Stock Market Updates

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Oil Soars as Middle East Conflict Widens, Global markets sell off as disruption of Middle East energy supplies threatens to reignite inflation

Financial markets turned sharply risk-off on Tuesday as mounting fears of an inflation surge rippled across stocks and bonds worldwide.

Global equities slid as disruptions to Middle East energy supplies threatened to reignite price pressures. Crude oil gained around 5%, while European wholesale natural gas surged a punishing 40%.

United States

After opening sharply lower for the second consecutive session, US stocks staged a partial recovery but failed to match Monday's resilience, ending the day notably in the red. The major averages clawed well off their intraday lows yet remained firmly in negative territory.

The Dow Jones closed down 403 points or 0.8%, at 48,502, having plummeted more than 1,200 points earlier in the session to its lowest intraday level in nearly three months. The Nasdaq fell 232 points or 1%, to 22,516, and the S&P 500 slid 64 points or 0.9%, to 6,816 — both indexes having plunged as much as 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively, touching three-month lows at their worst.

WTI crude climbed above $75 a barrel, extending a two-day gain of approximately 11%. Brent traded near $81 a barrel as the widening Middle East conflict and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz kept supply risks firmly in focus.

India

Every $1 increase in crude oil raises India's annual import bill by approximately $2 billion.

Data indicate that a 10% rise in crude prices could raise the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) by 40 to 80 basis points, while widening the

current account deficit by approximately 30 basis points.

Beyond the energy sector, the paints, lubricants, aviation, and chemicals industries will face significant margin pressure, as oil and its derivatives account for 40% to 70% of their total raw material costs.

Prolonged tensions among the United States, Israel, and Iran are mounting pressure on India across its current account, inflation outlook, and currency stability. Elevated crude prices stand to raise the country's import bill, widen its current account deficit, weaken the rupee, stoke inflation, and trigger foreign capital outflows.

Indian markets are expected to open 2–2.5% lower as leveraged positions are unwound amid the geopolitical developments of the past two days.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Israel-Iran Conflict Rattles Global Markets

Israel's preemptive strike on Iran, carried out jointly with the US, has ignited geopolitical fears and driven global markets to open on a weak footing. Israeli-US military operations entered their third day with casualties reported on all sides, marking the most severe regional conflict in decades.

US stock futures fell sharply as the Iran–US conflict escalated into a broader Middle East war, triggering another spike in oil prices. Dow Jones futures slid approximately 550 points, S&P 500 futures dropped 63 points, and Nasdaq futures declined roughly 270 points in early Monday action.

Oil prices recorded their steepest single-session jump in four years after escalating US–Israeli military strikes against Iran shook global energy markets and effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Prices had initially surged more than 8% to multi-month highs as Iran and Israel intensified attacks, damaging tankers and disrupting shipments from the key producing region. Gains have since moderated to around 5%.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow chokepoint off Iran's coast through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and significant volumes of natural gas transit — has come to an abrupt halt, as tanker owners and commodity traders suspend operations pending clarity on the widening conflict.

Gold rose more than 2%, in early sessions, as renewed Middle East hostilities drove investors toward traditional safe-haven assets. The move extended the prior week's gain of over 3%, itself fueled by the growing deployment of US forces in the region.

Asian equities slid approximately 1.5%, with futures on major US and European indices also pulling back in the wake of the US–Israeli military action against Iran.

China's Two Sessions - Markets will also keep an eye on China’s annual “Two Sessions” meetings from March 4–11, where the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) is expected to be unveiled. The plan is likely to set a lower growth target in the 4.5–5% range for 2026, down from around 5 per cent last year, alongside a moderately expansionary fiscal stance, with the deficit ratio steady at 4 per cent of GDP.

Indian Auto stocks will react to the February numbers announced yesterday.

Nifty is poised to open 0.5%–0.7% lower, with selling pressure concentrated in oil-sensitive sectors — aviation, automobiles, and tyres — against a broad risk-off backdrop.

The Rupee faces headwinds from rising import costs for energy. Markets are likely to find their footing after the initial weakness, as leveraged positions are unwound through the truncated trading week.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Nasdaq Pulls Back Sharply as Nvidia Slumps, but Dow Inches Higher.

The benchmark S&P 500 and European equities finished lower as investors digested another blowout quarter from Nvidia — the world's most valuable company — yet remained uneasy about its valuation even as the chipmaker forecast first-quarter revenue of $78 billion.

The retreat on Wall Street was driven largely by a negative reaction to Nvidia's earnings, with the AI chipmaker tumbling 5.5%. Despite reporting better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter results and issuing upbeat guidance, Nvidia failed to satisfy elevated investor expectations, dragging semiconductor stocks lower and souring broader market sentiment.

The Dow's modest gain was cushioned by a sharp rise in Salesforce shares, which surged 4% after the customer relationship software maker reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results.

