Standard Chartered India - Money Insights

Tune in to listen to our latest outlook on fixed income and the INR, in light of the RBI's currency measures and the October'26 Monetary Policy Committee outcomes. 

Speaker:

Shaily Gang

Chief Investment Strategist

In this week's episode of The Week That Was, we break down key global and domestic market developments:

• Global Markets: Oil rose about 2.4% to around $105/bbl as Iran stepped up attacks on tankers around the Strait of Hormuz, while euro area inflation climbed to 3.8%, its fastest pace since September 2023. The Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia over the weekend added fresh uncertainty.
• India Macro & Economic Data: The RBI raised the repo rate by 25bps to 5.50%, its first hike since February 2023, shifted to a calibrated tightening stance and announced new measures to support the rupee. September CPI inflation rose to 5.54% from 4.83%, with food inflation at 7.74%.
• Domestic Equities & Sectors: The Nifty and Sensex snapped an eight-week losing streak, rising 0.4% and 0.8%. Telecom and FMCG led the gains, while Metals and Realty were the biggest laggards as higher rates weighed on sentiment.

Speaker:

Michelle Castellino

Investment Strategist 

Tune in to understand why we are still overweight India equity markets despite the recent macro headwinds and broader market weakness. 

Speaker:

Shaily Gang

Chief Investment Strategist

In this week's episode of The Week That Was, we break down key global and domestic market developments:

• Global Markets: The US 10-year Treasury yield stayed elevated near 5.27%, close to its highest level in nearly two decades, even as oil prices eased to around $102/bbl after crude exports from the Middle East improved and the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels from emergency reserves; US jobs data came in soft, with September payrolls at just 29,000 and August revised down to 133,000.
• India Macro & Economic Data: India's Manufacturing PMI jumped to a seven-month high of 55.1 in September, GST collections grew 14.7% YoY, and industrial production rose 8% YoY in August, even as the fiscal deficit widened to about 42% of the full-year budget estimate.
• Domestic Equities & Sectors: The Nifty and Sensex declined as the global bond selloff and elevated crude pressured sentiment and FIIs stepped up outflows; Auto led sector declines on weak September sales, while IT was the lone gainer.

Speaker:

Michelle Castellino

Investment Strategist 

In this week's episode of The Week That Was, we break down key global and domestic market developments:

• Global Markets: The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.2%, its highest since June 2007, as resilient US data and elevated oil prices kept pressure on rates; crude oil surged toward $107/bbl after a deadlock in US-Iran talks stoked fears of disruption through the Strait of Hormuz.
• India Macro & Economic Data: India's Index of Core Industries grew 4.8% YoY in August, while the crude oil import bill surged nearly 48% YoY to almost $75 billion on elevated global prices; the ADB raised India's FY27 growth forecast to 7.0% from 6.6%, citing strong public investment, resilient services and robust electronics exports.
• Domestic Equities & Sectors: The Nifty and Sensex fell to near six-month lows on the oil spike and global yield pressures, even as FIIs stayed net buyers; Banks and Energy led the declines while Metals was the only sector to close higher.

Speaker:

Michelle Castellino

Investment Strategist 

In this week's episode of The Week That Was, we break down key global and domestic market developments:

• Global Markets: The Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75-4.00% — its first hike since 2023 — while the BoJ hiked to a three-decade high of 1.25% and the BoE held steady, marking the first time on record that the Fed, ECB and BoJ all hiked within the same month.
• India Macro & Economic Data: Retail inflation rose to 4.82% and the trade deficit narrowed on strong export growth, while the RBI conducted its first net open-market bond sale since 2017 to drain surplus liquidity built up from record FCNR(B) inflows.
• Domestic Equities & Sectors: The Nifty and Sensex fell on crude and global yield pressures, with Telecom being the weakest performer, Banks, Realty and Auto also pressured by rising rates, while FMCG and Pharma led gains as defensive plays.

Speaker:

Michelle Castellino

Investment Strategist 

In this week's episode of The Week That Was, we break down key global and domestic market developments:

• Global Markets: A stronger-than-expected August payrolls print revived Fed rate-hike bets and pulled US equities lower, while renewed US-Iran strikes drove Brent up nearly 8% on the week.
• India Macro & Economic Data: Q1FY27 GDP grew 7.8% on the new 2022-23 base, powered by capex and exports, while the RBI's dollar-rupee swap facility drew over USD 136 billion in inflows.
• Domestic Equities & Sectors: The Nifty and Sensex fell for the week on crude and global yield pressures, with Auto the weakest sector and Energy the only gainer, though Friday's session snapped a four-day losing run.

Speaker:

Michelle Castellino

Investment Strategist 

In this week’s episode of The Week That Was, we break down key global and domestic market developments:

• Global Markets: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s debut Jackson Hole speech kept a rate hike on the table, triggering a bear-flattening in US yields, a stronger dollar, and a pullback in gold, while the S&P 500 ended marginally lower.
• India Macro & Economic Data: Industrial production moderated but stayed resilient, asset monetisation progress was strong, and forex reserves climbed to a record USD 729 billion.
• Domestic Equities & Sectors: The Nifty and Sensex fell for a third straight week on Middle East and Fed-driven caution, even as Metals, IT, and Pharma led sector gains and broader markets outperformed.

Speaker:

Michelle Castellino

Investment Strategist 

In this week’s episode of The Week That Was, host Michelle Castelino breaks down key global and domestic market developments:

• Global Markets: The US Treasury announced plans to double its long-term debt buyback operations to at least $4 billion per operation, following a brief spike in the 30-year yield above 5.3%. The move offered mild relief to bond markets and the dollar, though its overall impact is expected to stay limited.
• India Macro & Domestic Equities: Domestic activity data showed a mixed picture, with core industries growth moderating even as the unemployment rate eased to a four-month low. Indian benchmarks fell for a second straight week, with the Nifty and Sensex both lower, pressured by rising crude oil prices and escalating Iran-US tensions. IT and FMCG led sectoral declines, while Metals, Realty, and Banks held up better.
• Bonds & Gold: Indian bond yields rose over the week amid renewed inflation concerns, while gold extended its rally.

Speaker:

Michelle Castellino

Investment Strategist 

In this week’s episode of The Week That Was, host Michelle Castellino breaks down key global and domestic market developments:

• ​Global Markets: Global equities ended the week on a positive note, supported by lower-than-expected US CPI inflation data and easing recession concerns, which fueled strong gains across tech and growth sectors in the US and Europe.
• ​India Macro & Economic Data: Domestic economic indicators signaled continued resilience, highlighted by cooling retail inflation figures and steady industrial output performance.
• ​Domestic Equities & Capital Flows: Indian benchmark indices maintained upward momentum, driven by widespread buying across IT, banking, and consumer sectors. Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) inflows turned net positive, supporting local bond yields and market stability.

Speaker:

Michelle Castellino

Investment Strategist