Steady Wealth Podcast

As the year comes to an end, Serge finds himself asking why investors haven’t capitulated yet. Most people’s portfolios are down, many 20-25%. Usually we’ll see investors lose 30%, and be down an average of 6 months, before they start to panic. Retail investors tend to be more emotional, which unfortunately, causes them to sell at the bottom. To avoid this, we must have perspective. Investors need to have a broad idea of what’s going on in the economy.

On the other hand, many will end up buying at the high. People get so turned off when they sell at the low that they either never get back in the market, or they wait too long. The key is in de-risking before you go too low, and then buying as soon as you notice that initial snapback. To be successful across all types of markets, we must learn how to remain cool when our portfolios are down. One way to gain knowledge that can help you stay a step ahead, is to sign up for market alerts at TheSteadyTrader.com.

What You’ll Learn:

Favorite Quote:

“When we don’t have perspective, that is when we tend to make irrational decisions.” -Serge Berger

When it comes to setting your portfolio up in a high interest rate environment, there’s one move you should consider. Fixed income, and more specifically, bonds. We’re all aware that we have a higher environment of inflation, with things getting more expensive at a faster pace. While it will come back down, and already is, we won’t get back to those ultra low rates anytime soon. Bonds hold the power of compound interest and have gone from 1.4% last year to 3.7-4.45% this year.

So, for having almost risk free bonds that yield a lot, most people are dramatically underweight in bonds. Another promising, and easy, option is ETFs. By using some of these strategies, it’s extremely feasible to create portfolios with 6-8% yield with fixed income. People are hesitant because for the last 5-10 years it didn’t make sense to buy bonds with the great interest rates. To discover what we can do for you, let us look over your portfolio free of charge, just visit BlueMarlinAdvisor.com.

What You’ll Learn

Favorite Quote:

“An allocation into fixed income, almost regardless of age, is highly appropriate.” -Serge Berger

Many people have preconceived notions about investment advisors, or they’ve had bad experiences with them in the past. Today, Serge discusses why many people are opposed to financial advisors, and conversely why they’re a good idea to have. As CIO at Blue Marlin Advisors, Serge has found that once people are better educated, they ultimately find that it makes sense, and don’t know why they didn’t have one before. The main reason people avoid having a financial advisor is that they don’t think they need one, but that’s often the first objection to go with a little more understanding.

As we just closed out a long bull market, a lot of people have gained a false sense of security and think the investment game is easy. Most investors are short sighted however, and don’t know how to put together a well thought out plan. A good, independent investment advisor will help guide you through the whole economic cycle. Many people will get a volatility shock as we get further into a bear market. An investment advisor can’t guarantee you’ll always see returns, sometimes their job will be more about mitigating losses and positioning for future success. At the end of the day, a good, independent investment advisor is an asset that can help you to retire sooner and/or with more money in the bank.

What You’ll Learn:

Favorite Quote:

“Bull markets, ironically, are a very dangerous environment for some people.” -Serge Berger

With 2022 coming to an end, a lot of people, especially those with the classic 60/40 portfolio, will be in for a miserable time. Most people aren’t aware of how their portfolio is performing until they open their end of year statement. With equity markets down 20-30% and more, we’re not seeing nearly the same yields as years past. We’re headed for a lost decade with the S&P, and now’s the time to prepare. History does tend to repeat itself, though, so let's take a look at what we’ve learned from the past.

Lost decades tend to come after an excessive period, which we’ve certainly had. Now we’re seeing low equity returns and high interest rates. While inflation will come down, it won’t get back to those 0% interest rates we once had. De-globalization will also affect markets. So how can we better set ourselves up? There’s a good argument to be made for flipping the classic 60/40 portfolio to a 40/60 model. That would be 40% in equities and 60% in bonds.

What You’ll Learn:

Favorite Quote:

“In order to see where we might be able to go, we have to know where we’ve come from.” -Serge Berger

While seasonal patterns shouldn’t be the sole factor in a market analysis, it is definitely worth including. As we enter the 4th quarter, it’s seasonally a very strong period for the market. On today’s episode, we’re going to look at the probability of a year end rally in the equity markets, and the various factors that contribute to this possibility.

Seasonal patterns are a result of investor behavior, and there is plenty of psychology behind this. In today’s macro focused economy, we have to pay close attention to the global market’s interest rates and currencies. Central banks are still in a tightening phase, and this won’t change right away, but we do expect it to slowly change direction.

