SKEPTIC’S GUIDE TO INVESTING

Please text and tell us what you like

We delve into the controversial topic of allowing private equity, real estate, debt, and even cryptocurrency into 401k retirement accounts, offering a skeptical analysis of this potential shift in retirement planning.

• Government is willing to allow private markets and crypto in 401ks, though these options aren't widely available yet
• Private markets involve less transparency and liquidity than traditional investments
• Historically, private investments required accredited investor status, assuming wealth equals financial education
• Many wealthy individuals have fallen victim to investment scams like Bernie Madoff and FTX
• Employers may face significant liability if employees lose money in private market 401k investments
• Marketing tactics of private equity firms often create false exclusivity around their products
• Volatility measurements for private investments are misleading due to infrequent pricing
• Traditional portfolio optimization models may overweight private investments due to understated volatility
• Gating provisions in private investments could restrict access to retirement funds
• Education and proper sizing of allocations would be crucial if these investments become mainstream options
• Current recommendation is caution before jumping into private markets in retirement accounts

Please listen to Skeptic's Guide and share it with your friends. Send us your questions and feedback so we can improve our show and get back to the mailbag soon.

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None

Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

Please text and tell us what you like

Retirement investing has lost its way. While Wall Street fixates on asset growth and total return, millions of retirees struggle with a fundamental question: how do I generate reliable income without depleting my savings?

Steve Selengut, veteran investor and former RIA owner who managed $100 million in assets, challenges the industry's growth-obsessed paradigm with a refreshingly old-school approach. His investment philosophy centers on four principles largely abandoned by today's advisors: quality, diversification, income production, and systematic profit-taking.

Unlike conventional strategies that rely on selling assets during retirement (the problematic "4% rule"), Selengut's approach creates multiple income streams through dividends, interest payments, and strategic profit-taking. This methodology recognizes market cycles as opportunities rather than threats, allowing investors to average down during downturns and harvest profits during upswings.

At the heart of this strategy lies an often-overlooked investment vehicle: closed-end funds (CEFs). These actively managed portfolios trade like stocks while offering exceptional income potential—typically 7-10% yields compared to the paltry 1-3% from traditional sources. For retirees seeking monthly income without touching principal, CEFs provide a compelling alternative to conventional bond and dividend strategies.

Perhaps most importantly, Selengut demonstrates how focusing on income growth rather than market value creates a more resilient retirement plan. While portfolio values fluctuate with market conditions, properly structured income portfolios can grow their cash flow year after year, providing peace of mind regardless of market volatility.

Whether you're approaching retirement or already there, this episode challenges you to reconsider what really matters: not the size of your portfolio, but the reliable income it generates. Ready to rethink your retirement strategy? This conversation might just transform how you view investing for the rest of your life.

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None

Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

Please text and tell us what you like

The financial markets are running hot as we head into Q4 2025, but are we witnessing sustainable growth or dangerous froth? In this thought-provoking episode, Clem Miller and Steve Davenport tackle the pressing question on many investors' minds: what's ahead for the markets?

Steve kicks things off with a bold prediction - the market appears to be discounting an overly optimistic future, particularly in AI-related stocks. When companies merely mentioning artificial intelligence command 30-50x earnings multiples while established healthcare giants trade at 7-9x earnings, something seems amiss. As Steve puts it, "If it looks like froth and feels like froth, it might be froth."

The discussion heats up around Oracle's shocking 35% single-day gain. Is this unprecedented move justified by legitimate future cloud computing growth, or does it represent market exuberance gone wild? The hosts dissect whether such "statistical anomalies" - these "100-year floods" happening with uncomfortable frequency - should prompt investors to take some chips off the table.

The conversation shifts to practical portfolio management strategies during potentially turbulent times. Rather than abandoning growth entirely, Clem advocates controlling risk through forward PEG ratios, portfolio beta, and monitoring short interest. Meanwhile, Steve recommends increasing allocations to undervalued sectors and maintaining hedges like gold as protection against his predicted 10% correction.

What about the Federal Reserve's next moves? Both hosts anticipate 25 basis point cuts in September and December, though they caution that market expectations for more aggressive easing may lead to disappointment. The episode wraps with a teaser for their next provocative topic: government ownership stakes in American companies under the Trump administration.

Whether you're looking to protect gains, find undervalued opportunities, or simply understand what's driving today's market dynamics, this episode delivers the balanced, skeptical perspective you need to navigate the frothy fourth quarter. Subscribe now and join the conversation!

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None

Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

Please text and tell us what you like

Women are consistently outperforming men in investment returns—by about four basis points—yet they're starting later and investing less. This fascinating paradox lies at the heart of our conversation with financial services veteran Megan Smith, who brings decades of experience in alternative investments and client advising to the table.

