Podcast on the potential for ongoing conflict in Afghanistan absent American forces and since the fall of the Kabul regime to the Taliban. Recorded prior to the ISIS-K terror attack on the Kabul airport that claimed over a dozen American lives. This episode discusses anti-Taliban resistance movements in Afghanistan, with a bit of history.

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Enjoy our Podcast episode on the recent loss of Afghanistan and, how, in our opinion, it is best for the U.S. in the long-term.

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A look back at the Iraq War's beginnings, and the course of conflict there from 2003 to the 18th anniversary in 2021. We also look at the controversial AUMF that provided the legal pretext for the American and Coalition invasion of Iraq.

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China and Russia vs. U.S.-Is the Biden Administration Responding to These Threats?

As of today, March 20, 2021, Joe Biden has been President of the United States for two full months.  Given recent developments in America’s relationships with China and Russia, the two nations closest to the U.S. in near-peer status as world powers, we can see some distinct patterns emerging.

To put it bluntly, and to quote Biden, “America is back!”  Events of the past couple of weeks show that, at least in dealing with China and Russia, Joe Biden seems to be channelling the ghost of Ronald Reagan, for which we say, “It is about time!”

On the China front, the U.S. is now actively engaging with our Indo-Pacific partners, Australia, India, and Japan, who, together with the U.S., forms The Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), which is quickly developing into a viable alliance whose goal is to contain China’s increasingly aggressive military and diplomatic moves in the area.  The recently ended Trump Administration made a lot of noise about opposition and confrontation with China, but usually in more of a lone-wolf way, often ignoring or antagonizing traditional allies.  Biden and his foreign policy team are righting that boat, and are actively working with regional allies to remind China that there are limits to Beijing's behavior.  

Let’s look at recent Chinese actions that are troublesome:

Ongoing military buildup and modernization

Threats to Taiwan (a democracy)

Border clashes with world’s biggest democracy, India

South China Sea tensions

Chinese expansion in SCS islands

Naval aggression against Philippines, Vietnam

Increased repression of minorities, especially against the Uighers of Xinjiang-Genocide

Continued and increasing cyber attacks on U.S. and allied targets. China maintains an active and growing cyber offensive capability in PLA Unit 61398

The diplomatic summit held in Alaska on March 18 and 19th between high-level diplomats from the U.S. and China made headlines for the very un-diplomatic words of anger exchanged there.  Both sides criticized each other publicly, showing that they are far apart on a variety of issues.

This is actually a good thing. The Biden Administration’s opening dialogue with a Chinese government that is showing increasing aggression on multiple fronts in the Indo-Pacific theater, as well as increasing internal repression of her own minority populations, while also engaging in cyber-attacks against her foes.  This is the sort of aggression and bad behavior by an authoritarian regime that demands America stand up to it and show the world that, yes, America is back!

On the Russia front, the recent comments by President Biden in an interview, in which he agreed that Vladimir Putin is a “killer,'' appeared to irritate Mr. Putin, and sparked some harsh talk from Russian media.  Considering that the past four years under Biden’s predecessor, Russia got a pass for a lot of bad behavior, it is refreshing that the U.S. is showing a stony face to Russian adventurism, and calling out Putin for the authoritarian thug that he is.

Recent Russian aggression and concerning actions:

Attacking Ukraine and annexing the Crimea (over the past 7 years)

Propping up the bloody Assad regime in Syria in concert with Iran and Hezbollah

Intervention in the Libyan Civil War

Russian bounties on American troops in Afghanistan

Aggressive statements and actions that worry eastern NATO members in the Baltics and Poland

Recent treats to Bosnia, warning them against joining NATO.

Increased cooperation (military, diplomatic, in space) with China against the West.

Cyber attacks on U.S. and European targets

Russian meddling (often in cyber attacks, hacks, and disinformation campaigns) against U.S. elections in 2016 and 2020, and in European political campaigns.

Looking at all of the actions of China and Russia, it is clear that they see themselves in conflict with the West and with “liberal democracies,” and it is time that the U.S. and the West recognize this for what it is: the opening shots of a new Cold War/great power competition.

As the U.S. re-engages with our allies in both Europe and in Asia, and we start to see signs that the American military is retooling for potential confrontations with China, (especially in light of recent statements by U.S. military officials that they see China possibly attacking Taiwan in the next few years), it is critical that the American people understand that Great Power competition is back, and is a real threat.  America enjoyed a brief respite after the end of the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War as the world’s only true superpower, but that era is now ending.  Both China and Russia are now flexing their muscles internationally, and are making very aggressive noises toward their neighbors (all U.S. allies, by the way), and the U.S. must meet this challenge.  Will the new Biden Administration stand up and meet this challenge?  So far, based on the Biden-Putin interactions, and the recent Alaska summit with China, and the ongoing work with the Quad and NATO, it looks like American policy is at last heading in the right direction.  Hopefully, this means that indeed, America IS back!

