State of the State Podcast

MSU Institute for Public Policy and Social Research (IPPSR) Director Matt Grossmann, Professor Emeritus of Economics Charley Ballard, and IPPSR Associate Director Arnold Weinfeld analyze the latest in Michigan politics and economics.

Show Notes

Topics in this episode of the State of the State podcast include negotiations around raising the debt ceiling and Governor Whitmer’s State of the State address.

Conversation Highlights:

(2:17) – “Best case scenario, there is a lot of drama and a lot of headlines and eventually we raise the debt ceiling. Worst case scenario, and we came close to a default in 2011, defaulting on our treasury obligations would be catastrophic for the world economy.”

(4:42) – “Most analysts believe that in 2023 either we will have a soft landing – meaning very slow growth but no actual recession – or a softish landing, meaning a mild recession. Right now, no one is predicting a deep recession.”

(5:47) – “There have been some very highly-publicized layoffs in the tech sector. On the other hand, Taco Bell is looking to hire 25,000 workers and Chipotle is looking to hire 15,000.”

(8:15) – Social Security is wildly popular. Any member of Congress who votes to rip up Social Security should be getting ready to sell their house in January of 2025.”

(15:24) – “A lot of it was the same things that were proposed in the campaign and last year. But now anyone who hears them thinks they have a chance of being enacted because there’s a Democratic legislature for the first time in 40 years. You have unified government and a lot of money.”

(17:15) – “It is kind of amusing that one of the first big acts of a new Democratic legislature is likely to be letting an across-the-board income tax decline to go through.”

(20:35) – “Citizenship doesn’t end when you retire.”

(22:50) – “The research is relatively consistent and finds business tax incentives do not result in major increases in business income or any other outcome that states might be looking for, even accounting for the fact that other states would do it.”

(25:10) – “Historically, most laws still pass with bipartisan support. It’s much more dependent on the state of the economy and the budget than it is on state partisanship.”

(27:22) – Even after all the shrinkage of the automotive sector, Michigan is still more heavily dependent on durable goods and manufacturing than the average state. That means bigger ups and downs for the economy because you can put off buying a car, but you can’t put off buying groceries.”

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This month’s State of the State podcast conversation from Michigan State University's Institute for Public Policy and Social Research focuses on the debt limit. Matt Grossmann, Charley Ballard, and Arnold Weinfeld welcome associate professor of economics Antonio Doblas Madrid to the discussion.

Conversation Highlights:

(1:46) – “The Federal Reserve has been trying for more than a year to slow things down. They’ve had some success. Inflation is not where it was several months ago, but it’s still above their target. There are a lot of indications that the economy is growing more slowly than it was a year ago, but it’s still growing.”

(3:36) – “We’re still at a pretty high level of resources. Compared to the last few years, there is a lot of money and a lot of people asking for that money. The good news about being in the majority during this kind of time is that you can say yes to a lot more people, and that’s usually good for you politically. The bad news is if you say yes with temporary money on a permanent basis, then a few years down the line you have to say no a whole lot more and it can be pretty bad.”

(4:45) – “Surpluses tend to disappear.”

(6:45) – “The United States is one of a group of privileged countries that has always had healthy enough finances that it has never defaulted on its debt. And the U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency. It’s shocking that this debt ceiling situation that keeps coming up over and over threatens to engineer a self-inflicted financial crisis.”

(7:45) – “The debt ceiling is a historical oddity of the United States.”

(9:30) – “The U.S. dollar and U.S. government debt are considered the safest financial assets. It would be similar to the ground shaking.”

(11:26) – “The U.S. Treasury is a whole lot bigger than Lehman Brothers.”

(16:34) – “Most countries when they have a default it’s followed by a pretty deep downturn of economic activity.”

(17:06) – “These are good reasons why policy makers have strong incentives to avoid the default, but that doesn’t mean that you don’t gain strategically from having the leverage that you have to force your opponents to the table.”

(20:55) – “The story was a little bit different in 2010 when Democrats had a big majority and could have gotten rid of the debt limit or extended it. And then there was a sentiment that if Republicans are going to be in charge, they should have ownership of the debt limit. And that was kind of the old politics of the debt limit. ‘I don’t want to vote for it when I’m in the minority so that the other side gets the blame raising the debt limit’ even though it has nothing to do with actually increasing spending. And that was catastrophically dumb.”