Diminishing case for an early easing

The path for Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh to deliver the swift rate cuts President Donald Trump has called for appears to be narrowing. Emerging economic resilience — rising CEO confidence, investor positioning around a hawkish shift among Fed policymakers — is complicating the case for early easing.

The IMF reinforced this view on Wednesday, noting that with U.S. growth expected to reach 2.4% this year from 2.2% last year, unemployment hovering near 4%, and inflation declining gradually, the Fed would have "only modest scope to lower the policy rate over the coming year" — likely just a single quarter-percentage-point cut.

Tech heavy asian indices fell in tandem with the NASDAQ

A global equity index retreated after touching a record high on Thursday, as lofty technology valuations weighed on sentiment following Nvidia's results.

In currency markets, the US Dollar Index recovered to 97.9, with the greenback gaining 0.5% against the British pound amid speculation of a March Bank of England rate cut

Tech-heavy indices in Japan and South Korea fell in tandem with the Nasdaq, reflecting deepening concerns about the sustainability of the AI-driven rally.

Nifty spent yesterday's session within a narrow 170-point range throughout the day, with low volatility, barring a couple of intraday swings.

Nifty remained directionless, with no momentum on either side. A band of 25650-25700 would remain an immediate hurdle, while 25250-25350 could offer support for Nifty in the short term. A breakout from this range could finally provide the catalyst for a sustained move.

Indian markets are poised to open subdued on softer global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Wall Street stocks tumbled on fears of AI-driven disruption

All three major U.S. indexes closed more than 1% lower in a broad selloff, as risk appetite was weighed down by two converging forces - persistent concerns over AI's disruptive potential and President Trump's erratic trade policy, which has been a primary source of market volatility throughout the first year of his second term.

The Dow Jones plunged 822 points, or 1.7%, as investors digested Trump's newly imposed 15% global tariff — a measure prompted by the Supreme Court's Friday ruling that struck down his emergency tariff authority. Renewed anxiety over AI disruption across software, consulting, and payments triggered broad-based selling. The S&P 500 fell 1%, slipping back into negative territory for 2026.

IBM led the declines, crashing 13%, its steepest single-day loss since October 2000 and its worst performance in more than 25 years — after Anthropic unveiled Claude Code, an AI tool capable of modernising Cobol, the legacy programming language that underpins IBM's core business. Accenture and Cognizant fell sharply in sympathy, and software stocks faced heavy selling pressure across the board.

Financials were the worst-performing S&P 500 sector, dropping 3% in their steepest decline since April. The selloff was partly triggered by Blue Owl Capital's suspension of redemptions, which reignited concerns about the fragility of private credit markets. KKR fell 9%, American Express declined 7.7%, and Capital One dropped 7.5%.

China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a ninth consecutive month. The one-year loan prime rate held at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5%.

Asian equity markets opened tentatively today, rattled by Wall Street's overnight losses and clouded by uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy and rising geopolitical tensions.

Crude oil edged up to $66.52 a barrel, supported by the resumption of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks on Thursday against a backdrop of American military buildup in the Middle East.

The Nifty extended its winning streak for a second consecutive session, climbing 141 points to settle at 25,713. The index opened firmly higher after the US Supreme Court's 6-3 ruling struck down President Trump's broad emergency tariffs, but corrected nearly 160 points from its morning peak of 25,771 to hit 25,609 before rebounding over 110 points. Nifty failed to clear the 25,885 resistance. A decisive move above it could propel Nifty toward 26,000, while 25,370 remains a key support level.

Indian markets are poised to open lower amid cautious global cues.

We anticipate a recovery from lower levels, supported by continued short covering on the monthly derivative expiry day and emerging buying interest from FPIs in the cash markets.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Iran War Clouds Send Markets Sliding

Wall Street ended lower on Thursday, with losses in private equity companies and weakness in Walmart and Apple, while earnings-driven gains in industrials limited losses.

The weakness on Wall Street partly reflected a negative reaction to Walmart's earnings, with the retail giant slumping 1.4 per cent. The company provided weaker-than-expected earnings guidance for the current year.

Negative sentiment may also have been driven by a continued spike in crude oil prices amid concerns of a military conflict between the U.S. and Iran.

The major averages finished the day off their lows of the session but still in negative territory. The Dow slid 267 points to 49,395, the Nasdaq fell 70 points to 22682, and the S&P 500 dipped 19 points to 6861.

President Donald Trump said Thursday that he will decide whether to launch military strikes against Iran in the next 10 days.

Private equity companies slid after Blue Owl Capital announced it would sell $1.4 billion in assets and freeze redemptions at one of its funds to manage debt and return capital.  Blue Owl tumbled 6%. Apollo Global Management, Ares, KKR & Co and Carlyle Group all fell between 1.9% and 5.2% as Blue Owl's troubles added to recent worries about credit quality and lenders' exposure to software stocks.

