Small Time Bets: The Only Annual Podcast

In this special year-end episode, Jonathan and Douglas look into the crystal ball for 2026 before facing the music on their 2025 calls. We’re shaking up the format this year: 2026 Big Bets come first, followed by the definitive marking of last year’s homework.

Part 1: The 2026 Predictions 🔮

We break down our high-conviction bets for the year ahead across five key pillars:

• ​The Markets: Will the momentum continue, or are we due for a correction?
• ​AI: Moving from "efficiency" to "autonomy" - what happens next?
• ​Tech: The hardware and platforms set to dominate the next 12 months.
• ​Society: Cultural shifts, the "proof of personhood" movement, and beyond.
• ​Politics: Geopolitics, trade, and the evolving landscape of the Trump administration.

Part 2: Marking the 2025 Homework 📝

We revisit our 2025 predictions to see who actually came out on top. It was a year of "shadow wars" and "Trump bumps." Highlights include:

• ​The Big Hits: We correctly called the "shadow war" on European subsea infrastructure and the rise of a new micromobility category - the "Enclosed Quadricycle".
• ​The AI Shift: Our prediction on AI legal advice eroding prices hit home, with major platforms slashing costs by 60%.
• ​Market Volatility: While we were directionally right on the "up and to the right" market, the "Liberation Day" tariff crash in April 2025 kept us from hitting our ambitious Dow and S&P targets.
• ​Corporate Winners: Alphabet was a standout, soaring over 60% as Waymo moved toward independence with a $100B+ valuation.
• ​The "Misses": From the Ukraine stalemate to the delayed launch of GTA 6 and the "iPhone Fold," we own up to where our timing was off.

Who won the 2025 crown, and who is doubling down for 2026? Tune in to find out!

Jonathan and Douglas are back with their diamond hands and their crystal balls! Join them for their annual predictions podcast, featuring 12 predictions each for the year ahead and a look back at their 2024 track record. Will they be right again? Tune in and find out!

This is the trailer and episode 0 for “Tech Back Control”, a podcast about taking back control from technology, using technology. 

We're entering into an era where generational disruptions in technology have the potential to shift power back into the hands of the people and the planet. AI is giving super powers to the masses; open digital money is uprooting the legacy financial system; the 3rd iteration of the web means an internet run by the people, for the people; and a 4th industrial revolution might help us make food, buildings and everything without killing the planet at the same time. There's some hope hiding in plain sight and I'm going on a journey to find and explore it. 

To find out more, follow on Twitter or join the Discord or check out other links in the link tree 

https://linktr.ee/techbackcontrol

We review our 2022 predictions, see what surprises surfaced along the way and share our 2023 predictions.

Also: A Year in the Markets and the equivalent look back and forward in Web3.

Links we mentioned:

Our Discord:

https://discord.gg/9Fktv2u3vu

We have a merch store:

https://www.redbubble.com/people/smalltimebets/shop

Our TikTok:

https://www.tiktok.com/@smalltimebets

Our YouTube channel:

https://youtube.com/channel/UCw_yPi2f07yh15JbGnWYUjQ

After 5 weeks away Jonathan and Douglas talk ChatGPT, a month of Musk-Twitter, provide a proper summary of FTX, and a roundup of NFT news.

Links we mentioned:

Making ChatGPT run a fictional chat room:

https://twitter.com/gfodor/status/1599233429941686273?t=MC8EmsA3ahzuSXj4wFDqAA&s=09

Making ChatGPT pretend to be Linux:

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2022/12/openais-new-chatbot-can-hallucinate-a-linux-shell-or-calling-a-bbs/

FTX spreadsheet comment re “hidden, poorly internally labled ‘fiat@’ account”

https://d1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net/production/7ab64a3b-6ce0-47cc-96ac-5e2d2a8c5d6c.png

CZ explains SBF was lobbying against Binance:

https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1589374530413215744?s=46&t=cApjraFG0hlMNEYl4zz4zA

A motion-activated rechargeable light strip:

https://amzn.to/3UPethO

Coinbase NFTs subject to Apple’s 30% in-app purchase fee, supposedly levied on ethereum gas:

https://twitter.com/CoinbaseWallet/status/1598354819735031809?t=kov-CcyFM--3RJyWRRPbDQ&s=09

Christie’s NFTs:

https://nft.christies.com/auctions/next-wave-the-miami-edit 

Our Discord:

https://discord.gg/9Fktv2u3vu

We have a merch store:

https://www.redbubble.com/people/smalltimebets/shop

Our TikTok:

https://www.tiktok.com/@smalltimebets

Our YouTube channel:

https://youtube.com/channel/UCw_yPi2f07yh15JbGnWYUjQ

Tech is down and crypto is up as rates rise in the US and UK. But 0.75% has different meanings on either side of the Atlantic in our market update.

Then this week we go deep on autonomous vehicles because suddenly everyone’s a critic. Triggered by a harmless TechCrunch article.

This Week in Crypto looks at Meta’s embrace of arweave for NFTs on Insta; and in NFTs we cover the Meebits MB1.1 relaunch, clarify which NFT projects survive, and make sense of Art Gobblers.

And FYI we’re going dark for a month, so stay warm.

Links we mentioned:

The article “It’s time to admit self-driving cars aren’t going to happen” by TechCrunch’s Darrell Etherington:

https://techcrunch.com/2022/10/27/self-driving-cars-arent-going-to-happen/amp/

Elon promising self driving “next year” supercut:

https://youtu.be/o7oZ-AQszEI

SunGod sunglasses:

https://www.sungod.co/?r=PPoVcICTbd

Instagram announces meaningful NFT marketplace:

https://twitter.com/Meta/status/1587929277864910849?s=20&t=jjrYpyRMNNyNgSUsrSdYZQ

The Meebits relaunch:

https://turnon.meebits.app/

Art Gobblers:

https://artgobblers.com/

Small Time Bets across TikTok, YouTube, Twitter, Discord, merch and more:

https://linktr.ee/smalltimebets