Stansberry Investors MarketCast

On episode 43 of the Stansberry's Investors Marketcast, Scott Garliss, John Gillin, and Greg Diamond recap last week's market dump, and give their thoughts on the FAANG trade losing $1 trillion in value. John explains why he's expecting another volatile week.

Scott and John discuss the tension between the EU and Italy, with the EU shooting down Italian budget proposals not once but twice. Scott explains why neither side of this negotiation wants to go to the worst-case scenario, but a temporary standoff between the two sides is necessary.

Moving onto Brexit, Scott recaps the big news of the weekend – that Britain and the EU have agreed to a deal. Scott explains why the next step, approval from the UK's parliament, could be the hardest step. Scott notes that two major sticking points in negotiations, the Irish border and the state of Gibraltar, were overcome.

Greg explains why the EU isn't working, and how the EU is the reason Brexit is happening. Greg warns of an exodus of countries, potentially causing the EU to crumble.

The big market mover into the end of the year is President Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi. Scott and John worry that, with many expecting some sort of agreement, that there could be too much riding on this meeting. President Trump has not backed down from his tariff threats, so if the meeting comes and goes without an agreement, markets could fall.

On Episode 42 of the Stansberry's Investors Marketcast, your hosts begin by recapping last week's selloff. John talks Apple's production cuts, and why it weighed on tech. Oil continues to fall, marking its sixth straight down week.

John and Scott discuss the most recent comments from trade representatives in the U.S. and China, and how each comment seems to contradict the one before it. Scott tells listeners why the Democrats winning the house could make trade negotiations even messier.

Scott asks Greg about what levels he's seeing in the market, and Greg explains why we need a year-end rally to continue this bull market. John and Scott discuss emerging markets recent bounce back, and John expresses optimism in emerging markets if a China deal gets done.

The hosts discuss Apple's production cuts, and how its weighing on tech and growth names. Scott thinks that people are too scared, and too quick to sell on the bad news. Greg explains how he thinks Apple can overcome slowing iPhone sales.

John asks Scott why the long oil trade unwound, and Scott explains that the recent spike in natural gas is a big reason for crude's fall.

This week's Stansberry's Investors Marketcast begins with host John Gillin recapping the market's "oversold bounce." John explains why the Dow was the real leader of the week, and how the other major indexes tagged along for the ride.

Greg and Scott debate the Fed's November decision to leave rates unchanged. Scott says that the decision should not have come as a surprise because the Fed has said a hike in December is going to happen, despite President Trump's attempts to influence the Fed's policy. Greg questions why the Fed would raise rates with technology names already struggling in a higher interest rate environment.

Scott notes how the China standoff is the biggest problem for tech and says that some companies are even considering moving suppliers out of China for good. With the midterm elections over, Scott and John ask if the gridlock in the Senate could delay further tariffs.

John asks Greg for his market outlook, and Greg says that the market's technicals are painting an ugly picture. One of the biggest problems for the market is the growth stocks that have led the bull market are now seeing the growth picture fall apart. He points out several key levels that need to hold for this bull market to continue.

Scott closes the podcast by asking listeners to chime in on whether or not the Fed has gone too far with its rate hikes.

In this week's episode, your Stansberry's Investors Marketcast hosts recap last week's market rebound, led by easing trade tensions and good earnings reports. John briefly recaps why retail is enjoying a renaissance. 

John and Scott discuss earnings season, with 80% of S&P 500 companies having reported quarterly results so far. John notes that earnings have surpassed expectations. Scott says this is a reason to continue investing in the U.S. and points out that the S&P 500 is still undervalued compared to its 5-year average. 

John thinks that midterms are setting up well for a market move and gives his prediction for what markets will do if we get a red or blue wave. Greg explains why moves around Brexit and the 2016 presidential election could foreshadow higher volatility in the coming weeks. 

Moving on to the China headlines from last week, Scott and John discuss why the markets breathed a sigh of relief that negotiations were ongoing. Scott explains why all eyes are on China and that negotiations are the single most important thing to the market. 

John and Greg discuss Apple's quarterly earnings, and Greg explains why the results weren't as big of a disappointment as everyone thinks. Greg notes that Apple is barely holding on as the FAANG trade breaks down. 

John and Greg wrap up by discussing the current market technical. Greg tells listeners what levels need to hold in order for this bull market to continue higher, and explains why higher volatility this week could create a great buying opportunity. He says that after midterms, all eyes will be on the G-20 summit at the end of the month. 

On this week's Stansberry Investors Marketcast, John Gillin and Greg Diamond discuss last week's "brutal" markets. All the major indices suffered big losses, and bear markets are popping up everywhere. As John explains, 40% of S&P 500 companies are now in bear market territory, falling 20% from their highs.