The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in December amid a surge in imports, and the goods shortfall in 2025 was the highest on record despite tariffs on foreign-manufactured merchandise.

Crude oil jumped above $66 as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran escalated, reaching its highest level since July after climbing more than 7% over two days. The market is pricing in potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, which handles approximately 20% of global oil supply, amid a significant US military buildup in the Middle East.

The US Dollar Index rose to its highest level in over a week, near 97.80, after FOMC minutes revealed that officials are not rushing to cut rates, with several policymakers noting potential hikes if inflation remains elevated. The hawkish tone pressured EUR/USD down 0.11% to $1.18 and drove gains against most major currencies.

Gold prices remained above $5,000 per troy ounce, supported by escalating US-Iran tensions and geopolitical uncertainty, despite a stronger dollar. The precious metal gained over 2% in the previous session as investors sought safety amid potential military action in the Middle East and failed peace talks between the US and Iran and Russia and Ukraine.

Asian markets opened lower today, following Wall Street's decline, as sentiment was dampened by the military buildup in the Middle East and concerns over oil supply disruptions.

The Nifty snapped its three-session winning streak yesterday, plunging 1.4% to close at 25,454, its lowest close since the Budget session (February 03, 2026).

Below 25372, Nifty could extend its fall towards its 200-day EMA placed at 25233. On the higher side, the 25550-25600 band could act as short-term resistance.

Indian markets are poised to open moderately higher in line with positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Markets Inch Up Amid AI Cost Concerns

U.S. stocks edged higher Tuesday after a sluggish open, lifted by a rebound in technology shares and support from financials.

Amazon shares swung violently after shedding roughly $450 billion in market value over nine consecutive sessions. Investors are scrutinising the company's plan to spend $200 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026—a nearly 60% increase that significantly exceeded Wall Street expectations.

US Futures are pointing lower, with Nasdaq 100 futures declining amid concerns about AI's disruption across industries and the burden of heavy capital spending.

Gold slipped to $4,919 per ounce yesterday as metals markets stayed cautious ahead of key U.S. data releases: industrial production and the Fed's January meeting minutes today, PCE inflation on Friday. December personal income and spending figures will also draw attention, as they carry the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

Crude oil fell to $62.25 per barrel, while Brent declined to $68.13, ahead of U.S.-Iran ministerial negotiations.

The New Zealand dollar weakened after the central bank signalled that monetary policy must remain accommodative to sustain the economic recovery.

Most Asian markets are closed due to lunar holidays, while Japanese equities are trading higher today despite lingering AI-driven anxiety in global markets.

Despite a weak start yesterday on a weekly expiry day, the index staged an intraday turnaround, surging over 150 points from its morning lows. The rebound was broad-based, with nearly all sectoral indices finishing in the green.

Nifty managed to register follow-up gains in yesterday's trade. Next resistance for the Nifty is seen near 26000, while levels of 25570 and 25372 could offer support in the near term.

Indian markets are poised to open moderately higher in line with positive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

RBI Circular on Capital Market Exposures to Impact Liquidity in Derivative Markets

The US stock market's recent moves can be characterised by a shift from cautious optimism to a sharp mid-week sell-off, which was ultimately stabilised by a cooling inflation report. Last week began with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 hovering around key psychological levels (50,000 and 7,000, respectively). However, sentiment soured from Thursday, February 12, as the market aggressively "punished" the software sector.

The Indian market was a tale of two halves over the last fortnight - an initial rally driven by a historic trade agreement, followed by a sharp correction triggered by sticky inflation and global tech jitters. The US-India landmark deal initially boosted export-oriented sectors such as textiles and auto components.

The Nifty IT index has declined by more than 14% in 2026, and the sector has shed over ₹1.56 lakh crore in market value in recent weeks.

The RBI's new circular tightens banks' capital market exposures, banning intraday margin funding to brokers (limited to secured settlement gaps) and requiring 100% cash backing for bank guarantees in proprietary trading.

The circular will raise costs for brokers and prop desks, curbing leverage and liquidity in derivatives, where prop trading drives 40% of F&O turnover.

The Nifty index fell on Friday, plunging 336 points, or 1.3%, to close at 25,471. Nifty violated its crucial support levels of the 20 and 50-day EMAs. The next support lies at the lower band of the gap formed on February 3, 2026 (25,108), though the 200-day EMA at 25,215 may provide interim support.

Market breadth deteriorated sharply, underscoring ongoing profit-booking in midcaps and smallcaps.

Indian markets are poised to open lower on cautious local cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Asian Stocks Hit Record Highs, Nifty Primed for All-Time High Rally Above Key 26,000 Resistance

Asian stocks rose to a record high on Thursday, while the dollar firmed a touch against most currencies, except the yen, after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data dented near-term rate-cut expectations, setting the stage for the inflation report on Friday.

