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Briefing Doc: Telecom and Tech Policy After Trump's 2024 Election Win

Key Themes:

1. Deregulation and Industry Favoritism: A second Trump administration is expected to favor deregulation across the tech and telecom sectors, particularly benefiting companies like Starlink and potentially harming rivals like fiber broadband providers.
2. Uncertainty Around Spectrum Allocation: While the need for more spectrum is widely acknowledged, the allocation process under Trump remains uncertain, with various stakeholders vying for influence.
3. Potential Conflicts of Interest with Elon Musk: Musk's financial support for Trump's campaign and potential advisory role raise concerns about conflicts of interest, particularly regarding Starlink's position within the BEAD program.
4. The Future of the BEAD Program: The future of the BEAD program under Trump is uncertain, with possibilities ranging from streamlining to complete overhauls potentially favoring satellite broadband over fiber.
5. Impact of Tariffs on Tech and Telecom: Trump's proposed tariffs on foreign goods could disrupt supply chains for telecom equipment and raise the cost of cloud services for enterprises.

Most Important Ideas/Facts:

Deregulation and Industry Favoritism:

• Experts predict a rollback of net neutrality regulations. "Deregulation will be the order of the day," says John Strand, an analyst at Strand Consult. (Mobile World Live)
• The FCC under Trump is expected to be more favorable to Elon Musk's Starlink, potentially granting it more spectrum and favorable policies. (CNET)
• Some experts believe Musk will use his influence to push for changes in the BEAD program to favor satellite broadband over fiber. (Fierce Network)

Spectrum Allocation:

• The FCC currently lacks spectrum auction authority, which needs to be addressed by Congress. (Mobile World Live)
• There is uncertainty about which stakeholders will have the most influence over spectrum allocation, including telcos, cable companies, the Department of Defense, satellite providers, and big tech companies. (Mobile World Live)

Elon Musk's Influence:

• Musk's significant financial contributions to the Trump campaign and potential role as an advisor raise concerns about conflicts of interest. (Capacity Media)
• Musk may push for more spectrum for Starlink and advocate for reducing government funding for competing broadband technologies. (CNET)

The BEAD Program:

• Trump has criticized BEAD for its focus on fiber and suggested Starlink could offer a cheaper alternative. (Fierce Network)
• While some Republicans advocate for streamlining BEAD to accelerate deployment, others may seek to overhaul or even scuttle the program. (Fierce Network)

Impact of Tariffs:

• Trump's proposed tariffs could impact telecom equipment manufacturers like Nokia and Ericsson. (Fierce Network)
• Tariffs on imported chips could raise the cost of cloud services, as hyperscalers would pass on the increased expenses to enterprises. (Fierce Network)

Quotes:

• “Deregulation will be the order of the day.” - John Strand, Strand Consult (Mobile World Live)
• “If you look at Musk’s various efforts to improve his spectrum position, whatever his batting average is, it’s not hot. It’s going to be a lot higher if Trump wins. And that’s a very significant win.” - Blair Levin, New Street Research (CNET)
• "We’re spending a trillion dollars to get cables all over the country, up to upstate areas where you have two farms, and they are spending millions of dollars t

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-Mario Mejia

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Briefing Doc: U.S. Telecom Trends - Convergence, Spectrum Scarcity, and the Enduring Relevance of Wi-Fi

Date: November 3, 2024

Sources: A compilation of press releases, news articles, and industry analyses from AT&T, Comcast, T-Mobile, UScellular, Verizon, and Opensignal.

Key Themes:

1. Convergence of Fiber and 5G: AT&T leads the charge with an industry-first integrated gateway offering seamless failover between fiber and 5G networks in a single device. This reflects a growing trend of converging fixed and wireless technologies to provide businesses with uninterrupted connectivity.
2. Spectrum Scarcity Driving Densification and Innovation: With the FCC lacking auction authority and limited spectrum availability, UScellular anticipates carriers will increasingly focus on network densification strategies using small cells to meet growing data demands. This reinforces the value of existing tower infrastructure.
3. Continued Dominance of Wi-Fi in Data Consumption: Despite advancements in 5G, Opensignal data reveals that Wi-Fi remains the primary source of smartphone data consumption in the U.S. This trend is particularly pronounced among cable MVNOs like Spectrum Mobile and Xfinity Mobile, which leverage extensive Wi-Fi networks for offloading cellular traffic.
4. Cable Companies Facing Challenges in Video Segment: Comcast's Q3 results showcase the ongoing decline of cable TV subscriptions, prompting discussions about potentially parting ways with their cable networks businesses. 
5. T-Mobile's Strong Performance and Aggressive Growth: T-Mobile reports impressive Q3 earnings, boasting industry-leading customer additions and revenue growth. They attribute this success to their 5G network superiority, value propositions, and innovative customer experiences.