(21:56) – “None of us is saying the debt should be allowed to grow without any proportion to the country’s ability to repay.”

(22:57) – “These are debts for expenditures that were already approved years ago and money that has already been spent. These are bills that are due now and not paying them is literally bankrupting the country.”

(30:22) – “There’s not a lot of time unfortunately. The extraordinary measures that Treasury has been taking since 1985 have become par for the course.”

(32:00) – “This is an occasion where Democrats and Republicans have to pass something together.”

Listen to “MSU Today with Russ White” on the radio and through Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your shows.

This month’s State of the State podcast from Michigan State University’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research has Matt Grossmann and Arnold Weinfeld from the institute and emeritus economics professor Charley Ballard discussing the state of the national and Michigan economies, UAW contract talks with the Big 3 automakers, the impact of unions in today’s America, Michigan’s new state budget, population loss, and the recent Supreme Court decision on affirmative action.

Conversation Highlights:

(1:25) – “The economy continues to roll along. Whereas a few months ago I would have said a mild recession is more likely than not. Right now, I would say it’s more likely than not that we kind of skirt the edges of a recession.”

(5:57) – “People are still pretty dour about the economy…”

(10:11) – “A part of it is that our economy is doing pretty well. And that means revenue is coming in reasonably well. That’s the remarkable resilience of the American economy.”

(11:29) “There is an effect of full Democratic control on state spending, but it’s actually a lot smaller than you might expect and much smaller than the year-to-year differences due to the overall state of the economy and share of federal money that gets sent.”

(12:09) – “The actual effect is more often the reverse. The more that state governments are able to pass legislation and move the agenda in their direction, the more likely that in the next election they will lose ground rather than gain ground.”

(14:27) – “Many prognosticators on the national scene have listed Gretchen Whitmer as a potential presidential candidate, and I’m pretty sure she’s aware of that.”

(15:17) – “In policy, this has been a very large shift on the scale of state government year-to-year shifts. That is what you’d expect after a prolonged period of lack of control from a party.”

(16:35) – “Michigan is three percent of the national population and two and a half percent of the national economy. We’re in this little life raft floating upon a gigantic ocean of the worldwide economy. And if those waves are big, they’re going to affect our boat.”

(18:55) – “The population of Michigan hasn’t been dropping steadily in this century, it’s just been astonishingly flat.”

(21:03) – “The overall picture is actually we don’t have a higher rate of college graduates leaving the state. After graduating, what we have is a lower rate of college graduates from elsewhere deciding to move into the state. And that is part of a broader pattern where our issues are not as much from the perspective of young people moving away as we hear in the political debate as we have young people not being attracted to Michigan to move from elsewhere.”

(25:20) – “For one thing, the Supreme Court was more in line with public opinion this term than they were the previous term.”

(27:50) – “Some universities have abandoned legacy admissions. That might, I think in the long run, have more of an effect.”

Listen to “MSU Today with Russ White” on the radio and through Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your shows.

Matt Grossmann and Arnold Weinfeld from Michigan State University’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research (IPPSR) discuss the latest in Michigan and national politics, policy, and the economy on the State of the State podcast, a monthly round up of policy and research for the state of Michigan.

Peter Berg joins the conversation to talk about the UAW strike and its implications moving forward. Berg is a professor of employment relations and director of the School of Human Resources and Labor Relations at MSU.

Conversation Highlights:

(1:12) – “We don’t have a real working majority in the House of Representatives.”

(3:11) – “They have a very small majority. And anytime you have a small majority, you have a few members who can make a difference. And now that we’ve proven that a few members can take down the speaker, that incentivizes everyone else who has an agenda to step forward and disrupt the process.”

(7:57) – “A lot has already been done. This will be right up there with the most changes from the right to the left of any state legislative session of the last 50 years.”

(10:54) – “The vast majority of the folks who are here now, when given the theoretical opportunity to the leave for California or Texas or Chicago, want to stay in Michigan.”

