Document: Science and Technology in China's Modernization Released through The Black Vault, this declassified CIA record is a National Intelligence Estimate, NIE 13-7.2-86.1, from June 1986, 53 pages in length. The document is a product of the Director of Central Intelligence, with the National Foreign Intelligence Board concurring, except as noted in the text. Participating agencies include the Central Intelligence Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, the Treasury, and Energy. This Estimate deals with a central issue in US policy and China's modernization plans: the outlook for science and technology. The Estimate assesses the S&T environment, the prospects for significant advances in priority areas over the next 15 years, and the effects of S&T achievements and failures on both China and the outside world. The following is an excerpt from the Estimate: "The principal assumptions underlyi