Important Facts:

• AT&T's integrated gateway launches nationwide for select business fiber customers in early 2025.
• UScellular agrees to sell its wireless operations to T-Mobile for $4.4 billion, with the deal expected to close in mid-2025. They also sold spectrum to Verizon for $1 billion.
• Verizon aims to double its fixed wireless subscriber base to 8-9 million by 2028.
• Comcast lost 365,000 Xfinity TV subscribers in Q3 2024, while their broadband business lost 79,000 residential customers.
• T-Mobile added a record 865,000 postpaid phone customers in Q3 2024 and achieved a record low postpaid phone churn rate of 0.86%.
• Opensignal data indicates that T-Mobile users consume the highest proportion of data on cellular connections compared to other operators.

Emerging Trends and Points of Discussion:

• The convergence of fiber and 5G raises questions about the future of fixed wireless access and the role of 5G in providing backup connectivity for businesses.
• The scarcity of spectrum could lead to increased competition for tower space and drive up costs for carriers.
• The enduring relevance of Wi-Fi highlights the need for carriers to develop strategies that effectively integrate Wi-Fi into their service offerings.
• The decline of cable TV subscriptions presents both challenges and opportunities for cable companies as they navigate the evolving media landscape.
• T-Mobile's aggressive growth strategy and focus on 5G network superiority position them as a formidable competitor in the U.S. wireless market.

Thank you for listening!
-Mario Mejia

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Briefing Doc: Oct 27, 2024

Editor's Note: AI doesn't yet know to read 'mmWave' as 'millimeter Wave'; will fix in future episodes!

Key Themes:

• The "iPhone 16 supercycle" fizzles: Initial sales of the iPhone 16 have been underwhelming, failing to drive significant device upgrades for AT&T and Verizon in Q3. However, T-Mobile remains optimistic, attributing the slower adoption to the delayed rollout of key AI features, suggesting a potential for a delayed surge in upgrades.
• Fiber is the future, while 5G mmWave fades: T-Mobile is pivoting towards fiber internet, launching new fiber plans in select cities, recognizing the superior speed and reliability of fiber compared to fixed wireless. This aligns with the industry's trend towards fiber, highlighted by Verizon's aggressive FWA expansion plans using C-band and mmWave. T-Mobile is also abandoning its 5G mmWave expansion, citing limited use cases and performance issues, highlighting the industry's shift towards mid-band 5G.
• Broadband capex declines, but investment remains strong: Despite a 7.5% drop in capex in 2023, the broadband industry continues to invest heavily in infrastructure, driven by fiber deployment, network integration, and rising bandwidth demands. 
• FCC actions and regulatory scrutiny intensify: The FCC's decision to grant FirstNet access to the 4.9 GHz band, despite objections from T-Mobile and Verizon, underscores the ongoing battle for spectrum resources and potential legal challenges. Additionally, the FCC is increasing consumer protection measures, including broadband nutrition labels and investigating bulk-billing arrangements, signifying heightened regulatory scrutiny of the industry.
• Consolidation and M&A activity on the rise: The ongoing acquisition of UScellular by T-Mobile, accompanied by UScellular's spectrum sales to Verizon and other MNOs, exemplifies the trend towards consolidation within the telecom sector. This trend is further reflected in the private wireless space, with HPE acquiring Juniper Networks to strengthen its position in the market.

Important Ideas/Facts:

• T-Mobile embraces fiber: T-Mobile is launching new fiber internet plans starting at $55/month, offering speeds of 500Mbps and 1,000Mbps in select cities, recognizing the superior performance and reliability of fiber compared to 5G Home Internet.
• Verizon doubles down on FWA: Verizon plans to double its FWA footprint to 90 million homes by 2028, utilizing C-band and mmWave spectrum, aiming to reach 8-9 million FWA subscribers by 2028: "Fundamentally doubling down on fixed wireless is a good thing," said Roy Chua, principal analyst at AvidThink. (Verizon Q3 Earnings Call).
• Broadband investment continues: Despite a drop in capex, the broadband industry invested $94.7 billion in 2023, with USTelecom CEO, Jonathan Spalter, stating: “This data shows the U.S. broadband market is clearly working. Broadband competition is continuing to drive unprecedented value for U.S. consumers who are connecting at faster speeds and lower prices.” (USTelecom report)
• FCC grants FirstNet access to 4.9 GHz: The FCC's decision to grant FirstNet access to the 4.9 GHz band, despite strong opposition from T-Mobile and Verizon, could have significant implications for public safety communications and the commercial use of this valuable spectrum.
• FCC increases consumer protection: The FCC is implementing new consumer-protection measures, including broadband nutrition labels and investigating bulk-billing arrangements, signaling a more active role in regulating the industry and protecting consumer interests.

