In this episode, we explore the cyclonic patterns that affect the Indian Seas, focusing particularly on the peculiarities of December cyclones. Our experts, AVM GP Sharma and Mahesh Palawat, discuss why December storms are unique in terms of their intensity, track and timeline. They explain how and why the December cyclones in the Indian Ocean typically develop in the first half of the month and tend to be weaker. Despite their milder nature, these systems often bring significant rainfall to the coastal regions of Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Sri Lanka.

We also reflect on the recent cyclones that caused devastation, especially during landfall, and examine the trends of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. As we look ahead, we provide an update on the current equatorial disturbance over the Bay of Bengal and discuss the expected weather patterns for the rest of the month. Tune in to gain insights on development of cyclones in India and its surrounding Subcontinent.

The fourth cyclonic storm of the year, Cyclone Fengal, is developing over southwest Bay of Bengal. This is a unique cyclonic storm due to its inception, track, timeline and potential intensity. In the 10th episode of our podcast series, our expert meteorologists, AVM GP Sharma and Mahesh Palawat, have discussed the current status of the storm, its effect on Tamil Nadu and the Sri Lankan coasts and the further trajectory of the cyclone as well.

The cyclone began as a low-pressure system at 4°N, near the equatorial region, over southeastern Bay of Bengal. Struggling to develop initially, it gained strength near the meeting point of a deep depression and cyclone formation. At present, Fengal is positioned near the Sri Lankan coast, moving northwest toward Tamil Nadu with moderate wind speed and a sea surface temperature of around 28°C, supporting gradual intensification.

The coastal districts of Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka's eastern coast will continue to receive heavy to extremely heavy rainfall. As Fengal moves into close proximity to the Tamil Nadu coast, possibly by the night of November 29th, coastal cities like Puducherry and Chennai will likely experience strong winds and plenty of rain as well. Without having any significant effects inland, the cyclone will continue to stay on course and track the coastline. While it is not a severe cyclone, its proximity to the coastal areas requires utmost caution and our meteorologists suggest not lowering guards whatsoever. 

The ongoing buzz about La Niña started even before the Southwest Monsoon but has yet to materialize. El Niño and La Niña are Pacific Ocean phenomena where warming leads to El Niño and cooling leads to La Niña. Our expert meteorologists AVM GP Sharma and Mahesh Palawat discuss how La Niña and El Niño affect winter rainfall and temperature. Despite forecast agencies, including NOAA, predicting La Niña’s arrival by May 2024, ENSO-neutral conditions have persisted, suggesting any upcoming La Niña will likely be short and weak. La Niña usually emerges in April, peaks by November and fades by March, but this year’s delay until December (if it occurs) is unprecedented. Past data shows, that La Niña doesn’t necessarily correlate with harsher winters, though it can enhance winter rainfall. There are no major Western Disturbances to be seen at present which has kept temperatures high, with Delhi experiencing record warmth through October and mid-November. A weak Western Disturbance, which is arriving today, may bring rain and snow to Jammu and Kashmir (as witnessed previously at the higher reaches) but won't dramatically lower temperatures. November is expected to bring gradual cooling, with no sharp plunge forecasted for the next 10 days.

Winters arrive with huge health risks and challenges for the citizens caused by hazardously severe air pollution in Delhi NCR. As the temperature drops, the air becomes cold and settles close to the surface of the earth. When the wind is weak and there is little movement, dust and pollutants mix with fog, which worsens air pollution. This hazardous situation persists until winter rains wash away the pollution, offering temporary relief. In the coming days, Delhi’s pollution levels will remain dangerously high, but a breeze could bring some much-needed respite. We urge our audience to stay indoors and take necessary precautions during this challenging time. Follow us for more such insights and timely updates on Youtube, X, Facebook and Instagram and you can also tune in to our podcasts on audio platforms such as Spotify, Apple podcast, Audible, JioSaavn, Amazon Music etc. 

As Cyclone DANA is moving closer to the coasts of Odisha and West Bengal, thick clouds have turned the skies overcast and winds are getting gustier. With wind speed of over 100 km/h and gusting of up to 125 km/h, the Cyclone is expected to make landfall between Paradip and Balasore during the early morning hours of October 25. 

