Stephanomics

In the not-too-distant future, every time you buy a cup of coffee, someone somewhere might know about it. That’s an unnerving prospect as private companies and central banks experiment with digital currencies. On this week’s podcast, host Stephanie Flanders explores the promising and disconcerting future of Bitcoin and its brethren with Cornell University Senior Professor of Trade Policy Eswar Prasad, author of the forthcoming book “The Future of Money: How the Digital Revolution is Transforming Currencies and Finance.”

Also on this week’s episode, Singapore-based economics reporter Michelle Jamrisko and Hong Kong-based economist Chang Shu explain how low fertility rates in China and elsewhere in Asia are imperiling economies there. And Madrid-based economics reporter Jeannette Neumann visits Valencia to show how Spain and France are trying to help small businesses emerge from the pandemic intact. 

Digital currencies, including cryptocurrencies, pose a “fundamental threat” to central banks around the world because they cut banks out of the picture, Prasad said. Governments are developing their own digital currencies, which could give payment systems extra credibility and boost consumer confidence. But Prasad, a leading expert in this arena, warned that a significant downside to adoption will be privacy: Banks will be monitoring currencies for illicit use and “anything digital is going to be traceable.”

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Criticism from the right regarding U.S. government aid to unemployed workers has intensified of late, with governors in some Republican-leaning states putting an early end to the extra $300 in weekly payments. Their stated intention was that more jobless Americans would look for work if they can’t count on the extra cash. But for some workers—especially parents with young children—barriers to re-entering the labor force remain, and the loss of those additional dollars is adding to their problems. 

On this week’s podcast, Bloomberg economics reporter Olivia Rockeman explains how a lack of childcare options is keeping many women out of the job market. Rather than abusing government aid, many came to rely on the payments while they searched for suitable employment. The U.S. economy had a record 9.2 million open jobs in May, and getting many of those positions filled will require helping working parents find someone to watch their kids. In a second segment, guest host and Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik explores the details and likely effects of President Joe Biden’s sweeping order aimed at promoting competition, with input from reporter Anna Edgerton and University of Tennessee College of Law Professor Maurice Stucke.

Finally, Vietnam-based economics reporter Nguyen Uyen explains why thousands of workers in the Asian export hub are sleeping on factory floors to keep production going during a Covid-19 surge.

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China’s climb to the top of world economic rankings is considered a foregone conclusion in many circles, especially those inside the Chinese Communist Party. But all is not assured: Beijing faces economic and demographic challenges that make surpassing the U.S. less of a no-brainer than one might think.

On this week’s podcast, host Stephanie Flanders steers a lively debate on global domination between Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik and George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre. At present, China’s $14.7 trillion gross domestic product is 70% of America’s $20.9 trillion economy. In China’s best-case scenario, it could overtake its Western rival by 2031, according to research by Orlik and Eric Zhu, a Bloomberg economist based in Hong Kong. In a worst case scenario, a combination of stalled reforms, international isolation and financial crisis could relegate China to permanent second place. Magnus is skeptical of China’s chances of passing the U.S., arguing that its most productive periods were during liberal economic reform, which is hardly the state of affairs under President Xi Jinping. 

In a second segment, London-based economy reporter Lizzy Burden shares how some U.K. corporations are speaking more openly about menopause, something 1 in 4 women around the world may be facing by 2030. A rising number are leaving the workforce as a result, which is prompting business leaders to finally address the sometimes taboo subject. 

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The early days of the pandemic saw a scramble to unleash massive monetary and fiscal bailouts to counter the fallout of a global health crisis and the shutdowns intended to mitigate its damage. Almost a year and a half later, times have changed in many countries, and so has the economic landscape. But are policymakers moving fast enough to unwind their emergency measures?

On this week's podcast Stephanie Flanders is joined by two of the biggest names in the financial world—billionaire investor Ray Dalio and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, who is perhaps the loudest voice of warning when it comes to inflation. Hear their opinions on just how hot the U.S. economy is running, where they think bubbles are building and why they contend that government officials need to take the threat of inflation seriously, and do so right now.

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After more than three decades enforcing its one-child policy, China finds itself with too many elders in need of care and too few caregivers to provide it. Now, the world’s most populous country is getting creative about solving this growing demographic dilemma.

On this week’s podcast, Bloomberg Shanghai Bureau Chief Charlie Zhu shares the surprising rise of “time banking,” where volunteers offer services to older citizens in exchange for credits they can tap when their time comes. Such an endeavor to support both the elderly of today and tomorrow is in stark contrast with the plight of senior citizens in the U.S. Bloomberg Quicktake producer Madison Paglia and Washington-based Senior Editor Alexandre Tanzi explain how more Americans in their 60s and 70s are stuck paying back student loans, and how the problem is getting worse. Later, host Stephanie Flanders interviews New York-based economics reporter Olivia Rockeman on why U.S. restaurants are finally starting to raise prices.

A Japanese woman developed the time banking concept in the 1970s, but it never really caught on. Now China is turning to this mutual assistance model to alleviate a shortage of caregivers in cities like Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou. Chinese aged 60 and above already account for one-fifth of the nation’s population, a number that’s expected to almost double by 2050. Meanwhile, births are at their lowest level in almost six decades. These days, able-bodied citizens have begun assisting the elderly with grocery shopping and navigating new technology. Sometimes, they’re just keeping them company. All the while, these volunteers are banking credits for their own old age.