"Investing is more about patience and consistency than it is about number crunching," Smith reveals, challenging the notion that successful investing requires complex mathematical skills. Instead, she points to women's tendency to be less emotional about their investments and more focused on long-term goals as key factors in their outperformance.

With women currently controlling 32% of global wealth—a figure projected to rise dramatically as wealth transfers from older generations occur—the conversation around women and investing has never been more relevant. Smith shares personal insights from her journey from marketing to sales in financial services, highlighting how her father's simple advice to maximize her 401(k) contributions shaped her financial future: "You'll never see the money, therefore you don't need it."

The democratization of alternative investments emerges as another crucial theme, as assets once reserved for institutional investors become increasingly available to individual investors. Smith offers thoughtful guidance on how millennials and Gen X investors should approach alternatives differently than boomers, emphasizing that time horizon is everything when considering less liquid investments. Her perspective on crowdfunding platforms, values-based investing, and the risks of including alternatives in 401(k) plans provides a balanced view for investors of all experience levels.

Whether you're just starting your investment journey or looking to refine your strategy, Smith's practical advice—start early, maximize employer matches, and develop a thirst for financial knowledge—offers a roadmap for success. Tune in to discover how you can build a portfolio that aligns with both your financial goals and personal values.

As mentioned on the podcast, here is the link to a charity Megan Smith supports:

https://impactmelanoma.org

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None

Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

Please text and tell us what you like

Gene Natali, CFA, joins us to discuss his mission to solve America's financial literacy crisis through his innovative platform Troutwood and his bestselling book "The Missing Semester." We explore how technology can scale financial education and planning to reach millions of Americans who lack basic financial knowledge despite good jobs and education.

• Gene's journey from institutional asset management to becoming a financial literacy champion
• The inspiration behind "The Missing Semester" which has reached over one million readers
• How Troutwood's platform connects planning, engagement and incentives in one unified system
• The $14 trillion retirement shortfall in America and how the finance industry has failed average Americans
• Why financial education must focus on action rather than just knowledge
• The importance of secure AI in maintaining trust in financial guidance
• Community connection to investing makes financial markets more relatable
• The need for financial habits to become as automatic as brushing your teeth
• Why the "delta" (taking action vs doing nothing) matters more than "alpha" (investment outperformance)
• Creating centers of excellence for financial literacy across institutions

Help someone you know who's having financial challenges by sharing Troutwood's tools with them. If everyone reaches out to two or three people, we can start to make a real difference!

https://www.troutwood.com/troutwood-basic

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None

Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

Please text and tell us what you like

Joe Sroka of NovaPoint Capital shares his journey from West Point graduate and military officer to financial advisor, explaining how military discipline informs his investment approach for clients.

• From buying savings bonds during military service to becoming a financial advisor at Merrill Lynch
• West Point education provided strong math and analytical skills that transferred well to finance
• NovaPoint specializes in dividend growth investing rather than high-yield strategies
• Uses covered call options to enhance income and create a disciplined sell methodology
• Targets companies raising dividends consistently, indicating disciplined financial management
• Firm values: experience, discipline, and integrity guide all client relationships
• Willing to accommodate client preferences while maintaining overall portfolio risk parameters
• Regular charitable giving to veterans' organizations including Children of Fallen Patriots
• Personally serves as treasurer for the US Army Ranger Association
• Emphasizes financial education and engagement with clients and family members

Check out NovaPoint Capital to learn more about our approach to dividend growth investing and disciplined risk management.

NovaPoint: https://novapointcapital.com/

Children of Fallen Patriots: https://www.fallenpatriots.org/

Special Operations Medical Association: https://specialoperationsmedicine.org/ 

Wreath Across America via Johns Creek: https://www.wreathsacrossamerica.org/pages/168142/overview/?Sid=168142%7C14806%7C0%7C4

U.S. Army Ranger Association: https://ranger.org/

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None

Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

Please text and tell us what you like

What if your investment dollars could create positive change while still generating competitive returns? In this eye-opening conversation, financial expert Mimi Locke joins hosts Steve Davenport and Glenn Miller to explore the world of values-aligned investing and women's financial empowerment.

Mimi shares her journey from being the lone woman in a room of 60 stockbrokers to co-leading courses for Invest for Better, a nonprofit helping women align their portfolios with their personal values. She dispels the persistent myth that investing according to your principles means sacrificing performance, explaining how even traditional energy companies are pivoting toward sustainable practices.

The conversation delves into the unique financial challenges women face—earning less, experiencing career interruptions for caregiving, and needing retirement funds to last through longer lifespans. When women step away from careers to care for family members, they don't just lose immediate income; they miss crucial years of retirement contributions and Social Security credits, creating compounding disadvantages that affect long-term security.

Each participant shares their personal "money story," revealing how childhood experiences shape our financial behaviors. Mimi describes growing up with a Depression-era father who emphasized saving "just in case," while the hosts reflect on their own financial journeys and how those experiences influenced their approaches to money management.