Sources and Notes:

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/541133-bidens-america-is-back-pledge-leaves-the-world-unimpressed

https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/07/the-quad-is-poised-to-become-openly-anti-china-soon.html

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/19/china-usa-alaska-477267

https://www.npr.org/2021/03/16/977987292/pentagon-pushes-for-bigger-effort-to-deter-chinas-growing-military-might

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/15/china-growing-threat-taiwan-476170

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit stateoftheworld.substack.com

Al-Asad Air Base Rocket Attack March 3, 2021

(below is the outline of our unscheduled podcast episode on the attack, today, on U.S. forces in Iraq by Shiite Militias).

The same Iraqi base that was attacked by Iran in January, 2020 is hit again

Attackers are ‘unknown” but the MO points to the Iraqi Shiite militias, again.

About a week after U.S. retaliatory strike hit militia facilities in eastern Syria

This new attack:

* Ten rockets, fired from a truck later found east of the base

* No U.S. Military casualties

* One American civilian contractor died of a “cardiac episode” 

* The base’s Counter-Rocket, Artillery, Mortar (C-RAM) missile defensive systems engaged enemy rockets

This is clearly a response to the U.S. retaliatory strike we discussed in our last podcast episode.

WHAT will the Biden Administration do?  All of this is a test on Biden by the Iranians. This comes along in the same venue as the recent drone and missile attacks on Saudi facilities, and the attack on an Israeli civilian ship in the Gulf. Biden and the U.S. MUST respond forcefully!

Sources and Notes:

DOD Press Release on Al-Asad Attack at https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2522600/dod-statement-on-rocket-attack-at-al-asad-by-pentagon-press-secretary-john-f-ki/

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State of the World Podcast episode on:

Biden’s Attack on Shiite Militias in Syria-Background and Analysis

Below you will see the outline of what we talk about today in the State of the World podcast. We hope you like it and find it informative. Please subscribe to our podcast and our newsletter today!

* Intro

* What happened and why

* I will go over what happened, why it happened, and how this matters

* Background

* We are there, officially, against ISIS

* Also, our troops are in Syria against both ISIS and Assad

* Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, Shiite militias support Assad, btw

* Harken back to last year-tit-for-tat clashes

* Militias attacked U.S. bases, killing troops

* U.S. retaliated with airstrikes

* Shiite militia attack on U.S. embassy

* U.S. assassination of Iranian Revolutionary Guards Major General Qasem Soleimani and leader milita Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis

* Soleimani behind many Iranian and Iranian proxy attacks on Western and Israeli targets over the years

* Attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq

* Relatively unknown militias launched rocket attacks on Iraqi bases with U.S. personnel on Feb. 15

* One U.S. contractor was killed, servicemember wounded, others wounded

* Iran is the sponsor for these militias. They act as proxies (in place of, under Iranian direction) in their attacks

* U.S. retaliation

* Feb. 25, 2021-U.S. Airstrike on Shiite Militia in eastern Syria (near Iraq border)

* Some reports have 17 militia killed

* What next?

* Not happening in a vacuum

* Houthi attacks on Riyadh

* Biden Administration took Houthi off terrorist list

* Biden ended U.S. support for Saudi war in Yemen

* This week, attack on an Israeli cargo ship in the Persian Gulf

* Israel blames Iran

* Iran rejects offer of direct talks with the U.S. on the nuclear issue

* The Saudi complication

Get full access to Wars and Conflicts of the World by Historyguy.com at warsandconflictsoftheworld.substack.com/subscribe

Introductory episode to the State of the World Podcast! In this episode (length 7:59) we introduce the theme and goals of this show. If you like it, please sign-up for the podcast and the newsletter!

Get full access to Wars and Conflicts of the World by Historyguy.com at warsandconflictsoftheworld.substack.com/subscribe

Detailing the war in Mali against Jihadist al-Qaida aligned militants and the announcement that the British Army is becoming more heavily involved in this aspect of the international war on Jihadist militancy. See also the Historyguy.com article on this at https://historyguy.com/war-in-mali-the-british-are-coming.html

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Detailing the Israel-Hezbollah Clash on July 27, 2020 that occurred on the Lebanon-Golan Heights border area. See also our article on this event at https://historyguy.com/israel-hezbollah-clash-in-lebanon-golan-area-july-27-2020.html.

 

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We introduce the HIstoryguy.com War and Conflicts News Update Podcast and tell who we are and what this podcast will look like going forward.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit stateoftheworld.substack.com