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SSI Live Podcast – Ep 124 – The Selective Service System
In this episode of SSI Live, Major Brennan Deveraux interviews Dr. Michael Lynch on his involvement with the Selective Service System. The conversation explores the history of the military draft and the contemporary challenges of implementing a modern-day draft to support a large-scale war.
John Deni
Hello and welcome to SSI Live. You’ve long known the Strategic Studies Institute, or SSI, at the US Army War College, as the go-to location for issues related to national security and military strategy, with an emphasis on geostrategic analysis. SSI conducts strategic research and analysis to support the US Army War College curricula; assist and inform Army, DoD, and US government leadership; and serve as a bridge to the wider strategic community. Now, we are bringing you access to SSI analyses, scholars, and guests, through this, the SSI Live podcast series. Thanks for joining us.
Brennan Deveraux
Welcome back to SSI Live. I’m your host, Major Brennan Deveraux. Still waiting on John Deni and his awesome book that’s going to come out of that sabbatical. I’m joined today by Dr. Mike Lynch. He’s a national security research professor with me over at the Strategic Studies Institute. Mike covers a myriad of topics in his research, from homeland defense to force structure and mobilization. He retired from the US Army in 2005 and subsequently earned his PhD in history at Temple University.
For this conversation, we’re going to be exploring the Army War College’s relationship with the Selective Service System and Mike’s role as the liaison to this often-overlooked organization. Mike, before we jump into the Selective Service System, can you just talk to me a little bit about your background and how that helped you land this unique role of working with the Selective Service System?
Mike Lynch
Sure, Brennan, and thanks for the opportunity to do this. I started researching mobilization when I arrived here as a civilian in 2005. But it actually goes back before that. My interest goes back before that. In 2002, while I was still on active duty, I was fortunate enough to attend a conference sponsored by the US Army War College. I was not at the War College at the time.
But it was in Paris. And it brought together the armies of the United States. Great Britain, France, and Germany. And the purpose of that was to help Germany figure out how to end conscription. It’s interesting that Germany is now thinking about restarting conscription, but from that it gave me an interest in in mobilization generally in conscription specifically.
Deveraux
Okay. So, you had a, a couple of opportunities. You started looking at mobilization when you got here as a civilian research professor, historian. Talk to me about how you then kind of stumbled your way into working specifically with the Selective Service System.
Lynch
So I had done a couple of studies on how the Army has mobilized in the past. And one issue was the Army’s strategic planning guidance of 2012 seemed to be very inadequate in terms of what we would need to do to build a large army. So, I did a, a study called “The Myths of Expansibility,” and sort of surveyed how we’ve expanded in the past.
And that was in 2014. And then in 2024, purely by happy chance, I happened to be walking into the, to Root Hall, the US Army War College school building, and I ran into a group of people who were having a conference in one of our multi-purpose rooms. I actually helped somebody find the room, and it turned out that it was the Selective Service System staff here, doing an offsite at Carlisle Barracks in preparation for a Gettysburg staff ride.
When I discovered that it was the Selective Service System, I talked to them a little bit about the research I had done in the past, and they got very interested and it rolled on from there. They invited me to several workshops and those kinds of things.
Deveraux
So real quick, if we could take a step back. The Selective Service System. So not an organization too many people are that familiar with, maybe the older generation for different reasons. For a lot of the younger generation, that’s, a thing of the past, right? We’re an all-volunteer force. There is no draft. Can you talk a little bit about the Selective Service System? Kind of what it is, who it falls under? Because this was a unique thing for me to learn. I thought it was different than it is. And then kind of how it still exists today. And what its purpose is.
Lynch
Right. And that, that’s a great question, Brennan, because, to be perfectly honest, I did not know that we still had a Selective Service System until I ran into it. I thought that would be generated in, in case of war or whatever. But the Selective Service System, going back throughout the history of the 20th century wars, particularly World War Two and forward, the Selective Service System is the organization that runs the draft to conscript people to go into the military.
Now its current form is very small. I don’t know what the total number of Selective Service employees is, but it is very, very small. And it’s designed to expand, to much larger in the event that we go to, go to a draft. It is a standalone organization, does not belong to the Department of War. And it is a, as we would say in the military, it’s a direct report to the president, so.
Deveraux
And I think we at least have some aspect of it exists, it’s this nebulous thing because all young men, and I specifically used the word men because it’s still, I know that’s been, are still required to register. I remember having to do this as a thing, right? You register when you turn 18, it comes up in forms later ensuring that you did register, you know, 20 years ago for a, and I joke because I’m in the Army.
So yes, I registered. But also like, “don’t worry about it.” I did my paperwork, right. So, it at least exists and I think they’re, they’re moving to a more electronic aspect of how they do things from, you know, when I first registered. But it’s kind of existed there in the background. I don’t think many people think about it because we’re not thinking about a draft, which is a scary concept.
But if we look at what’s going on in Europe with the war in Ukraine, the type of casualties we could have in a large-scale war, that, you know, hopefully we never have to fight, the all-volunteer force might not be enough to get through it.