The US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, double expectations, while unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.3%. The robust labour data pushed Treasury yields higher and prompted traders to pare back their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026.

Financial services stocks JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Charles Schwab fell by more than 2% amid concerns about AI-driven disruption in wealth management. Software companies Salesforce and Intuit also declined more than 4% as AI-powered tools threaten traditional business models.

Shopify shares surged after beating Q4 revenue estimates and announcing a $2 billion share repurchase program. The e-commerce platform also provided solid first-quarter revenue growth guidance, boosting investor confidence.

Mattel shares cratered after Q4 earnings and revenue missed estimates, with the toy maker guiding for declining adjusted EPS in 2026 despite expected sales growth. The stock hit its lowest level since last April on the disappointing forecast.

Gold futures surged 1.3% to over $5,090 per ounce while silver jumped more than 5% to $84.65 yesterday. The rally was fueled by a softer US dollar and disappointing economic data, including flat December retail sales.

Oil prices edged up amid concerns about escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

The rupee slid 12 paise to 90.70/$ amid rising crude and precious metal prices, fueling importer demand for dollars.

The Nifty extended its winning streak to a fourth consecutive session, eking out a modest 18-point gain to finish at 25,953.

Nifty continues to hold its uptrend with its level above all key moving averages. Immediate resistance for the Nifty is seen near 26000; above this, the index could extend the rally towards a fresh all-time high of 26373. On the downside, the 25700-25780 band could provide strong support for the index.

Indian markets are poised to open subdued on softer global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Major US stock indexes were mixed on Tuesday. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed lower, while the Dow edged up to its third record close in a row, as investors digested disappointing retail sales figures and waited for a key labour market report.

U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly unchanged in December as households scaled back spending on motor vehicles and other big-ticket items, potentially setting consumer spending and the economy on a slower growth path heading into the new year.

Treasury yields fell after U.S. data suggested the economy may be softening.

The yen was up again in the wake of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's decisive weekend election victory.

Lyft forecast first-quarter adjusted core profit below expectations on Tuesday, hit by severe U.S. winter weather, seasonal cost pressures, and posted a surprise operating loss for 2025, sending its shares down 16% in after-hours trading.

Robinhood Markets fell 6.2% in late trading after reporting fourth-quarter revenue growth that trailed Wall Street estimates. The disappointing results overshadowed other metrics as investors reassessed growth expectations for the online brokerage platform.

Shares of LPL Financial fell 8.3%, Charles Schwab declined 7.4%, and Morgan Stanley dropped 2.5% after tech platform Altruist introduced a new AI-powered tax planning tool.

Back home, Nifty rose for the third straight session, fueled by robust global cues, gaining 67 points to close at 25,935. Despite the weekly expiry yesterday, the index remained largely range-bound, oscillating within a tight 100-point consolidation zone.

Nifty continues to hold its uptrend with its level above all key moving averages. Short-term resistance for the Nifty is seen near 26000, above which the index could extend the rally towards a fresh all-time high above 26373. On the downside, the 25600-25670 band could provide strong support for the index.

Our markets are gradually inching higher as foreign investors cover their short in derivatives and become selective buyers in the cash markets.

Indian markets are poised to open higher today on conducive global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Dow at New All-Time High; Broad-Based Rally Lifts Indian Markets

World stocks rallied on Monday, propelled by optimism over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's thumping election win and a tech rebound, while the dollar slumped amid reports that China has advised financial institutions to curb exposure to U.S. bonds.

U.S. stocks moved mostly higher over the course of the trading day on Monday, extending the strong upward move seen in last Friday's session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new all-time high of 50135, rising modestly as markets recovered from last week's volatility. The S&P 500 climbed 0.5%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.9%, with technology stocks powering the rally.

Oracle jumped 9.6% after an upgrade, while AppLovin soared over 13% following a retraction of critical allegations. The Information Technology sector gained 1.4%, leading the S&P 500 higher as investors returned to beaten-down software names.

Investors await delayed January employment data on Wednesday and CPI inflation figures on Friday. The data releases will provide crucial guidance on Federal Reserve interest rate policy for the remainder of 2026. The monthly job report is expected to show employment climbed by 70,000 jobs in January after rising by 50,000 jobs in December, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.4 per cent.

Oil prices eased slightly on Tuesday as traders gauged the potential for supply disruptions, following U.S. guidance on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz that kept attention squarely on tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Nifty kicked off the week strongly, surging 173 points to close at 25867. It staged a 100-point recovery from the day's low after early profit booking, signalling clear bull control as it ended near the session high.

Short-term resistance looms near 26000; a break above could propel it toward fresh all-time highs beyond 26373. On the downside, the 25450–25500 zone remains a strong support.

Indian markets are positioned to open higher on conducive global cues.