(13:05) – “It is certainly true that young people are more liberal on social issues, but if you ask someone if this is going to make them stay in the state, it’s easy to say yes, this policy makes a difference to me. If you look at the 50-state data and try to associate any set of policy changes with actual migration from state to state, you find zilch, no relation whatsoever between policy of any kind and which way people are moving.”

(16:42) – “We’re closer to the end than the beginning, but it’s really hard to predict how long this will go on.”

(18:07) – “This targeted strike across the three companies was a new approach. I think it’s been effective.”

(20:09) – “The UAW is trying to raise the floor. And they’re trying to extend their reach within the future EV industry world.”

(21:17) – “The UAW needs to transition from this heavy adversarial approach to now that we’re in this, how are we going to work together to achieve those efficiencies so that we all survive? Because the threat is that EV employment is going to be less than internal combustion employment. And that means fewer UAW members. So, great we won all these big increases, but the long term may see membership decline if they don’t come together and work together after this agreement to find a way to make the industry successful for everyone.”

(24:24) – “We’re seeing a lot of labor activism. We’re seeing more strike action because workers right now are in a position of power and they’re exercising that.”

(27:31) – “The view of unions as fighting for social justice and civil rights is the view of a lot of young people…there is a sense that the public is seeing unions differently, and whether that leads to change in some way or more interest in voting for a union and for density numbers to really move, we’d need a change in labor law.”

Listen to “MSU Today with Russ White” on the radio and through Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you listen.

Matt Grossmann, Charley Ballard, and host Arnold Weinfeld discuss Michigan and national politics, policy, and the economy on the monthly State of the State podcast from MSU’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research (IPPSR).

The trio’s guest this month is Nick Pigeon, executive director of the Michigan Campaign Finance Network. It’s a nonpartisan nonprofit organization that seeks to shine the brightest light possible on the role of money in Michigan politics.

Conversation Highlights:

(1:07) – Why did the Michigan Legislature break early?

(3:19) – What are the implications if the Legislature extends their break into the spring?

(4:28) – Do you think we’ll see renewed calls for a part time legislature?

(5:21) – What’s the state of the economy? “It’s been resilient, worker productivity is growing, and gasoline prices are way down.”

(9:45) – What about Michigan’s economy in the next six months to a year?

(11:52) – How does Michigan’s economy compare to other states you’ve visited recently?

(14:32) – If you were President Biden’s political consultant, what would you tell him?

(15:37) – All about the Michigan Campaign Finance Network and their perspective on the recently passed financial disclosure legislation.

(22:59) – Will the new legislation have a positive impact?

(25:42) – What about FOIA, the Freedom of Information Act, for legislators?

(27:22) – “The dream that transparency was going to lead to a more satisfied public has come and gone.”

Listen to “MSU Today with Russ White” on the radio and through Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your shows.

Matt Grossmann and Arnold Weinfeld discuss Michigan and national politics, policy, and the economy on the monthly State of the State podcast from MSU’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research (IPPSR). The podcast is a monthly round up of policy and research for Michigan.

Tony Daunt is executive director of FAIR Maps Michigan. He joins the conversation to discuss the redistricting process in Michigan, the current remapping process, and what brought us to this point.

Conversation Highlights:

(0:32) – What’s the latest in national politics and the presidential race?

(5:58) – An assessment of proposals in Governor Whitmer’s State of the State address and the state of politics and policy in Michigan. “This last year was one of the most productive and ideological movements of public policy that we’ve seen across any state for, like, 50 years. This was an extraordinary move leftward that they accomplished in the first year, and they’re set up to try to do a lot more.”

(9:27) – Economic development, R & D tax credit, and population growth – “The business location packages really don’t impact business decisions. People make business location decisions and then rack up the tax credits.”

(14:27) – Daunt joins the conversation to talk about the remapping process.

(19:50) – What would you rather have seen from the beginning of the redistricting process?

(23:12) – How is the redraw going so far?

(25:36) – What is the role of FAIR Maps Michigan? And what are some of your suggestions moving forward? Where is this headed?

(31:22) – “The commission has been rather defiant about the lawsuit, and I would encourage everyone to see this as an opportunity to correct, by all accounts, the biggest defect in the process. The public remains supportive of the changes, especially the changes to the partisan composition of the relationship between districts and statewide votes. This was the primary citizen concern expressed quite loudly and clearly. But that was ignored by the commission. So rather than see it as a burden imposed by the courts, I would encourage them to see it as a second chance to correct the biggest defect in the process.”