Lynch
That’s correct.
Deveraux
Okay. And so one of the first things you got to do with the Selective Service is actually go out to their organization and kind of see, I want to say how the old-school, lottery works, but I think it’s fairly similar today than it was way back when.
Lynch
It is, it is. And it’s important to note, Brennan, that, even though we’re talking about the draft, the draft requires an act of Congress to restart. So, this is background study and research in case. But there is no push to restart a draft. But you’re correct. I was invited to go to what the Selective Service System calls a lottery exercise. And that is literally how the lottery process operates. The lottery being what, how we generate the names.
Now, I can break this down. One of the things that the Selective Service is required to do is provide a fair and transparent process because of abuses in the past of the deferment system, that sort of thing. It’s important to provide a fair and transparent process. So there are observers there who will watch everything that happens. And it’s ultimately fair because it’s simply based on birthdays. The lottery is called a lottery exercise because they use lottery machines that are identical to the state lottery machines that you may see on Friday night drawing Powerball numbers, a series of…
Deveraux
Like the bingo wheel.
Lynch
Exactly, exactly.
Deveraux
It’s for that for those that don’t necessarily do the lottery, that’s all I’m envisioning is someone spinning the giant cage and pulling out the ball.
Lynch
That’s essentially it. And in that case, there are two giant cages. In one giant cage. You have all the birthdays from January 1st to December 31st, including February 29th. And then in the other giant cage, you have 366 balls. So you would turn those cages and two balls come out. And for instance, my birthday is May 28th, and if that that ball comes out of one cage and the other cage, the ball comes out 15, then I would be in the 15th draft call for that period.
Deveraux
Okay. No. That’s neat. To your point, no one’s reinstituting the draft soon, right? But this has been going on consistently. I mean, for generations, correct? Since before, Vietnam, which is when we really associate ourselves with the draft and I think, if I have my history right, there’s only about maybe a four-year period once we transitioned out of the draft into an all-volunteer force where we stopped registering, and then, it got reinstituted, I believe that was under President Ford.
Lynch
Correct. The registration stopped in 1975, and then that was, President Ford, and then, restarted, I believe it was under President Ford, but then stopped again and then restarted again under President Carter. It was re-stopped and started for a brief period of time, but registration was restarted in time for me to register in 1980.
And then, it lapsed for, a few months or a year and then came back in in 1981. And to your point, when I was in regular Army basic training as a private at Fort Dix, New Jersey, in May of 1981, one of the pieces of mail my mother sent me was a reminder from Select...
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By U.S. Army War College Public AffairsIn this episode of SSI Live, Major Brennan Deveraux interviews Dr. Michael Lynch on his involvement with the Selective Service System. The conversation explores the history of the military draft and the contemporary challenges of implementing a modern-day draft to support a large-scale war.
John Deni
Hello and welcome to SSI Live. You’ve long known the Strategic Studies Institute, or SSI, at the US Army War College, as the go-to location for issues related to national security and military strategy, with an emphasis on geostrategic analysis. SSI conducts strategic research and analysis to support the US Army War College curricula; assist and inform Army, DoD, and US government leadership; and serve as a bridge to the wider strategic community. Now, we are bringing you access to SSI analyses, scholars, and guests, through this, the SSI Live podcast series. Thanks for joining us.
Brennan Deveraux
Welcome back to SSI Live. I’m your host, Major Brennan Deveraux. Still waiting on John Deni and his awesome book that’s going to come out of that sabbatical. I’m joined today by Dr. Mike Lynch. He’s a national security research professor with me over at the Strategic Studies Institute. Mike covers a myriad of topics in his research, from homeland defense to force structure and mobilization. He retired from the US Army in 2005 and subsequently earned his PhD in history at Temple University.
For this conversation, we’re going to be exploring the Army War College’s relationship with the Selective Service System and Mike’s role as the liaison to this often-overlooked organization. Mike, before we jump into the Selective Service System, can you just talk to me a little bit about your background and how that helped you land this unique role of working with the Selective Service System?
Mike Lynch
Sure, Brennan, and thanks for the opportunity to do this. I started researching mobilization when I arrived here as a civilian in 2005. But it actually goes back before that. My interest goes back before that. In 2002, while I was still on active duty, I was fortunate enough to attend a conference sponsored by the US Army War College. I was not at the War College at the time.
But it was in Paris. And it brought together the armies of the United States. Great Britain, France, and Germany. And the purpose of that was to help Germany figure out how to end conscription. It’s interesting that Germany is now thinking about restarting conscription, but from that it gave me an interest in in mobilization generally in conscription specifically.
Deveraux
Okay. So, you had a, a couple of opportunities. You started looking at mobilization when you got here as a civilian research professor, historian. Talk to me about how you then kind of stumbled your way into working specifically with the Selective Service System.
Lynch
So I had done a couple of studies on how the Army has mobilized in the past. And one issue was the Army’s strategic planning guidance of 2012 seemed to be very inadequate in terms of what we would need to do to build a large army. So, I did a, a study called “The Myths of Expansibility,” and sort of surveyed how we’ve expanded in the past.