Thank you for listening!
-Mario Mejia

Let us know your thoughts about this episode!

Note: This is not legal advice. 

Sources:

• "FTC Finalizes ‘Click to Cancel’ Rule | Sheppard Mullin Richter & Hampton LLP - JDSupra"
• "FTC Finalizes “Click-to-Cancel” Rule | Foley & Lardner LLP"
• "FTC ‘Click-to-Cancel’ Rule Requires Canceling Recurring Charges to Be as Easy as Signing Up – Publications"
• "Negative Option"
• "p064202_negative_option_rule.pdf" (FTC Final Rule document)

Executive Summary:

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) finalized the "Click to Cancel" Rule, against deceptive or unfair negative option marketing practices. The rule aims to make it easier for consumers to cancel recurring subscriptions and memberships. It expands upon existing laws like the Restore Online Shoppers' Confidence Act (ROSCA).

Key Themes and Provisions:

1. Expanded Scope: The rule applies to all forms of negative option marketing, including but not limited to automatic renewals, continuity plans, free-to-pay conversions, and pre-notification plans.
2. Prohibition of Misrepresentations.
3. Clear and Conspicuous Disclosures: Sellers must provide clear and conspicuous disclosures of all material terms before obtaining billing information. This includes: 
   1. Existence of the negative option feature: Clearly stating that the offer involves a recurring subscription.
   2. Total cost: Disclosing all costs involved, including recurring charges and any price increases after trial periods.
   3. Billing information transfer: Disclosing if billing information will be shared with third parties.
   4. Cancellation mechanism: Describing a straightforward method for consumers to stop recurring charges.
4. Unambiguously Affirmative Consent: Sellers must obtain express informed consent before charging consumers, separate from any other part of the transaction and cannot be bundled with other agreements.
5. Simple Cancellation Mechanism: The rule mandates that cancellation must be as easy as signing up. Consumers should be able to cancel online through a readily accessible method.
6. "Saves" Provision: The rule restricts the use of "saves," defined as attempts to dissuade consumers from cancelling by offering alternative deals or discounts.

Implications for Businesses:

• Reviewing and updating disclosures
• Implementing straightforward cancellation mechanisms
• Obtaining separate and affirmative consent for the negative option feature
• Training customer service representatives

Glossary of Key Terms

• Negative Option Feature: A contract provision where a consumer's inaction or silence is interpreted as consent to purchase a good or service.
• Automatic Renewal: A type of negative option where a subscription automatically renews at the end of a billing cycle unless the consumer actively cancels.
• Continuity Plan: A negative option program where consumers receive periodic shipments of goods or services until they cancel.
• Free-to-Pay Conversion: A negative option where consumers receive a free or discounted trial period, after which they are automatically charged.
• Pre-notification Negative Option Plan: A program where consumers receive periodic notices offering products or services and must actively decline to avoid being charged.
• UDAP: "Unfair or deceptive acts and practices" statutes enforced by various agencies to protect consumers.
• Preemption: A situation where a federal law overrides or nullifies a state law.
• Severability Clause: A

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-Mario Mejia

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Briefing Doc - October 21, 2024

Main Themes:

• 5G Standalone (SA) and Advanced Technologies: The rollout of 5G SA is enabling new services and capabilities, paving the way for the adoption of 5G-Advanced features.
• Fiber Expansion and Fixed Wireless Access (FWA): Fiber deployment continues to be a priority, while FWA emerges as a competitive alternative to traditional broadband in underserved areas.
• Network APIs and Monetization: Operators are exploring new revenue streams by leveraging network APIs to offer innovative services and partnerships.
• Spectrum Acquisition and Value: Spectrum remains a valuable asset, with operators engaging in strategic transactions to acquire and optimize their spectrum holdings.

Key Insights and Facts:

Industry Consolidation and Partnerships:

• Verizon and UScellular: Verizon is acquiring spectrum licenses from UScellular for $1 billion, following a previous deal where T-Mobile purchased a significant portion of UScellular's assets.
• Verizon and Frontier Communications: Verizon has submitted a $20 billion proposal to acquire Frontier Communications to expand its fiber footprint and potentially offer bundled mobile services.
• 12 Global Telecom Operators and Ericsson: A consortium of 12 leading telecom operators, including América Móvil, AT&T, and Vodafone, has partnered with Ericsson to create a platform for developing and monetizing network APIs.

5G Standalone (SA) and Advanced Technologies:

• T-Mobile 5G SA Leadership: T-Mobile boasts a nationwide 5G SA network, positioning it as a leader in the US market.
• 5G-Advanced Rollout: T-Mobile plans to launch its first 5G-Advanced service by the end of 2024, focusing on enhanced video streaming experiences using L4S technology.
• Deutsche Telekom's 5G SA Gaming Offer: Deutsche Telekom has launched a 5G SA-based gaming service, highlighting the operator's strategy of linking 5G SA to specific use cases.