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The wealthiest nations are emerging from the pandemic stronger than anyone thought, nervous about inflation but otherwise feeling they’ve dodged a bullet. That’s not the case for developing countries, with many still overwhelmed by Covid-19 and certainly unable to dole out stimulus checks. 

On this week’s podcast, World Bank Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart tells host Stephanie Flanders why she worries the recent surge in inflation could be around for awhile, hitting the world’s poorest hardest. Next, Rome-based economics reporter Alessandra Migliaccio reveals the surprising reason Italian tomatoes are rotting in the field. And, Sydney-based economics reporter Michael Heath discusses why critics contend Australia, long a melting pot of cultures, has lost its way on immigration.

Rising prices are spooking investors and policymakers as many economies rebound from the pandemic. In the U.S., a broad measure of inflation jumped 5% in May, its biggest annual gain since 2008. Many central bankers argue inflation is a temporary reaction to a rapidly reheating economy, but Reinhart says she isn’t so sure. Covid-19 was a much larger global shock than the 2008 financial crisis, with bank moves to expand the money supply providing a much bigger multiplier effect. Those factors could stoke longer-lasting inflation this time around.

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The Summer Olympics in Tokyo are little more than a month away, and workers are readying a rebuilt National Stadium for the opening ceremony. But what should be an opportunity for Japan to recharge its economy and lure back tourists is instead a source of apprehension for its 126 million people. On this week’s podcast, Tokyo-based economics reporter Yuko Takeo dives into Japan’s decision to move forward with the Olympics. Then host Stephanie Flanders talks to Paris-based economics reporter William Horobin about the Group of Seven’s landmark corporate tax deal, and U.S.-based economics reporter Olivia Rockeman speaks to Stanford University economist Nicholas Bloom on why the work-from-home revolution could worsen workplace inequality.

Originally, many Japanese had hoped the Olympics could match or even improve upon the 1964 games, which showcased the country’s growing manufacturing clout and led to development of its heralded bullet trains. Now, after a one-year delay, the primary goal is simply to bolster tourism. But the pandemic still overshadows everything: More than 80% of Japanese oppose staging the Olympics, with their biggest fear being that it will become a super-spreader event. Still, for Japan’s leaders, canceling the Games now would be tantamount to declaring they have lost control of the pandemic.

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Canada has a well-earned reputation as the world’s “goody two shoes,” with a progressive record on civil liberties and a history of sticking to its principles in perilous times. The country made it through the 2008 financial crisis relatively unscathed, and more recently its Atlantic provinces were tagged as the New Zealand of North America for their aggressive efforts to contain Covid-19. If you ask Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, she wouldn’t have it any other way.

On this week’s podcast, host Stephanie Flanders talks with this rising star in Canadian politics, one seen as a potential successor to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. A former journalist, Freeland has loudly defended aggressive fiscal moves by Canada and other nations to bolster their economies over criticism they are ignoring the inflation threat. She also argues it took Covid-19 to convince Canada to take child care seriously.

The podcast ends with a look at the surprising cultural dynamics forming up around America’s milk and egg supply. Bloomberg agriculture reporter Elizabeth Elkin relates how producers are fighting to keep chocolate milk in U.S. schools while some farmers are betting consumers are willing to pay big for environmentally friendly eggs.

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After more than a year of pandemic, the U.S. economy is roaring back and is now expected to grow by 9.4% in the second quarter. That's fueling a mad scramble across U.S. industries desperately in need of workers. But for all the momentum, pockets of poverty and stagnation remain behind the rosy American facade. And no place represents that reality better than Youngstown, Ohio.

On this week's podcast, U.S.-based economics reporter Shawn Donnan digs into the decades-long economic slide in this Eastern Ohio city and the flailing attempts to revive it. More than 61,000 people worked in Youngstown's booming manufacturing industry in 1990, but this past March it employed just over 23,000. The latest blow occurred in 2019, when General Motors closed its doors in nearby Lordstown and took 4,500 jobs with it. A struggling effort to make Youngstown a hub of 3D printing, launched under former President Barack Obama, shows how hard it is for the Rust Belt to regain its former glory.

Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik discusses the International Monetary Fund's proposal to end the pandemic and Johannesburg economics reporter Prinesha Naidoo reports on the growing Covid-19 calamity in Africa, where delayed vaccination campaigns could leave 39 million more Africans in extreme poverty this year. And host Stephanie Flanders sits down with Germany's Olaf Scholz, the finance minister vying to replace Angela Merkel as chancellor, to ask about his campaign and why Germany is moving ahead with a controversial gas pipeline with Russia.

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The pandemic has upended the way the world shops, worships and especially how often we wash our hands. With the virus waning in many parts of the globe (while still raging in some places, like India and Brazil), economists and policymakers are debating whether our societal quarantine workarounds will persist -- or be jettisoned by summer's end. 

On this week's podcast, host Stephanie Flanders takes a rare break from moderating and hands the microphone to Sebastian Mallaby of the U.S.-based Council on Foreign Relations for a discussion of the pandemic's economic effects. William Dudley, former president of the New York Federal Reserve, explains why the inflation fears that have gripped the U.S. are likely just a short-term reaction to surging consumer demand. Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, suggests the Euro is emerging as a winner in the ``relative ugliness contest'' among world currencies. And, Flanders argues that, while countries including the U.K. have a new focus on ``living local,'' it's no real threat to globalization.

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