Strait Talk

It was a record turnout for Turkiye's presidential and parliamentary elections. But after more than 55 million votes were cast, no candidate passed the 50% threshold in the first round, setting the stage for a run-off scheduled for May 28. The record number of voters coincided with several new political parties entering the race for the first time. The People's alliance led by the ruling AK party is set to maintain its majority, as the country waits anxiously for the presidential run-off later this month.

Guests:

Helin Sari Ertem- Associate Professor at Medeniyet University

Vehbi Baysan- Associate Professor at Ibn Haldun University

Valeria Giannotta- Director of CeSPI's Observatory on Türkiye

For decades, Western countries have engaged the African continent with a mixture of aid packages that often came with strings attached. Straddled with the legacy of colonialism, many African countries were often left dependent on their former rulers to develop their economies. But over the past decade, new players started engaging the African continent, offering alternatives to the West. Russia with its security and defence deals, and China with its massive infrastructure projects and loans. But now Turkiye is also trying to get into the mix, with its own unique approach.

Guests:

Alex Vines

Director of Africa Programme at Chatham House

Jihad Mashamoun

Research Fellow at Exeter IAIS

One of the biggest hurdles in US-Turkish relations has been the stalled sale of F-16 fighter jets, that Ankara requested back in October 2021. Being stuck in Congress for a year and half, a small part of the deal could be about to move forward. The US State Department recently approved the sale of F-16 software upgrades to Turkiye, in a deal worth $259 million.

US President Joe Biden has notified Congress, putting the onus on them to officially approve the sale. But the agreement is just a fraction of a much wider package that Turkiye is seeking, which includes 40 F-16 fighters and dozens of modernisation kits, worth about 20 billion dollars. The deal was a compromise after Turkiye was removed by the US from the F-35 fighter programme, due to Washington's complaints that Ankara had purchased air defence systems from Russia. But this latest deal being pushed by President Biden comes after Turkyie's approval of Finland's entry into NATO, and easing tensions with Greece.

Guests:

Jaroslaw Strozyk

Former Director at Polish Military Intelligence

Ahmet Keser

Associate Professor at Hasan Kalyoncu University

Bitter enemies Iran and Israel have been fighting a shadowy proxy war in Syria and beyond for years. But this low intensity conflict is seeing more and more armed UAVs. Even the US has thrown itself into the mix, including a drone strike that was launched in Syria earlier this month. The US military says it killed a suspected Daesh member who was planning an attack in Europe.

Just a few weeks before that, the US said it retaliated against Iran-linked groups in Syria, after a drone attack killed an American contractor. US intelligence said the UAV strike was of Iranian origin. Earlier this month, Israel also said it shot down an Iranian drone that flew into its airspace from Syria. Just hours earlier, Israel had launched air strikes on Iranian targets in the country. Iran has also accused Israel of using unmanned aerial vehicles to launch attacks deep inside its borders. On February 2, three drones reportedly attacked a military site in the city of Isfahan, which Tehran blamed on Israel. And Iran said it foiled a similar drone attack in the same city earlier this month, adding the attempt didn't not cause any damage.

Guests:

Federico Borsari

Leonardo Fellow at CEPA

Mohammed Soliman

Technology and Cyber Security Analyst

For more than a year, an estimated $300 billion dollars that belongs to Russia's central bank, has been sitting in accounts frozen by the US and its allies. Immediately after Russia launched its attack on Ukraine, the US and several Western governments, blocked Moscow from accessing those funds. Now debate is growing both in Washington and Brussels on what to do with that money.

Some US lawmakers are calling for it to be sent to Ukraine, to fund its war against Russia. Since February last year, the US and its allies have allocated nearly $200 billion dollars in support for Ukraine. But more than 13 months into the war, concerns are growing about sustaining that level of support. Tax payers in the West, already burdened by rising inflation, have been pressuring lawmakers for relief. One US senator is working on a new bill that would allow President Joe Biden to seize Russian central bank assets and make them available to Ukraine. But would that open up more legal and political problems and what precedent would it set?