Whether you're interested in gender-lens investing, environmental impact, or simply aligning your portfolio with your values, this episode provides practical insights for making your money work harder—both for your future and for the causes you care about. As Mimi notes, the key is starting small: even modest investments in alignment with your values can create meaningful change.

Ready to take control of your financial future while supporting what matters most to you? Visit investforbetter.org to explore resources and courses designed to empower investors at every level of experience.

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None

Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

Please text and tell us what you like

When politics collides with economic data, investors face a troubling dilemma: can we trust the numbers that drive markets? The unprecedented firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics head by President Trump signals a concerning shift in how government economic data might be manipulated for political gain.

The BLS produces critical labor and inflation statistics that power Federal Reserve decisions and investment strategies worldwide. Now, this foundational data source carries an asterisk. As Clem Miller pointedly observes, "Don't trust the BLS data going forward because it's subject to a potentially high degree of manipulation." This isn't merely political theater—it represents a fundamental challenge to economic transparency.

Fortunately, we're entering an era where alternatives exist. Private sector solutions like ADP's employment data, sophisticated web scraping, and AI-powered analytics offer potentially more accurate and timely economic indicators. Major financial institutions possess unprecedented visibility into consumer spending and wage patterns through anonymized data. The future may belong to investment firms willing to embrace these alternative data streams rather than relying on potentially compromised government statistics.

For skeptical investors, this represents both challenge and opportunity. Those who recognize this shift early can gain an information advantage by questioning traditional sources and diversifying their data inputs. Whether you're managing a portfolio or simply trying to understand market movements, adapting to this new data landscape might prove essential for navigating today's politically charged economic environment.

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None

Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

Please text and tell us what you like

Joe Ryu, manager of Prospect Capital's private real estate credit fund, shares his journey from investment banking through the Great Financial Crisis to his current role in real estate credit investing. He explains how private credit offers attractive risk-adjusted returns through specialized financing structures that combine agency lending with subordinated positions.

• Real estate private credit involves loans on commercial properties that don't freely trade, typically accessed through institutional investors
• Private credit investments often offer higher returns with less volatility than public market equivalents, though with reduced liquidity
• Prospect Capital's strategy creates value by partnering with Freddie Mac to provide borrowers with competitive financing while maintaining conservative risk profiles
• Unlike many competitors who use fund-level leverage, Prospect's approach avoids taking on additional debt at the fund level
• Private credit valuations are more straightforward than equity valuations since loans are only impaired if property values fall below loan amounts
• Focusing on stabilized, cash-flowing multifamily properties reduces risk compared to development projects or challenged office assets
• The real estate capital stack typically includes senior debt (60-70%), subordinated debt/preferred equity (10-15%), and equity (25-30%)

Join us for our next episode as we continue exploring alternative investment opportunities that can help diversify your portfolio while aligning with your financial goals.

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None

Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.

Please text and tell us what you like

What does the market look like through the eyes of a seasoned Wall Street veteran? Adam Parker, founder of Trivariate Research and CNBC contributor, joins us to share his institutional perspective on today's investment landscape.

The conversation begins with Adam's surprising take on political developments – while headlines focus on tariffs and tax policy, institutional investors are looking elsewhere. He shares what's really dominating client conversations and why certain sectors remain largely immune to policy shifts. As he puts it, "I think investors just didn't focus on it that much."

We dive deep into the AI revolution, with Adam providing a framework for categorizing companies in four distinct ways: direct revenue beneficiaries, productivity winners, businesses impregnable to disruption, and those vulnerable to AI-driven obsolescence. His unique insights come from systematic analysis of earnings calls using natural language processing to identify trends before they become obvious. Remember – in November 2022, major investment banks made zero mentions of AI in their outlook documents, yet within six months, we witnessed the largest upward sales revision of any mega-cap in history with NVIDIA.

Perhaps most contrarian is Adam's take on international investing. He dismisses the recent European outperformance as "a temporary trade that's already over," explaining why structural differences make US equities structurally superior: "The reason Europe is cheaper is because it's worse. It's the same reason Motel 6 is cheaper than the Four Seasons."

Throughout our conversation, Adam emphasizes his core investment philosophy: "The two things that matter most to investing are changes to perceptions about growth and changes to perception about rates." This simple yet powerful framework helps explain market movements and provides clarity amid complexity.

Whether you're managing a large portfolio or just beginning your investment journey, you'll appreciate Adam's no-nonsense perspective, combining statistical rigor with practical wisdom gained from decades on Wall Street. Visit trivectorresearch.com to access Adam's insights for individual investors and financial advisors.

Straight Talk for All - Nonsense for None

Please check out our other podcasts:

https://skepticsguidetoinvesting.buzzsprout.com

Disclaimer - These podcasts are not intended as investment advice. Individuals please consult your own investment, tax and legal advisors. They provide these insights for educational purposes only.