John and Greg go over last week's economic data, and John explains why earnings and U.S. GDP are still painting a pretty good picture of the U.S. economy. Greg explains why a second round of tax cuts could become a short-term catalyst and could help relieve some of the trade hurt.

John lists some problem areas around the markets, and he and Greg explain why semiconductors look so weak. Greg calls semis a "dumpster fire," and says that the sector's price action is mirroring that of the 2000 bubble. However, he says that President Trump's November meeting with Chinese President-for-life Xi could become a catalyst for the sector to turn around.

Going forward, Greg is focused in on the market's reaction to the midterm elections. Greg sees volatility easing after the elections settle, possibly forming a market bottom into a year-end rally. John and Greg list a few catalysts that could really get markets going over the next two months

Your Marketcast hosts begin this week by discussing last week's "mixed" markets, and John notes how the markets are still incredibly volatile. 

Scott and John discuss China's recent bounce back, and Scott tells listeners how China is trying to support its markets and boost its economy.

Greg says that these measures are China's way of appearing to be an increasingly capitalist country, while remaining Communist. John points to the dollar/yuan relationship as a red flag and notes what levels would bring on a crash. 

John and Greg discuss what to expect from midterms and how the markets would react if the Democrats take the House or Senate. Greg explains why the release of "Tax Cut 2.0" before midterms could be a brilliant move for Republicans, and gives his prediction for how markets could soar higher if it's passed. 

John and Scott discuss the situation in the Middle East, and Scott explains why we haven't seen oil prices jump as tensions escalate between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Scott brings up that these tensions could affect some tech names, as the Saudis are large investors in one of the biggest tech funds out there.

John and Greg discuss the weakening homebuilder sector, and John explains why rising rates and home prices are scaring some investors off. 

Greg says that we are not in a "bubble," but why this slowdown could bring on a sideways trend for these companies. 

John closes by reminding listeners to tune in for the Melt Up webinar on October 24, calling the event a "must watch."

On this week's Stansberry Investors Marketcast, Scott, John, and Greg recap last week's market turmoil. John begins by saying that spiking Treasury rates were the main culprit, while China tensions did not help.

Scott and Greg discuss how the selloff was driven by the quants, and how they had to sell at each level.

The Fed continuing to raise rates heightened fears of borrow costs, much to the dismay of President Trump. Scott, John, and Greg discuss how this may lead to "misallocation" of resources. 

John talks about the dangers of a "herd mentality" and Scott explains how tech's big year has investors ignoring bear markets in many other parts of the economy. 

Scott talks about how the escalating U.S. – Saudi Arabia sanctions could push oil higher, and that Saudi Arabia may pull investments made through its tech Vision Fund. 

Scott and Greg discuss the recent IMF meeting, and Scott explains why the IMF is cautious on global growth (hint: think trade wars). Scott also says that a possible IMF intervention into the matter would not affect the way President Trump approaches the negotiations. 

Moving on to earnings, John discusses why emerging market worries overshadowed the start of banking earnings last week. Scott explains why he thinks the economy is still picking up, but that the stock market move higher is going to be "dicey."

John and Scott discuss the value vs growth argument, and John advocates for staying in growth name, especially fintech and cybersecurity names. 

The Marketcast hosts close the podcast by covering next week's "Meltinar," which has an incredible speaker list.  

This week, Scott, John and Greg discuss last week's market movers, with the Dow remaining flat while the S&P 500 ticked downward. Small caps, the FAANG trade, and global markets were hit hard, and money found its way into financial names.

Bond yields spiked last week on the back of strong economic data and positive commentary about the economy's strength. Almost all Fed speakers talked up growth last week, but Scott says that the comments that stood out came from Chairman Jerome Powell.

Powell said that the Fed has a long way to go to achieve its goal of neutral interest rates. Markets didn't like this, as it caused uncertainty as to how the Fed views "neutral."

Greg talks about the problems he has with the Fed, and explains how they might not get the best read on the economy.

Moving on to Italy and the EU, Scott and John discuss how the two are battling it out over Italy's proposed budget. Scott talks about how Italy could leave the EU, and how that would be very problematic for the EU.

John talks about how bad European markets have been recently, especially Germany. John asks Greg if the euro is going to be around in 10 years, and Greg explains why he thinks the euro isn't working and won't last.

Greg talks about how China's spying chips in Apple and Amazon products is "an act of war," and says that he doesn't know how Trump can negotiate with the Chinese, knowing they can't be trusted.

Scott and John discuss a new clause in the revamped NAFTA deal, and how it could mean that China is left on its own. John also says that he doesn't believe that the latest rounds of tariffs is priced into the markets yet, and that could spell trouble when they go into effect in January 2019.

