Markets have been rallying since mid-June on the hopes that the Fed can engineer a "soft landing" of the economy, where inflation becomes subdued, without materially harming the labor market or the economy broadly. The ARC Asset Management team unpacks the narrative and explores what has to go right for it to become a reality.

The ARC Asset Management team talks about Friday's big jobs report and its impact on inflation, recession chances, and how it might affect the Fed's thought process. It also touches on the Democrat's climate bill which passed the Senate Sunday night and discusses earnings estimates and the team's current view on client portfolio positioning.

The ARC Asset Management team discusses the latest FOMC meeting where the Fed hiked 75 basis points; however, it was the press conference following the announcement that sent markets higher as investors interpreted Fed Chair Jay Powell’s off the cuff comments as “dovish.” Yields, credit spreads and implied volatilities (uncertainty readings) fell, while equities rallied. The team discusses whether this was the correct interpretation while also talking about how earnings announcements and the potential for a recession could impact stocks and bonds.

The ARC Asset Management team discusses the changing dynamics within the stock and bond markets over the last month, touches on early second quarter earnings reports, and takes a deep dive into expectations for the Federal Reserve’s path forward and what it might mean for longer term interest rates and the stock market going forward.

The ARC Asset Management team discusses the 75 basis point increase by the Fed, the persistence of inflation, and slowing economic trends. It then discusses the impact on financial markets and whether or not the big sell-off over the last two weeks might be capitulation.

The ARC Asset Management team discusses the current market volatility spurred to a large degree by inflation, inflation expectations and the resulting path of monetary policy. It's safe to say a pause in the rate hike path is off the table given the persistence in the inflation data but we'll know more on Wednesday (FOMC meeting).

The ARC Asset Management team discusses recent market movements, the Fed's inflation dilemma, the direction of interest rates, and whether market indicators are suggesting a soft landing is realistic or not. The team also touches on recent headlining grabbing comments by Elon Musk and others while also discussing the rapid deterioration in CEO confidence and what it could mean for the economic outlook.

The ARC Asset Management team discusses last week's CPI (inflation) data, the fact that economists continue to cut GDP forecasts, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence numbers (weakest since 2011), all while household balance sheets - and corporate balance sheets - remain strong, making the Fed's job to tame inflation more difficult. This poses unique problems for traditional balanced portfolios as stocks and bonds have been moving in the same direction - down.

The ARC Asset Management team discusses the increase in volatility, whether or not the Fed (FOMC) Press conference was really as "dovish" as some thought, the recent jobs reports and their impact on inflation, as well as an update on the 1Q2022 earnings season in light of the challenging margin environment with wages and input costs increasing.

The ARC Asset Management team discusses the upcoming Fed (FOMC) meeting, the rate hike (50 bps priced-in), longer-term inflation expectations that have continued to increase, and the associated risk of these expectations becoming unanchored. They discuss the Fed's need to slow the economy to moderate inflation, relieve the tightness in the labor market, as well as an update on the 1Q2022 earnings season in light of the challenging margin environment with wages and input costs increasing.