And that was in 2014. And then in 2024, purely by happy chance, I happened to be walking into the, to Root Hall, the US Army War College school building, and I ran into a group of people who were having a conference in one of our multi-purpose rooms. I actually helped somebody find the room, and it turned out that it was the Selective Service System staff here, doing an offsite at Carlisle Barracks in preparation for a Gettysburg staff ride.
When I discovered that it was the Selective Service System, I talked to them a little bit about the research I had done in the past, and they got very interested and it rolled on from there. They invited me to several workshops and those kinds of things.
Deveraux
So real quick, if we could take a step back. The Selective Service System. So not an organization too many people are that familiar with, maybe the older generation for different reasons. For a lot of the younger generation, that’s, a thing of the past, right? We’re an all-volunteer force. There is no draft. Can you talk a little bit about the Selective Service System? Kind of what it is, who it falls under? Because this was a unique thing for me to learn. I thought it was different than it is. And then kind of how it still exists today. And what its purpose is.
Lynch
Right. And that, that’s a great question, Brennan, because, to be perfectly honest, I did not know that we still had a Selective Service System until I ran into it. I thought that would be generated in, in case of war or whatever. But the Selective Service System, going back throughout the history of the 20th century wars, particularly World War Two and forward, the Selective Service System is the organization that runs the draft to conscript people to go into the military.
Now its current form is very small. I don’t know what the total number of Selective Service employees is, but it is very, very small. And it’s designed to expand, to much larger in the event that we go to, go to a draft. It is a standalone organization, does not belong to the Department of War. And it is a, as we would say in the military, it’s a direct report to the president, so.
Deveraux
And I think we at least have some aspect of it exists, it’s this nebulous thing because all young men, and I specifically used the word men because it’s still, I know that’s been, are still required to register. I remember having to do this as a thing, right? You register when you turn 18, it comes up in forms later ensuring that you did register, you know, 20 years ago for a, and I joke because I’m in the Army.
So yes, I registered. But also like, “don’t worry about it.” I did my paperwork, right. So, it at least exists and I think they’re, they’re moving to a more electronic aspect of how they do things from, you know, when I first registered. But it’s kind of existed there in the background. I don’t think many people think about it because we’re not thinking about a draft, which is a scary concept.
But if we look at what’s going on in Europe with the war in Ukraine, the type of casualties we could have in a large-scale war, that, you know, hopefully we never have to fight, the all-volunteer force might not be enough to get through it.
Lynch
That’s correct.
Deveraux
Okay. And so one of the first things you got to do with the Selective Service is actually go out to their organization and kind of see, I want to say how the old-school, lottery works, but I think it’s fairly similar today than it was way back when.
Lynch
It is, it is. And it’s important to note, Brennan, that, even though we’re talking about the draft, the draft requires an act of Congress to restart. So, this is background study and research in case. But there is no push to restart a draft. But you’re correct. I was invited to go to what the Selective Service System calls a lottery exercise. And that is literally how the lottery process operates. The lottery being what, how we generate the names.
Now, I can break this down. One of the things that the Selective Service is required to do is provide a fair and transparent process because of abuses in the past of the deferment system, that sort of thing. It’s important to provide a fair and transparent process. So there are observers there who will watch everything that happens. And it’s ultimately fair because it’s simply based on birthdays. The lottery is called a lottery exercise because they use lottery machines that are identical to the state lottery machines that you may see on Friday night drawing Powerball numbers, a series of…
Deveraux
Like the bingo wheel.
Lynch
Exactly, exactly.
Deveraux
It’s for that for those that don’t necessarily do the lottery, that’s all I’m envisioning is someone spinning the giant cage and pulling out the ball.
Lynch
That’s essentially it. And in that case, there are two giant cages. In one giant cage. You have all the birthdays from January 1st to December 31st, including February 29th. And then in the other giant cage, you have 366 balls. So you would turn those cages and two balls come out. And for instance, my birthday is May 28th, and if that that ball comes out of one cage and the other cage, the ball comes out 15, then I would be in the 15th draft call for that period.
Deveraux
Okay. No. That’s neat. To your point, no one’s reinstituting the draft soon, right? But this has been going on consistently. I mean, for generations, correct? Since before, Vietnam, which is when we really associate ourselves with the draft and I think, if I have my history right, there’s only about maybe a four-year period once we transitioned out of the draft into an all-volunteer force where we stopped registering, and then, it got reinstituted, I believe that was under President Ford.
Lynch
Correct. The registration stopped in 1975, and then that was, President Ford, and then, restarted, I believe it was under President Ford, but then stopped again and then restarted again under President Carter. It was re-stopped and started for a brief period of time, but registration was restarted in time for me to register in 1980.
And then, it lapsed for, a few months or a year and then came back in in 1981. And to your point, when I was in regular Army basic training as a private at Fort Dix, New Jersey, in May of 1981, one of the pieces of mail my mother sent me was a reminder from Select...