The hosts talk about what it would take to turn around GE, and whether or not GE's dividend will last.

Scott closes the show by talking about earnings, as earnings season gets underway with the big banks on Friday. Scott goes through what to expect, and how analyst expectations could affect the markets.

John and Scott open this week's Stansberry's Investor's Marketcast by talking about this week's Stansberry Vegas conference. John runs through an awesome lineup of speakers and Scott offers free hugs for anyone that stops by.

Scott breaks down the two big moves the Fed made last week, from raising rates 25 basis points (expected) to removing accommodative language from their outlook going forward (still no huge

surprise). "The bigger thing was what Howell had to say about the economy… he's saying that the economy really is in a sweet spot right now."

John and Scott discuss the trade fight continuing…. Between the U.S. and Canada. John talks about how the U.S. is putting the pressure on Canada, and why Canada should NOT be turning down any meetings with the U.S.

Scott talks about why the market isn't sensing anything dire out of these trade talks, yet. From trade wars to Paul Manafort, "It's amazing how fast these things fall off the front page."

John predicts (ahead of Tuesday's breaking trade deal news) that Canada and Mexico will "of course do a deal with us – they're our biggest trading partners." Scott dissects the strange alleged canceled meeting between Trump and Trudeau.

With earnings season around the corner, Scott reveals the average lowball estimate analysts have made for earnings growth, and why this quarter could be even bigger than the 19% growth they're forecasting. and John talk about changing expectations for growth on Wall Street, and discuss how investors are rotating back into riskier plays to chase big gains.

"What we could be looking at, by the time this quarter finishes, we could be looking at 23.3% earnings growth." This would be the third best quarter since 2010 – but the two quarters better than this would be the two earlier this year.

Scott points to Steve Sjuggerud's "Melt Up" thesis, and he and John pinpoint the sectors positioned to rip higher with the market.

John closes by asking Scott about pot stocks, and compares them to the crypto craze of late 2017-early 2018. He also asks when will we see companies add "marijuana" to their names to ride the wave.

After a week where the Dow and S&P 500 hit new records, John gives Scott kudos for calling it as he breaks down the rally by sector. Financials, energy, and industrials led the way while tech was off slightly. 

Scott takes the kudos – and argues that the rally isn't over yet. "We're going even higher."

The 10-year ticked up slightly past 3%, which is fuel for any rally since in John's words "financials love that – that's net interest income, net interest margin, that falls right to the bottom line."

Scott explains why recent dollar weakness could propel U.S. multinational companies, and the S&P 500, higher. "If the dollar is gonna sell off, it's gonna enable emerging market currencies to rally." That's tonic for inflation in emerging economies.

And don't forget – 47% of the revenues for the S&P 500 come from U.S. multinational companies. So as the dollar gets weaker, those companies are in for a boost. "You need to be paying a lot of attention to what the dollar's doing, because it's gonna be a really important indicator for the markets."

John turns to the Fed policy decision to be announced later this week, and why the Fed is hoping for a "soft landing" of 3% growth that will enable a 25-basis point hike.  

Scott games out a scenario where interest rates could be a whopping 75 basis points higher in March than they are today – a massive departure from the near-zero rate regime the Fed put in place for almost all of the last decade. Scott and John discuss quantitative tightening in the U.S. and around the world, and how this will affect the U.S. dollar and emerging markets. 

Reading between the lines of the latest European Central bank maneuverings, Scott makes sense of the ECB's decision to end 30 billion euros per month of bond purchases starting January, and what Mario Draghi's likely successor will be inheriting. 

John asks Scott about the new Apple Watch and the new features that could affect more than just the tech industry. "By having this electrocardiogram in there… I think that is going to be a huge driver for insurance companies."

But it doesn't stop there. 

As Scott, notes, 62% Apple revenue comes from iPods, 13% from services, 11% from Macintosh, and 8.5% from iPad, and 5.5% from "other." Why this could be a game-changer: "If you have a device that could spare doctors from unnecessary tests… isn't there potential for insurance companies to say, 'Why don't we start writing prescriptions for this?'"

John breaks down the latest volley in the trade war with China, and why the markets shrugged at the news of more tariffs last week. 

There's another mania in the stock market – this time with pot stocks. What are investors to do when pot stocks like Tilray, with next to no revenues, have market capitalizations bigger than American Airlines? John calls the valuation in Tilray "baffling" and tells listeners how this is just another example of the flock mentality.

Scott and John close out this week's episode by talking about the upcoming Stansberry Vegas Conference and how it's lineup of great speakers makes it one of the best conferences on or off Wall Street. 

Scott tells listeners how they can follow the conference, and how they can sign up to stream it at Stansberryvegas.com.