Over 200 trains have been cancelled in advance and air operations at Kolkata and Bhubaneswar will be interrupted from 5 p.m. today until 9 a.m. tomorrow. As per reports, whilst many offices, colleges and organizations will be closed, essential services will keep operating. In the districts of Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore, Jagatsinghpur and Puri, where residents are especially at risk, about 400,000 people have been evacuated. West Bengal's coastline, extending from Digha to Diamond Harbour is still highly vulnerable.

Weather conditions have begun to be impacted by the storm's outer bands and are expected to worsen throughout the course of the night. Significant flooding and a storm surge in the oceans with wave heights of 15-20 feet can occur during the 3–4 hour landfall phases. There is considerable danger from the combination of severe winds and plenty of rain, and possible communication problems are expected to last till tomorrow. It is anticipated that restoration work will start later tomorrow or the next day. For their protection, residents in impacted areas must continue to remain alert and follow local Government advice.

In this episode, we discuss DANA, the season's first post-monsoon cyclonic storm named by Qatar. Currently located in the east-central Bay of Bengal, DANA is expected to shift toward the northwest Bay of Bengal near the coastlines of Odisha and West Bengal. It is expected that as the storm grows stronger, it will evolve into a severe cyclonic storm with wind speeds of between 100 and 120 km/h. Even though DANA's limited travel by sea indicates that it might not develop past the severe cyclonic category, yet the inclement weather conditions will still remain alarming.

Currently positioned around 700 kilometres southeast of Paradip, Odisha, the system continues to expand in deep waters with a relatively high heat potential (>100 kJ/sq cm) under ideal climatic conditions. By early tomorrow morning, DANA is predicted to shift west-northwest and strengthen into a cyclonic storm. It is expected to intensify before making landfall in close proximity to the coast of Odisha and West Bengal in the early hours of October 25th.

The precise position will become increasingly clear over the following day, but the likely landfall zone covers from Puri, Odisha, to Diamond Harbour, West Bengal. The whole West Bengal coastline as well as the coastline of North Odisha are still exposed to hazardous weather as we keep an eye on this developing situation.

This thought-provoking edition of the Skymet Podcast features AVM GP Sharma - President of Meteorology & Climate Change and Jatin Singh - Founder & CMD of Skymet. Together, they discuss and analyze how weather influences India's defence strategies and procedures, and the opportunities and risk factors brought upon by the Indian weather system. 

In this episode, they have analyzed the implications and application of weather in military operations, focusing as an example on the historic strike on Balakot on February 26, 2019.

This discussion also addresses the difficulties and breakthroughs in weather modification, such as cloud seeding and government-sponsored artificial rain projects, based on AVM GP Sharma's experience serving in the Indian Air Force. They discuss the viability of weather modifications that may soon be used as a tactical move for both defence and improving weather conditions against adversities like pollution and droughts.

Southwest monsoon is expected to withdraw from the entire country during the next 48 hours and simultaneously Northeast monsoon will set in. The well-marked low-pressure area is over the Southwest Bay of Bengal off the Tamilnadu coast. It may intensify into a depression and move over Tamilnadu. Heavy rainfall has already commenced over the South Peninsula. All the necessary criteria are in place for the onset of North East monsoon. Northerly and Northeasterly winds as well as moderate to heavy rainfall have commenced. Tamilnadu receives around 60 to 65% of annual rainfall during the North East monsoon.

The southwest monsoon is nearly completing its withdrawal anytime soon and the northeast monsoon is likely to usher in the South Peninsula. Since the southwest monsoon has not yet completely withdrawn from the country, Hence it might take another 48 hrs for it to complete and within the same time, the arrival of the Northeast monsoon will also be announced. A good amount of rainfall over Tamil Nadu is expected along with south coastal Andhra Pradesh. Tamil Nadu may start witnessing the Rainlash starting from midnight on the 15th of Oct and will continue throughout the 16th of Oct. 

There are two cyclone seasons in the Indian Seas. One is before the Monsoon during May and June. And another during the post-monsoon season during October and November. The Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal are becoming active. We expect the twin weather system to churn in both oceans next week. Typhoon Milton has already made landfall over Florida, USA. Typhoons, cyclones and hurricanes usually develop with greater intensity during October and November over the South China Sea Pacific Ocean as well as over the Atlantic Ocean.