Oil surges and stocks slip Monday after Iran says talks with Oman are nearing agreement while denying any direct negotiation with the US — the same contradiction pattern markets have wrestled with for days — pushing September rate-hike odds back above 50% just one trading day after falling to 42%. We cover Intel's selloff following a $15 billion stock offering, Nvidia's pullback despite reports of a $500 billion AI infrastructure financing partnership with Apollo Global and Blackstone, and BTIG technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky's read on why markets may be growing desensitized to this cycle of Middle East headlines. We also cover Datadog's standout two-day rally on strong earnings, a rough stretch for optical and networking names including Coherent and Lumentum, and smaller stories on AbCellera Biologics' huge single-day jump, Archer Aviation's Boeing acquisition, and shifts in India's Nifty 50 index. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.

After the best week for US stocks since April, driven by a surprising July jobs decline that slashed September rate-hike odds from 55% to 42% overnight, attention shifts fully to this week's inflation data. We cover the genuinely mixed forecasts heading into Wednesday's CPI report, oil's climb this morning on renewed uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, and a Deutsche Bank strategist's framing of how the Iran negotiation question has shifted from whether a deal happens to what its final terms will actually look like. We preview CoreWeave's earnings later this week as the latest test of whether AI infrastructure spending is converting into durable profit, alongside Applied Materials' report from the supply side of that same story, and cover Bank of America's bullish sentiment survey and Fundstrat's Tom Lee sticking with his call for the S&P 500 to reach 8,000. We close with what to watch in gold and silver this week, and a note on Rheinmetall's guidance cut. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.

Iran and Oman signal they're nearing a deal on managing the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran's own Supreme National Security Council draws a sharp line, saying full reopening depends on a list of demands including a US withdrawal and compensation that observers call highly unlikely to be met. We cover a fresh weekend strike on a UAE-owned tanker even as those talks proceed, notable CNN reporting that America's top general is privately pushing for an "off-ramp" from the conflict, a separate Yemeni military strike on Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, and questions raised by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's continued public absence. We close with a sober look at the conflict's toll after roughly five and a half months, what this means for how oil could open Monday, and a preview of this week's critical CPI and PPI inflation data. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.

The US economy unexpectedly loses 23,000 jobs in July, wage growth cools to its slowest pace since 2021, and the unemployment rate falls for the least encouraging reason possible — yet the S&P 500 closes the week at a fresh record. We unpack why markets read weak labor data as good news for Fed policy, the nuance underneath the headline number including a government-jobs-driven decline and sizable downward revisions to May and June, and a second straight winning week that saw chip stocks stage a real comeback. We also cover SpaceX's striking 11% rebound after a brutal prior week, Airbnb and Microchip Technology's strong earnings against The Trade Desk's steep selloff, gold breaking above $4,400 an ounce, and a preview of next week's CPI and PPI inflation reports. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.

Markets brace for the July nonfarm payrolls report after a genuinely contradictory run of recent data — record-low layoffs and weekly jobless claims sitting alongside a badly missed ADP private hiring number and soft job openings. We cover why today's release could determine whether the Fed sticks to its currently priced single rate hike or moves toward as many as three by year-end, and look back at Thursday's session, where the Dow snapped its record win streak on rising yields, a SanDisk-led chip selloff, and lingering Hormuz deal uncertainty. We also cover the final stage of SpaceX's IPO lockup expiration and the stock's surprisingly calm reaction, Peloton's first profitable fiscal year paired with a cautious outlook, renewed overnight geopolitical tension pushing oil higher, and Fundstrat's Tom Lee predicting a continued rally toward 7,900 to 8,000 on the S&P 500 this month. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.

US markets notch a third consecutive record close after Palantir's stock surges nearly 30% on a 93% revenue jump, Amazon briefly crosses $3 trillion in market value, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could land as soon as today. We cover oil's dramatic slide from above $100 to under $79 a barrel in under two weeks, a genuinely encouraging July ISM manufacturing report showing the first employment expansion in 33 months, and the more tempered overnight reception to earnings from SpaceX and AMD. We also look at Asian markets rallying sharply on the same Hormuz optimism, gold's third straight day of gains near $4,150 an ounce, and a note of caution as US margin debt hits an all-time high. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.

Markets wake up to a much murkier picture than Monday's record close suggested, after Iran publicly denied Trump's claim that talks were underway, and Trump followed with sharply escalated rhetoric describing the moment as a last chance before what he called decapitation. We cover why Asian markets failed to follow Wall Street's Monday rally, with doubts about the AI trade resurfacing and chip stocks in South Korea sliding again, alongside a look back at last week's violent momentum-stock whiplash tied partly to a forced hedge fund unwind at Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness fund. We also preview SpaceX's first-ever public earnings report tonight, with the stock down more than 50% from its post-IPO peak, Deutsche Bank's bullish long-term price target, and a looming insider share-lockup expiration just two days away. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.

Oil sinks and stocks rally to open August after President Trump cancels a planned "massive" strike on Iran and says new talks begin today — even as Iran itself has yet to publicly confirm any of it. We cover Brent's sharp drop toward $84, the Dow leading US gains while small caps lag behind, and the relief rally spreading to European and Indian markets, including a bumpy debut for a new end-of-day pricing system on India's National Stock Exchange. We preview a genuinely packed week ahead: ISM manufacturing data today, JOLTS and productivity figures midweek, Friday's critical nonfarm payrolls report, and earnings from Palantir, AMD, SpaceX, Disney, and dozens of others. We also cover Prysmian's acquisition of Atkore, SpaceX's continued slide since its June IPO, and MicroStrategy's latest bitcoin and capital-raising moves. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.

President Trump says he's calling off a planned attack on Iran, contingent on a rapid deal, and points to progress in Iran-Oman talks over managing the Strait of Hormuz — but Iranian state media has yet to acknowledge broader negotiations are even happening, and ships remain stuck in both the strait's northern and southern corridors. We cover the tension between that diplomatic opening and a fresh strike on a Qatar-linked LNG carrier over the weekend, the US Treasury's decision to tighten Iranian oil sanctions on the very same day, and Iran's parallel warning of a decisive response to any renewed US or Israeli action. We close with a sober look at the conflict's cumulative toll on shipping and seafarers over the past five months, and a brief preview of this week's nonfarm payrolls and ISM manufacturing data. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.

Markets suffer their worst Fed-decision day in over a year and a half after Iran launches a surprise missile attack ending the recent lull in fighting, and the Federal Reserve holds rates steady on a notably split 9-3 vote that sent long-term Treasury yields to their highest levels since 2007. We cover the Dow's worst single-day drop since April 2025, a second consecutive day of steep losses for chip stocks in South Korea and the US including Qualcomm's earnings miss, and a rare bright spot in Ford's strong quarterly beat. After the close, Meta and Microsoft deliver starkly different results: Meta's revenue beat is overshadowed by a 14% profit decline and no 2027 spending guidance, while Microsoft's Azure growth and surging contracted revenue give investors a much clearer answer on AI monetization. We close with gold's continued climb and where bitcoin stood heading into the Fed decision. This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice.