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Biden Will Be a One Term President

I came up with this insight nearly three years ago.  If I had posted it back then, you could have thought about it all this time and looked for little signs here and there.  With Joe creating a campaign structure, it may look a bit different in late 2023.  

Still, it is only 8 minutes or so long so you will not sacrifice a lot of time listening to it. 

And if you haven't listened to the podcasts on the three indictments (Mara-Lago Documents, January 6 Insurrection, and Georgia Election Interference) those are well worth your time. 

As is the Dominion v Fox News podcast, also rather short. 

Have fun. 

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This is the third indictment of Donald Trump relevant to the election of 2020.  I have done podcasts on each of these.  

The Mara-Lago Documents case

The January 6 indictments. 

Now the Atlanta/Fulton County, Georgia Indictments. 

I also did a podcast on the Dominion Voting Machine defamation case against Fox News, which was settled out of court. 

If you listen to these four podcasts, you will know more than any other kid on your block. 

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This is a discussion of the January 6 Indictment for Insurrection handed down in early August.  There is an earlier podcast on the Mara-Lago stolen documents case, and one on the Dominion Voting Machine defamation lawsuit against Fox News. 

There were some glitches in this podcast.

The Vice President is President of the Senate, not Speaker. 

Giuliani showed the Georgia committee an edited video, not an edited photo. 

There is a "crime-fraud" exception, not exemption. 

But Rudy Giuliani really did talk about carrying around a USB port.  That was his mistake, not mine.  

Let me clarify one point.  Five of the targeted states had a Democratic governor (Wisconsin, New Mexico, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada).  New Mexico and Nevada also had Democratic majorities in their legislature.  

I saw an interview that I did not include.  It was with George Connally, a former Republican affiliated with the Lincoln Project. He is a noted attorney and was asked how he would defend Trump.  He said that the evidence was exceptionally strong.  If he were Trump's attorney his goal would be to keep him out of prison.  He would urge him to seek a plea deal in which Trump would plead guilty and agree to leave the public arena.  In exchange the government would drop all charges.  That was the deal that Spiro Agnew worked out.   Admit guilt, no prison, disappear. 

And it would very much be in the public interest that this happen.  

I think everyone can see that Trump would never accept such a settlement.  My suspicion is that he thinks he can win the election and make the whole thing go away. 

Oops.  The Dog That Didn't Bark.  I forgot to mention that Smith did not include incitement as a part of the indictment.  Trump's rally people were told that if they did not fight for their country they would not have a country to defend.  And they should march down to the capital.  And his silence as hand-to-hand combat went on for five or six hours.  None of that was mentioned.  Speculation is that it would have had to prove motivem,  would have been hard to prove, and might have muddled the issues.  

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This is the kind of podcast I try to avoid. a discussion of an issue that is ongoing.  The problem is that it might evolve in a different direction and I would be exposed as someone who had seriously misunderstood the issues or missed key points.  I remember writing a podcast on the Ukraine-Russia controversy.  The next morning when I went into my office to record it, I realized that Russia had invaded Ukraine as I slept.  (Darn you, Putin.  He had said he was not going to invade.  Liar, Liar.  Pants on fire).  That new development did not affect my observations (which were good) but I decided to add a couple of extra paragraphs to update the commentary. 

For over 30 months now (it is August 2023) the Israeli public has been in turmoil, resisting the extremist Netanyahu government.  ("The most extreme I have  seen. And that goes back to Golda Meir," according to Joe Biden).  Netanyahu is trying to push through  a change in the legal system so that the Supreme Court could no longer reject a law that violated its Basic Laws (the closest thing Israel has to a constitution).   Sometimes there have been protests involving 200,000 people.  (And counter-protests).  Many suspect Netanyahu is also trying to figure out how to get himself freed from prosecution. 

Israel is now seriously polarized around these issues.  Why and how did this happen?  I offer some hypotheses based on some social science theories, some comments by Israeli analysts, and some personal observations.  

And I draw some parallels with our own country, which is also polarized.  

Note:  I included 2023 in the title because someone said, "you need to do that.  You will have to do another podcast on this topic in the future, and your listeners need to know which particular crisis you are discussing." 

Glitch:  Somewhere in the middle of this podcast, I used the wrong word.  I have forgotten what it is but you will notice it.  Sorry about that. 

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Let's start with a Trigger Warning:  Not only am I going to tell you about this book, and about its impact on American society.  I am also going to read excerpts to you.  You will not find these passages easy to hear.  

This is about Reconstruction in South Carolina where the author (Thomas Dixon Jr.) lived.  He was a prominent minister, actor, author, and local hero.  He was also a racist. But he was not unique.   He had a lot of fans.  His book sold 100,000 copies and the play he wrote on the story in the book was seen by perhaps a million people.  The film Birth of a Nation dramatized the story, and President Wilson showed it in the White House. 

There was resistance to this story, but there is no doubt the book was far more popular.  
And its ideas persist:  the need to stifle the black vote, for example. 

Well, enough introduction.  Spend 30 minutes with this podcast and you will understand some things you had not understood before. 

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I have  a two-part podcast on Gandhi.  This is Part I. It focuses on  Gandhi's concept or strategy of Satyagraha.  He invented that term himself.  It means Soul  Force.  We might say non-violent resistance.  It is pacifist, but not passive.  it is definitely confrontational.  It was rooted in deep moral concepts, but also in Indian culture and history.  Maybe this podcast will make you want to read the book by Rudolph and Rudolph which discusses those cultural traditions in depth. 

Gandhi assumed that within every opponent there were good forces with which one could negotiate.  Think of Martin Luther King in Selma.  He assumed that most white people did not like what was going on in the South but they were simply unaware.  If they saw the ugly side of racism with their own eyes, they would do something.  MLK had taken his inspiration and strategy from Gandhi.  And it worked. 

The second podcast, which I will post in a couple of weeks, is entitled  "Why I Killed Gandhi."  It is the statement Gandhi's assassin read to the court when he was sentenced to die. I suspect you will find it shocking, given that it is logical and reasonable and spoken by a very literate intellectual person.  

 

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This was the final lecture in my class on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, the last time I taught that class.   

The thesis is that none of the main political science models for how this conflict will end are correct.  But History (capital H) does not like intractable conflicts.  SOMETHING will happen.  And History (capital H) will not ask us what we think.  Most likely, History (capital H) will choose something we don't like and something we cannot anticipate.  This is called The Black Swan. 

Let me say, I do not think Israel will cease to exist.  But what I do think  is that there will be massive bloodletting and significant depopulation.  And the country will be transformed by the visit of this Black Swan so much that those of us around today will not recognize it. 

I have always been very cautious to avoid reaching conclusions based on the headlines.  What is happening today may look exceptionally dramatic and transformative, but most likely it is just a flash in the pan.  Nothing will be changed.  

But I see some new patterns that look significant.  Attacks on isolated settlements or on settlers in cars,  not conducted by organized groups but by individuals or perhaps by local bands of resistance.   And there is what local people are calling the Knife Intifada (uprising) in which individuals stab other individuals.  All of these are very hard to identify and remove.  

And I have not even mentioned the hard right Israelis who conduct widespread vigilante  attacks against Palestinians, and even against other Israelis.  

Nor have I mentioned that the Israelis are spreading themselves very thinly across the West Bank, hoping to incorporate much of that area into Israel itself.  What they plan to do with the Palestinians who live there is not clear.  But it will not be good.  

When the Palestinians strike, the Israeli security forces always,  ALWAYS, respond with great force.  They conduct massive bombing campaigns into Gaza.  As with other militaries, they seem to be fighting the last war.  But think about it.  When was the last time Israel fought a national army?  Was it 1973?  In Lebanon (1982) they fought Hezbollah but that was a local resistance force, not a conventional army.  During the two Intifadahs (1989 and 2000)  that was against localized individuals or groups.  

Note:  My wife told me not to discuss this scenario, but the Israeli security forces discuss it so I am in good company.  

Note also that this lacks the normal traits of my podcasts, introductory music for example. 

I hope this makes you think.  

Update:  July 4, 2023.  A major new poll shows only 35% of Israeli Jews have confidence in the future security of the state.  Are we surprised?  Headlines report someone driving a truck into a crowd in Tel Aviv.  Someone else shoots into a crowd.  Meanwhile, the Israeli military went deep into Jenin and its refugee camp, thinking this would restore security.  But look at the examples listed above:  truck attack, shooting, knives.  Were any of those produced in a weapons factory in Jenin?  

Update: July, 2023.  A fifth of all Israelis have foreign passports. 

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How can a totally innocent man be unequivocally identified as a rapist?  

And be sentenced to 28 years in prison? 

And when the false conviction is exposed and the case thrown out, is there any way for the person who made the false identification to find peace?  

This is the story of Alice Sebold, whose famous books, The Lovely Bones, and Lucky tell the stories of a young girl and a college freshman who get raped. 

And what happens next. 

  

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This is a discussion of the indictments in the Mara-Lago documents case.  If you are confused, and don't want to read the 60 page indictment with its 37 counts, this may be a short cut for you.  It addresses some context, some points of law, some background issues.  

There are a couple of glitches in this podcast.  
A fine would be $250,000, not $250. 

And a name in a string of names is wrong. 

And for those who are careful listeners, those two rulings by Judge Cannon were so closely linked that they might be considered one ruling rather than two. 

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In 1993, 30 years ago on April 19, the totalitarian government in Washington, the New Babylon, the entity that must be destroyed, exposed its true nature.  What happened on that day became an inflection point, a call to action. 

This podcast is a followup on my earlier podcast on Violent White Nationalism.  It explains the logic of those who agree with that opening paragraph. 

Don't expect to fell good at the end of this podcast.