Fiber Expansion and Fixed Wireless Access (FWA):

• C Spire Fiber Focus: C Spire, a regional US carrier, has heavily invested in fiber infrastructure, leveraging it to power its wireless, residential, and business services.
• Verizon Fios Expansion in Rhode Island: Verizon is partnering with the Rhode Island Commerce Corporation to expand its Fios fiber network to underserved areas in Jamestown and Westerly.
• FWA Market Growth: The global FWA market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.4% from 2024 to 2032, driven by the demand for high-speed internet access in underserved areas.

Network APIs and Monetization:

• Global API Platform: The joint venture between 12 telecom operators and Ericsson aims to create a global platform that allows developers to access network capabilities through APIs.

Spectrum Acquisition and Value:

• Dish Network Spectrum Valuation: Analysts suggest that UScellular's spectrum deals could increase the estimated value of Dish Network's spectrum holdings to $16 billion.

Challenges and Opportunities:

• Maintaining Competition: Industry consolidation raises concerns about potential market dominance and reduced competition.
• Bridging the Digital Divide: Expanding broadband access to underserved areas remains a critical challenge and opportunity.
• Monetizing 5G Investments: Operators are seeking innovative ways to generate revenue from their substantial 5G investments.

Thank you for listening!
-Mario Mejia

Let us know your thoughts about this episode!

U.S. Wireless Market Briefing: 5G, FWA, and Industry Shakeups

Key Themes:

• 5G Evolution: The industry is moving beyond basic 5G deployments, with T-Mobile leading the charge towards 5G-Advanced and exploring hybrid network approaches.
• FWA Dominance: Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is rapidly becoming the preferred broadband solution, driven by technological advancements and competitive pricing.
• Industry Consolidation & Partnerships: Major players like Dish, Echostar, and Verizon are engaging in significant financial restructuring, partnerships, and asset sales to navigate a challenging market.

T-Mobile at the Forefront of 5G Innovation:

• Hybrid Networks: T-Mobile is pioneering a hybrid approach combining private networks and network slicing, allowing organizations to prioritize specific traffic (e.g., medical images) within their private network and across public 5G.

"We’re able to make the surrounding network pieces capable of network slicing. So, if an ambulance is arriving at a hospital, we can prioritize the traffic from that [ambulance],” - Ulf Ewaldsson, T-Mobile President of Technology.

• 5G-Advanced Rollout: T-Mobile plans to launch its first 5G-Advanced service by the end of 2024, leveraging its nationwide standalone 5G network. The initial offering will focus on improving video streaming quality through "Low Latency, Low Loss, Scalable throughput" technology.
• Ambitious FWA Goals: T-Mobile has raised its FWA subscriber target to 12 million by 2028, signaling a strong commitment to FWA as a core offering.

Challenges and Opportunities in the Wireless Landscape:

• Dish and Echostar Seek Stability: Dish faces ongoing financial pressures as it strives to meet its 5G coverage target. 
• Spectrum Debates: AT&T's controversial proposal to relocate CBRS users to lower frequencies and auction off the 3.55-3.7 GHz band for licensed use highlights the fierce competition for mid-band spectrum. This move is facing strong opposition from existing CBRS users like WISPA members who rely on this band for fixed wireless services.

"AT&T doesn’t just want to kill competition in the CBRS band, they want exclusive control over spectrum currently shared among a diverse array of users." - Tamara Smith, Spectrum for the Future spokesperson.

• FWA as a Killer App: FWA has emerged as a dominant force in the broadband market, outpacing cable in net adds. Factors driving its success include:
• Technological advancements enabling higher speeds and capacity.
• Increased spectrum availability across licensed and unlicensed bands.
• Competitive pricing on par with cable offerings.
• Consumer acceptance of FWA speeds as sufficient for current needs.
• "Today’s FWA is not yesteryear’s FWA...  we see a bright future for fixed wireless access – which has been a clear “killer app” for 5G thus far." - Kyung Mun, Senior Analyst, Mobile Experts LLC.

Strategic Shifts in a Maturing Market:

• Verizon Leans into AI and Partnerships: Verizon is focusing on AI implementation within call centers to enhance agent performance and call resolution. The company is also strategically divesting assets, selling 6,339 of its wireless towers to Vertical Bridge for $3.3 billion, a move aimed at reducing costs and enabling greater flexibility in network optimization.
• Vodafone Embraces Google Cloud and AI: Vodafone has signed a significant 10-year deal with Google, exceeding $1 billion, to expand AI-powered services and devices for consumers and enterprise customers. This partnership will leverage

Thank you for listening!
-Mario Mejia