Matt Grossmann, Charley Ballard, and Arnold Weinfeld discuss Michigan and national politics, policy, and the economy on the monthly State of the State podcast from MSU’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research (IPPSR). The podcast is a monthly round up of policy and research for Michigan.

Nura Sediqe is an assistant professor of American politics and public policy at MSU. The group discusses Sediqe’s work in political behavior, race, and ethnic politics, especially as it pertains to Muslim Americans.

Conversation Highlights:

(0:44) – Charley, how’s the economy doing?

(5:24) – Matt, how do you see the economy playing a role in the campaign season?

(8:17) – Why do you think some minority voters are moving to the right?

(12:54) – Where are we on redistricting and the redrawn map?

(15:14) – What’s the state of Michigan’s economy?

(17:35) – Nura joins the conversation with an overview of her research.

(18:56) – Talk about the growth of the Arab and Muslim population in Michigan that is increasingly flexing its political muscle.

(27:23) – How will the conflict in Gaza impact voter preferences?

(29:59) – Michigan has a large population that is Arab but not Muslim. How is that factoring in?

(31:40) – Tell us about your book in development.

Listen to “MSU Today with Russ White” on the radio and through Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your shows.

Matt Grossmann, Charley Ballard, and Arnold Weinfeld from Michigan State University’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research (IPPSR) discuss the latest in Michigan and national politics, policy, and the economy on the State of the State podcast, a monthly round up of policy and research for the state of Michigan.

Peter Berg joins the conversation to talk about the UAW’s recent victory in unionizing a Volkswagen plant in Tennessee and its implications moving forward. Berg is a professor of employment relations and director of the School of Human Resources and Labor Relations at MSU.

Conversation Highlights:

(0:50) – Ballard on the state of the national economy.

(4:29) – Ballard on the state of the Michigan economy.

(6:31) – Michigan is 39th in per capita personal income in the United States.

(9:41) – Grossmann on the latest in politics and how the perception of the health of the economy doesn’t match the perception for many.

(12:55) – What impact will the campus protests have on the election?

(15:16) – How will Gaza impact younger voters?

(17:11) – What factor will the UAW play in domestic politics and this election?

(19:09) – What is the diploma divide?

(21:20) – What is the impact of the UAW’s recent win at Volkswagen?

(23:25) – Will Shawn Fain and the UAW be a political force for President Biden in the election?

(25:24) – What are the UAW’s next targets?

(27:22) – Do you see the UAW win leading to more unionization in other industries?

(29:20) – Is the National Labor Relations Board’s legitimacy being questioned?

Listen to “MSU Today with Russ White” on the radio and through Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your shows.

State of the State is the monthly roundup of policy and research for the state of Michigan from MSU’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research (IPPSR). Arnold Weinfeld is the associate director for the institute. Charley Ballard is an economist at MSU.

This month’s guest is Kimberly Dodd, a veterinarian and virologist with extensive expertise in emerging infectious diseases. She is currently the director of the MSU Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory, or VDL, one of the country's premier veterinary diagnostic laboratories.

Pending board approval, Dodd has been recommended to serve as the new dean of Michigan State University’s College of Veterinary Medicine, effective Aug. 1.

Weinfeld, Ballard, and Dodd discuss the recent news of bird flu in Michigan.

“On this month’s State of the State Podcast, Institute for Public Policy and Social Research Assistant Director Arnold Weinfeld, along with MSU Economist Dr. Charles Ballard discuss the current state of the economy including the factors impacting inflation and what does or does not constitute a recession. The guest this month is Dr. Johannes Bauer, Director of the Quello Center at Michigan State University discussing the new “MOON-Light” project.

Spearheaded by MSU and funded by a $10.5 million federal Broadband Infrastructure Program grant through the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA), the Michigan Open Optical Network – Leveraging Innovation to Get High-Speed Technology (MOON-Light) will lead to equal and open access to broadband services to all Michiganders and can be leveraged to deliver education, healthcare, and employment services. This podcast comes to you from the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research, and WKAR.”