What You’ll Learn:

Favorite Quote:

“We are in an environment where the market will front run and price things in, more so than in a simple bear market.” -Serge Berger

The exchange traded fund ARKK is one that many people are familiar with. Unfortunately, it’s also one that isn’t doing particularly well right now. It’s down about 60% from last year, and 80% from it's high. So, let's look at what broader economic environment we need before it’s worthwhile again. To put it simply, we need a market environment that’s much more friendly in terms of money availability.

Liquidity is one of the biggest problems we face in the market right now. With interest rates having gone up over 2,000%, we are not at a point where investors are happy to buy ETFs. Now, we don’t necessarily need feds to cut interest rates, but we do need them to stop raising them and acknowledge the issues happening in the economy. If they do stop raising interest rates, we expect to see an initial rally followed by a decline, then a rate cut. At the end of the day, it’s liquidity in the system that will make ARKK ETFs worthwhile again.

What You’ll Learn:

Favorite Quote:

“At the end of the day, these stocks need an environment more conducive to risk taking.” -Serge Berger

Things look pretty ugly across the board. It’s something Serge was forecasting as far back as spring 2021. Over the past couple weeks, Serge has seen people start to wake up to the fact that the market is bottoming out. People are scared, and they want to know what to do. One concerning trend that Serge has noticed is that people’s portfolios are largely made up of non-yielding assets. People are slowly realizing that we’re in a different market environment where the need for yield is more important. So, what do we do?

There are different ways to generate yield in different markets, but one thing is for sure, you have to have a well structured portfolio. Now is the time to consider bonds as you can get risk free about 4.2% on a 2-year note. Utilities are another great option, as long as you keep in mind that they are still stocks. Of course, you can sell calls against stock, but while that lowers volatility, it’s not complete protection. Try to diversify across different asset classes, such as stocks, fixed income, and commodities.

What You’ll Learn:

Favorite Quote:

“It’s important to have yield, not just growth.” -Serge Berger

Seasonal patterns are a real thing, and the autumn market fears are in full swing. There are just parts of the year where, on average, it just doesn’t pay to be doing anything. That’s not to say the market is about to crash, or that no one is bearish, but individual investors are definitely still too bullish. It could be because we just had a 12 year bear market in equities, but individual investors are still very complacent. Their lack of fear may be because what’s truly going on in the market hasn’t reached headlines yet.

We haven’t seen a single headline of any major company getting into serious trouble, or of funds blowing up. While it’s true that retail investors don’t have as much power to move markets, we can’t deny that over the past few years they have allocated close to a trillion dollars, mostly into risk assessments like equities. In addition, the headlines over the last couple of years have touted the rise of the individual investor. With liquidity being reduced, the global economy stalling quickly, and markets freezing up, it’s not too late to de-risk however.

What You’ll Learn:

Favorite Quote:

“Stock markets crash when they’re over sold, not when they’re over bought.” -Serge Berger

Whether you’re a full time or part time trader, whether you’re just getting started or have been doing this for years, the following topic is fundamentally important. It’s amazing how little is being discussed about having different trading and investing buckets. There will obviously be different strategies based on the time frame you’re looking at. We all know day trading is vastly different from investing.

Serge recommends three different buckets. Bucket one would be for day trading, bucket two for swing trading, and bucket three for investing. In essence, each bucket is its own account. The reason for this is because without this separation, you have no clue where the risks are in your portfolio, and you don’t know where the performance is coming from. If you’re interested in more tips like this, head over to thesteadytrader.com and sign up for the free daily email.

What You’ll Learn:

The psychology behind having different buckets.

The difference between trading and hedging.

How to decide how much to allocate to each bucket.

And much more!

Favorite Quote:

“There is lots of psychology involved in trading and investing.” -Serge Berger

Whether you are new to the market, or you’ve been in it for many years, you likely find yourself asking the same question. That question is, should you trade? Now, we’re not talking about whether a trade is good or bad in general, we’re talking about whether trading is appropriate for you specifically. To answer this question, we need to look at a couple of things, such as why you’re trading to begin with.

One of the worst reasons you can get into trading is that you need money. This puts you in a state of desperation or greed, and neither of those states allow you to be patient or objective. If you’re trading for a valid reason, it’s still imperative to understand that trading is serious business, and should be treated as such. For those serious about trading, visit thesteadytrader.com and sign up for our newsletter for daily tips and tricks.

What You’ll Learn:

Favorite Quote:

“Trading and investing is a very serious endeavor.” -Serge Berger