StocktonAfterClass

Today is September 19,2024.  Israel has blown up pagers and walki-talkis in Lebanon and is bombing inside of Lebanon.  Hezbollah is firing across the border.  It appears that bad things are afoot.  Alas, I do not have a podcast on the 2006 Lebanon War.  Israelis (and neutral observers) generally see that Israel lost both of those wars, or at least left with serious wounds and its goals not achieved.  

It appears that both sides are prepared for an extensively damaging conflict if this escalates. 

Somehow I seems appropriate to repost this podcast.  That was a day that changed American History (and maybe world history). 

It is based on notes I made at the time, so it is very accurate about how we felt at the time.  

This is what can happen when you get out of the neighborhood 

In fact, I did once encounter a situation where some security issues were at risk.  A friend in intelligence told me how many nuclear weapons the Israelis had.  This was probably 30 years ago.  He said I could never repeat what he told me because he could be imprisoned for revealing such secret information.   I was not at risk but he was.  I kept quiet. 

Some of the people involved in the Uncommitted movement, especially Arab-Americans, feel betrayed by the Democrats and are planning to abandon them.  Many will vote for Jill Stein.  Others are trying to engage the Democrats to see what leverage they can use to extract concessions.  These are not easy choices.  This is a discussion of some of the issues and arguments in this debate. 

Just yesterday the Israelis bombed a mosque with a school.  It was filled with refugees who had hoped that Israel would not bomb such a place. They may have killed 90 people, although they say the numbers are fabricated and anyway that was a terrorist command and control center, and anyway why were all those people there, and anyway we had warned them. 

Killing people during war, even innocent people, is not in itself genocide.  It takes more.  This is a discussion of the South African document last fall, accusing Israel of Genocide.  

There is a second podcast on how the High Court of Justice responded to this accusation.  

And there is also a separate podcast on why Netanyahu and others (including the Palestinian leader they just assassinated) should be arrested for war crimes.   

Clarification:  Under international law the Golan Province is Syrian territory.  It was conquered in 1967.  The Israelis consider it a part of Israel itself.  They claimed it, and then Donald Trump recognized it.  They even created a settlement called Trump Heights to show their appreciation.  The population of that province (apart from Jewish settlers) are Druze.  Majdal Shams, where a rocket from Lebanon hit a playing field and killed 14 Druze children,  is in the Golan Province 

 There are Druze in Syria, Lebanon, and Israel.  Hezbollah is trying to improve their relations with the Lebanese Druze.  They insist that they did not fire that rocket.  It does not make sense that they would although it appeared to come from a Hezbollah location.  Some observers think it was a rocket that went off course. 

Glitch?  Did I say "the fraternity brothers of the University of North Carolina?"  That was what I meant to say (quoting Netanyahu).

This was written three days after Trump was lightly wounded in an assassination attempt in Pennsylvania.    It is based on patterns of violence rather than hard knowledge.  I hope it helps. 

John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago is one of the very top strategic analysts in this country.  He is of the Realist School.  He thinks we should look at the reality of power, and that each country should look after its own interests.  

Earlier in this month, he delivered a talk in Australia on the Gaza War.  He came up with data I had never heard and insights I had never considered.  This is a faithful summary of his key points.  It will change the way you think about this conflict. 

And the talk itself is easily accessible on the internet.  Just search for his name, then find the Australian talk.   you will be glad you did. 

This is the second of two podcasts on my visit to Palestine in early June, 2024.  If you have not listened to the first podcast, please do so before listening to this  one.