Guests:

Evan Criddle

Professor at William and Mary Law School

Gregory Simons

Researcher at Institute for Russian and Eurasian Studies

Egypt's Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry has paid an official visit to Ankara where he met his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu. The two ministers said they are taking concrete steps in reappointing ambassadors and will enhance cooperation to ensure stability in Libya. The meeting comes just weeks after Cavusoglu made a landmark visit to Cairo, the first of its kind in a decade.

Shoukry's visit to Turkiye is his second since March when he toured the country's south in a show of solidarity following the February 6th earthquakes. Diplomatic ties between the two countries had been cut off after a 2013 coup in Egypt overthrew then-president Mohammed Morsi. But the recent meetings have raised expectations that full diplomatic relations will be restored soon. Their rapproachment follows others in the region, including Iran, which recently reopened its embassy in Saudi Arabia. Bahrain and Qatar also announced restoration of diplomatic ties, ending a years-long dispute.

Guests:

Jane Kinninmont

Policy and Impact Director at European Leadership Network

Cengiz Tomar

Professor at Marmara University

America's foes, and even some friends have called for changes in how the world does business. Long dominating international trade, the US dollar also gave America unrivaled power to spend, lend and punish countries unilaterally, by shutting them out of the global financial system. But that could be about to change. Countries like China, Russia, and others across the Middle East, Latin America and the Indo Pacific are calling for less reliance on the US dollar. But when did it all start and what hurdles has the US greenback faced over the decades?

Guests:

Geoffrey Williams

Head of Research and Innovation at MUST

Guido Cozzi

Professor of Macroeconomics at St Gallen University

A mysterious helicopter crash in northern Iraq a few weeks ago, is adding the latest sore point between Turkyie and its southern neighbor. The Turkish Foreign Ministry announced it was closing its airspace for flights to and from Sulaimaniyah airport in northern Iraq, citing intensified activities in the region by the PKK terror group. The decision came after two helicopters crashed in Dohuk, killing all those on board. But what alarmed Turkiye, was the aircraft had been carrying PKK-linked terrorists from Syria.

The incident fueled claims by Ankara that the PKK was in possession of helicopters, and that it had infiltrated Sulaymaniyah airport. The helicopter's route also raised eyebrows, as it used an irregular flight plan to reach Sulaimaniyah airport from the YPG-controlled city of al-Hasakah in Northern Syria. The closure follows a similar ban placed backed in 2017, after Turkey criticized continued PKK activities in the area. Ankara has launched several operations against the PKK and its affiliates in recent years, including Operation Claw-Sword in Northern Syria and Iraq

Guests:

Rich Outzen

Former US Diplomat

Ahmet Uysal

Director at ORSAM

It's being called the world's first drone carrier. Commissioned on Monday, the TCG Anadolu, which began construction in 2016, was built mostly with domestic parts. It will also be equipped with the country's latest UAVs, the TB3 Bayraktar drones. The multi purpose assault ship, is expected to play a vital role in Türkiye's maritime security, espeically in the heavily contested eastern Mediterraean.

Guests:

Zoltan Egeresi

Political Analyst

Tarik Oguzlu

Professor at Aydin University

The last time a Greek defence minister visited Turkiye was back in 2002. Over those two decades, the neighbors saw their relations swing from co-operation towards confrontation. The last few years were especially tense, following a series of standoffs both in the open sea, and along their border. But following the devastating February 6th quakes that struck southern Turkiye, Greece stepped forward as one of the first countries to provide relief supplies and rescue teams.

Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar, together with his Greek counterpart Nikos Pana-gio-top-oulos, held a joint news conference in Hatay, which suffered some of the most damage from the quakes. Akar spoke on how the two countries needed to resolve their differences through dialogue.

Guests:

Emete Gozuguzelli

Associate Professor at ASBU

Dimitris Tsahouras

Senior Research Fellow at ELIAMEP