By Scott Ronalds We met with Edinburgh Partners Limited’s Craig Armour recently for a thorough review of our Global Equity Fund. Craig is an investment partner at EPL and manages the fund. EPL’s investment strategy has been out-of-favour with global markets and as such, performance was a key topic of discussion. Specifically, we reviewed the factors that have led to the poor relative returns (versus the overall market) and whether there have been any changes to the firm’s basic philosophy or decision-making process. It was encouraging to hear that EPL’s philosophy and process hasn’t wavered. The team remains focused on investing in companies they believe are undervalued based on their 5-year earnings potential. As for personnel, the key decision-makers remain in place and have lots of gas left in the tank (the core group of analysts are in their mid 40’s to early 50’s). In the current market environment, EPL is focused on businesses with more cyclical earnings because they are being overlooked by most investors and are trading at attractive valuations. Examples of the types of companies in which EPL is finding value include industrial goods & services (Mitsubishi, ABB, Maersk, Safran), technology (Samsung, SanDisk, Microsoft, Google) and automotive (Bridgestone, Toyota, Dongfeng Motor, Johnson Controls). Conversely, EPL has had only modest investments in defensive stocks, particularly in the last two years. This has hurt the fund’s performance as these stocks have been driving the market’s returns. EPL believes that these more predictable companies (in industries such as health care, food & beverage, and other consumer sectors) are trading at expensive valuations and will generate sub-par returns in the long run. Craig and the team in Edinburgh believe the divergence in valuation between predictable and cyclical stocks is at an extreme based on historic measures (predictability is expensive and cyclical is cheap) and a reversion to the mean is inevitable. They feel risk is being misperceived and the so-called defensive stocks are vulnerable to a re-valuation. Cyclical stocks, on the other hand, will benefit from a more normal investing environment, and will really kick in when the global economy picks up. While we place little weight on short-term returns, it’s heartening to see the portfolio perform better in recent months, with many of the above-noted cyclical stocks being key contributors. Notably, investments in Japan are bearing fruit as share prices in the region are recovering sharply. To bring EPL’s thinking to life, we spent a fair amount of time in our meeting talking stocks. In the video below, Tom and Craig revisit some of the questions from our review, and discuss a few notable holdings. Download, subscribe via iTunes or RSS, or watch now: Management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns.
