political and economic situations in Brazil and China.   Finally, Steve and Clem share their thoughts on U.S. investors should consider these developments with respect to their stock selection and portfolio positioning. 

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None

Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

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What if you could make trading decisions without emotion clouding your judgment? Join us as we sit down with Adrian Reid from Enlightened Stock Trader, who reveals the secret ingredients for trading success in 2025. Adrian's unique approach focuses on systematic strategies that prioritize models over market noise, incorporating factors like momentum, size, and volatility. Learn how he strategically excludes European markets to focus on regions with the best potential edge and expectancy, navigating through the complexities of markets in the US, Canada, Hong Kong, and Australia.

Delve into the intricacies of trading strategies and risk assessment with Adrian, as he shares insights into using short interest as a quant factor and the distinction between alpha and beta for informed investment decisions. Discover the potential of mean reversion and trend-following strategies to capitalize on stock-specific behavior rather than broader market movements. We also discuss the importance of preparing for potential downturns, ensuring that your portfolio is robust enough to endure market fluctuations.

Explore the art of portfolio diversification and market allocation as Adrian emphasizes the importance of liquidity and maintaining insignificant trades to prevent market influence. Gain insights into strategic diversification across different markets, considering factors like liquidity, spreads, and tax implications. With robust backtesting and a diversified approach, Adrian aims to ensure consistent success, navigating market volatility while mitigating risks. Tune in for a wealth of expert insights that could transform your trading journey.

For more information on Adrian Reid:

https://enlightenedstocktrading.com/free/

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None

Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

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Clem Miller and Steve Davenport discuss President-Elect Trump’s transactional approach to resolving thorny international conflicts, such as with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in the Middle East conflict, or with China-Taiwan. 

Will Trump abandon or downgrade long-standing relationships with NATO or other allies as he makes foreign policy deals? 

Is Trump likely to be successful in bringing regional adversaries like Russia and Ukraine, or Israel and Iran, to the negotiating table? If there are agreements reached, what is the likelihood they will stick?  

Should we look at proposed U.S. tariffs on Chinese products as an economic issue or as more of a tool for gaining foreign policy leverage on the Taiwan issue?  Will China ever promise to refrain from attacking Taiwan?

Will the U.S. be drawn into conflict with Russia or North Korea through increased Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory or North Korean troops?

We discuss these and more foreign policy issues as Inauguration Day approaches.  What are our takeaways for investment portfolios?

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None

Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

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Steve Davenport and Clem Miller discuss President-Elect Trump’s domestic agenda: deportations, tariffs, taxes, and energy.  Will Trump have a durable Congressional majority to enact his policies?  What can he do by Executive Order?  Will he squander too much political capital on distractions or retribution? Even if his policies are enacted, what would be their true economic impact?  Won’t deportations of employed immigrants, and broad-based tariffs lead to recession and higher inflation? What are our investment takeaways?

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None

Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

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Surprised by the recent election results? You're not alone. Despite widespread economic discontent, Trump's resounding victory over Kamala Harris left many, including us, scratching our heads. Join Clem Miller and me, Steve Davenport, as we unpack the implications of this political shift and explore how the economy, especially inflation, played a pivotal role in shaping voter sentiment. We dive into the cyclical nature of political power and discuss the public's lofty expectations for falling prices, posing significant challenges for Trump's administration. We'll also look into how key figures like Elon Musk could influence the effectiveness of Trump's governance and what this means for investors navigating these turbulent market reactions.

With political turbulence on the horizon, we analyze potential resistance efforts and the role of checks and balances in maintaining a stable government. Surprising voter demographics, particularly among white men and women, point to a complex tapestry of issues ranging from economics to trust in government, and we explore how Democratic states might push back against federal policies. Our conversation is more than just analysis; it's about preparing you for the future. We conclude with our commitment to enhancing audience engagement, inviting you to suggest interviewees and topics that could sharpen your investment strategies. Your insights are valuable, and we can't wait to hear from you!

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None

Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

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How do Europe’s strict regulations ripple through Silicon Valley? Join us on Skeptic's Guide to Investing as Steve Davenport and Clem Miller unpack the labyrinth of European regulations reshaping the landscape for US tech behemoths. Discover how the Digital Markets Act is poised to level the playing field, forcing giants like Alphabet, Apple, and Meta to reassess their global strategies. Learn about the daunting hurdles posed by the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), and its wide-reaching implications for data privacy and global data transfers, leaving US companies scrambling to comply.

But that's not all—our conversation takes a sharp turn towards artificial intelligence. Explore the "Brussels effect" and how EU regulations are casting a global shadow over AI practices, compelling tech innovators to adapt in uncertain terrain. We also dissect the competitive dynamics among tech titans like Apple, Microsoft, and Google, and the geopolitical chess game of chip manufacturing. With a keen eye on innovation, we highlight the challenges and opportunities these tech giants face amidst increasing regulatory scrutiny. Don't miss as we also address the pressing need for transparency in AI-generated content on social media, and what this means for the future of digital interactions.

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None

Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

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In today’s episode, Steve and Clem discuss (and debate) the idea of replacing a portion of your bond holdings with a satellite portfolio of assets that that may offer a superior combination of yield and inflation resistance. 

We consider the fact that inflation, while moderating significantly, is far from conquered.  We also wonder if Fed rate cuts might actually prompt a return to higher inflation.  Last, we wonder if we’re overdue for a sizable equities correction, especially among those AI and pharma stocks that have had a good run. 

For this inflation-proofing satellite portfolio, we look at REITs, utilities, and natural resource equities, including energy, mining, and agriculture.

All of these assets have advantages with respect to yield and inflation resistance, but whether they offer total returns superior to those of general equities is open to question. 

Steve and I welcome you to share your insights and continue the conversation. 

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None

Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

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What happens when a seasoned business traveler trades in short visits for a month-long immersion in Japan? Join us as Clem Miller unravels his captivating journey through the Land of the Rising Sun, offering a rich blend of personal anecdotes and cultural insights. From Tokyo's bustling streets to Kyoto's serene temples, Clem paints a vivid picture of Japan's unique juxtaposition of modernity and timeless tradition. Discover how a society renowned for technological prowess still thrives on a predominantly cash-based economy and why its retail scene remains vibrant despite the global shift towards online shopping.

We take you on a spiritual exploration of Japan, where Shintoism and Buddhism coexist harmoniously, creating a cultural landscape of openness and mutual respect. Clem shares touching stories of Japanese society's honesty and kindness—from unlocked bicycles to a cab driver who returned overpaid fare—offering a glimpse into the heart of a nation anchored in spirituality. And if you're a sports enthusiast, you won't want to miss Clem's lively recount of Japanese baseball games, a testament to the country's dynamic cultural tapestry.

Transportation and trust go hand in hand in Japan, and Clem sheds light on the efficient Shinkansen bullet trains and the intriguing economic insularity of this fascinating country. Take a stroll through the allure of Japanese gardens and learn about "forest bathing," a practice woven into the fabric of Japanese life. With our listener demographics shifting, we're excited to see Singapore take the lead in downloads, and we extend heartfelt gratitude to our global audience for their ongoing support. Join us as we continue to share stories and explore the art of living life to the fullest.

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None

Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.